BrownsBoard predicts...Republican Nominee
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If Trump wins California and Pennsylvania, he'll most likely reach 1237. If he loses either of those two, we're going to a contested convention. Latest polls make it look like PA is locked up, so all eyes on CA.
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Trump.
Cruz has a frozen bird beak face.
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Cruz be crazy. Kasich is living a pipe dream. Trump 2016. If they go against who the people want (voted for in the majority) they will lose.
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Cruz be crazy. Kasich is living a pipe dream. Trump 2016. If they go against who the people want (voted for in the majority) they will lose.
Cruz be crazy. Kasich is living a pipe dream. Trump 2016. If they go against who the people want (voted for in the majority) they will lose.
Except the people haven't voted for him in the majority. Normally it's in the 30-40% range, with cruz not very far behind. Meaning, the majority of people don't want Trump (also don't want Cruz). This is why an alternative vote system would work well in primaries - I'm guessing most people who voted Cruz were voting 'anyone but trump' while most people who voted trump were voting 'trump please'.
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Cruz be crazy. Kasich is living a pipe dream. Trump 2016. If they go against who the people want (voted for in the majority) they will lose.
Except the people haven't voted for him in the majority. Normally it's in the 30-40% range, with cruz not very far behind. Meaning, the majority of people don't want Trump (also don't want Cruz). This is why an alternative vote system would work well in primaries - I'm guessing most people who voted Cruz were voting 'anyone but trump' while most people who voted trump were voting 'trump please'.
Except the people haven't voted for him in the majority. Normally it's in the 30-40% range, with cruz not very far behind. Meaning, the majority of people don't want Trump (also don't want Cruz). This is why an alternative vote system would work well in primaries - I'm guessing most people who voted Cruz were voting 'anyone but trump' while most people who voted trump were voting 'trump please'.
You have a grasp of American politics better than most Americans. I think that is an accurate assessment. If you are opposed to Trump you are down to two choices with either Kasish or Cruz with most seeing Cruz as the better option because he was won more states than Kasich who has only won his home state. Trump has a base of support who will support him no matter what and even Trump said himself he could kill someone on the street and they would still support him. It was always argued Trump benefited from a large field of candidates. There are states Trump may not have won if the field wasn't crowded and in Wisconsin when the field is down to three Trump gets blown out.
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Trump won MA with like 50% of the vote and 5 competitors. He's going to win PA, NY, CT, RI, and so on and so on.
But the argument that "well only 50% voted for him so 50% are against him" is completely re-tarded, because you could say that about every single election that's ever taken place.
Also:
- Kasich isn't a good option because he's mathematically eliminated and also can't win a contested convention unless he wins 7 more states.
- Trump is still on track for 1237, will finish around 1300 if he keeps pace
- Cruz is basically mathematically eliminated, he will be when NY and PA seal the deal in a couple weeks.
- The majority of unpledged first ballot delegates are going to vote for the person who won the most pledged delegates, which will be Trump. If he's short of 1237 but still close to 1200 he will still win the nomination on the first ballot - which will not lead to a contested convention. Trump's campaign is not sitting idly by, they are actively working in the delegate selection process.
Trump has to do very, very poorly the rest of the way to have any shot at a contested convention, it's not going to happen - no matter what the talking heads on Fox and CNN have to say about it, they are dishonest and only want to push the story. Fox and Murdoch are very anti-Trump, too.
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It is more like only a third of the electorate have supported Trump thus far with two thirds voting for others. The map favors Trump in a few weeks in the north east but then it goes back and forth for a while until California which will probably make or break it. It will be interesting to see how Kasich does in Pennsylvania and the north east where he might even beat Cruz but that doesn't hurt Cruz as much as it hurts Trump and in fact will help Cruz by holding down delegates Trump would probably get if Kasich was not in the race.
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It is more like only a third of the electorate have supported Trump thus far with two thirds voting for others. The map favors Trump in a few weeks in the north east but then it goes back and forth for a while until California which will probably make or break it. It will be interesting to see how Kasich does in Pennsylvania and the north east where he might even beat Cruz but that doesn't hurt Cruz as much as it hurts Trump and in fact will help Cruz by holding down delegates Trump would probably get if Kasich was not in the race.
It is more like only a third of the electorate have supported Trump thus far with two thirds voting for others.
Ok, if Trump was running by himself then that would mean he'd get nearly 100% of the vote so everybody likes him then right? Since if he gets 40% that means 60% hate him and would never vote for him.
Similar to the thought policing manipulation polls that you have fallen for, like:
- 1 on 1 Trump beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Cruz beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Kasich beats Clinton by far, but the others lose.
Trump is currently getting more democrats and independents by far than Cruz and Kasich, so I don't buy any of the arguments that defend the manipulation polls.
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It is more like only a third of the electorate have supported Trump thus far with two thirds voting for others.
Ok, if Trump was running by himself then that would mean he'd get nearly 100% of the vote so everybody likes him then right? Since if he gets 40% that means 60% hate him and would never vote for him.
Similar to the thought policing manipulation polls that you have fallen for, like:
- 1 on 1 Trump beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Cruz beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Kasich beats Clinton by far, but the others lose.
Trump is currently getting more democrats and independents by far than Cruz and Kasich, so I don't buy any of the arguments that defend the manipulation polls.
Ok, if Trump was running by himself then that would mean he'd get nearly 100% of the vote so everybody likes him then right? Since if he gets 40% that means 60% hate him and would never vote for him.
Similar to the thought policing manipulation polls that you have fallen for, like:
- 1 on 1 Trump beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Cruz beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Kasich beats Clinton by far, but the others lose.
Trump is currently getting more democrats and independents by far than Cruz and Kasich, so I don't buy any of the arguments that defend the manipulation polls.
You have to distinguish between the primary and the general election. Winning the primary is one thing and winning in the general election is something entirely different. There is a reason why candidates go to the right in republican primaries and the democrats go to the left and after the primaries they both run to the center because that is the bulk of the electorate in the general election. Right now those voters have decided Trump is too extreme and want somebody more moderate. They also have found Cruz too extreme but by a lesser extent. Both Cruz and Trump are losing to Clinton in the general with Trump losing by a lot more.
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Ok, if Trump was running by himself then that would mean he'd get nearly 100% of the vote so everybody likes him then right? Since if he gets 40% that means 60% hate him and would never vote for him.
Similar to the thought policing manipulation polls that you have fallen for, like:
- 1 on 1 Trump beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Cruz beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Kasich beats Clinton by far, but the others lose.
Trump is currently getting more democrats and independents by far than Cruz and Kasich, so I don't buy any of the arguments that defend the manipulation polls.
You have to distinguish between the primary and the general election. Winning the primary is one thing and winning in the general election is something entirely different. There is a reason why candidates go to the right in republican primaries and the democrats go to the left and after the primaries they both run to the center because that is the bulk of the electorate in the general election. Right now those voters have decided Trump is too extreme and want somebody more moderate. They also have found Cruz too extreme but by a lesser extent. Both Cruz and Trump are losing to Clinton in the general with Trump losing by a lot more.
You have to distinguish between the primary and the general election. Winning the primary is one thing and winning in the general election is something entirely different. There is a reason why candidates go to the right in republican primaries and the democrats go to the left and after the primaries they both run to the center because that is the bulk of the electorate in the general election. Right now those voters have decided Trump is too extreme and want somebody more moderate. They also have found Cruz too extreme but by a lesser extent. Both Cruz and Trump are losing to Clinton in the general with Trump losing by a lot more.
Reagan was getting blown out by Carter in general election polls at this point.
They are irrelevant.
Trump has the biggest support base of new voters, independents, and democrats. If Trump gets snubbed, they all stay home or vote for the other side.
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You have to distinguish between the primary and the general election. Winning the primary is one thing and winning in the general election is something entirely different. There is a reason why candidates go to the right in republican primaries and the democrats go to the left and after the primaries they both run to the center because that is the bulk of the electorate in the general election. Right now those voters have decided Trump is too extreme and want somebody more moderate. They also have found Cruz too extreme but by a lesser extent. Both Cruz and Trump are losing to Clinton in the general with Trump losing by a lot more.
Reagan was getting blown out by Carter in general election polls at this point.
They are irrelevant.
Trump has the biggest support base of new voters, independents, and democrats. If Trump gets snubbed, they all stay home or vote for the other side.
Reagan was getting blown out by Carter in general election polls at this point.
They are irrelevant.
Trump has the biggest support base of new voters, independents, and democrats. If Trump gets snubbed, they all stay home or vote for the other side.
When the polls show Trump losing badly to Clinton in November that is including all the new voters you are claiming. They obviously are not enough not to mention all the new voters on the democrat side who oppose Trump. I hear the whining all the time from the Trumpbots how it has to be Trump or nothing or they are going to stay home. Then stay home and give the election to Clinton. I will vote for Trump over Clinton but there are a whole lot more conservatives who will not vote for Trump and play the same game you are playing. I either get my way or I take my ball and bat and go home.
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Reagan was getting blown out by Carter in general election polls at this point.
They are irrelevant.
Trump has the biggest support base of new voters, independents, and democrats. If Trump gets snubbed, they all stay home or vote for the other side.
When the polls show Trump losing badly to Clinton in November that is including all the new voters you are claiming. They obviously are not enough not to mention all the new voters on the democrat side who oppose Trump. I hear the whining all the time from the Trumpbots how it has to be Trump or nothing or they are going to stay home. Then stay home and give the election to Clinton. I will vote for Trump over Clinton but there are a whole lot more conservatives who will not vote for Trump and play the same game you are playing. I either get my way or I take my ball and bat and go home.
When the polls show Trump losing badly to Clinton in November that is including all the new voters you are claiming. They obviously are not enough not to mention all the new voters on the democrat side who oppose Trump. I hear the whining all the time from the Trumpbots how it has to be Trump or nothing or they are going to stay home. Then stay home and give the election to Clinton. I will vote for Trump over Clinton but there are a whole lot more conservatives who will not vote for Trump and play the same game you are playing. I either get my way or I take my ball and bat and go home.
If you're trying to convince me than the MSM general elections polls from Jan/Feb/March/April show Cruz has a chance at winning the general election it's not going to work.
I'm actually politically informed and I have very good, solid reasons I'd vote for Clinton over Cruz. Despite his terrible policies, he's also just as dishonest as Clinton. Voting Clinton > Cruz is a no brainer for me.
FWIW If Trump gets 50% + 1 in NY then Cruz is mathematically eliminated from the race.
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Cruz in the White House scares the hell out of me.
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When the polls show Trump losing badly to Clinton in November that is including all the new voters you are claiming. They obviously are not enough not to mention all the new voters on the democrat side who oppose Trump. I hear the whining all the time from the Trumpbots how it has to be Trump or nothing or they are going to stay home. Then stay home and give the election to Clinton. I will vote for Trump over Clinton but there are a whole lot more conservatives who will not vote for Trump and play the same game you are playing. I either get my way or I take my ball and bat and go home.
If you're trying to convince me than the MSM general elections polls from Jan/Feb/March/April show Cruz has a chance at winning the general election it's not going to work.
I'm actually politically informed and I have very good, solid reasons I'd vote for Clinton over Cruz. Despite his terrible policies, he's also just as dishonest as Clinton. Voting Clinton > Cruz is a no brainer for me.
FWIW If Trump gets 50% + 1 in NY then Cruz is mathematically eliminated from the race.
If you're trying to convince me than the MSM general elections polls from Jan/Feb/March/April show Cruz has a chance at winning the general election it's not going to work.
I'm actually politically informed and I have very good, solid reasons I'd vote for Clinton over Cruz. Despite his terrible policies, he's also just as dishonest as Clinton. Voting Clinton > Cruz is a no brainer for me.
FWIW If Trump gets 50% + 1 in NY then Cruz is mathematically eliminated from the race.
Just telling you the polling facts. Up to now Cruz has polled much better against Clinton than Trump. The only thing that matters in the convention is a candidate having 1237 delegates period. Not 1235, not 1236. As long as Trump does not have 1237 nobody has been eliminated.
Polls: Cruz better against Hillary than Trump
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If you're trying to convince me than the MSM general elections polls from Jan/Feb/March/April show Cruz has a chance at winning the general election it's not going to work.
I'm actually politically informed and I have very good, solid reasons I'd vote for Clinton over Cruz. Despite his terrible policies, he's also just as dishonest as Clinton. Voting Clinton > Cruz is a no brainer for me.
FWIW If Trump gets 50% + 1 in NY then Cruz is mathematically eliminated from the race.
Just telling you the polling facts. Up to now Cruz has polled much better against Clinton than Trump. The only thing that matters in the convention is a candidate having 1237 delegates period. Not 1235, not 1236. As long as Trump does not have 1237 nobody has been eliminated.
Polls: Cruz better against Hillary than Trump
Just telling you the polling facts. Up to now Cruz has polled much better against Clinton than Trump. The only thing that matters in the convention is a candidate having 1237 delegate period. Not 1235, not 1236. As long as Trump does not have 1237 nobody has been eliminated.
If trump gets 1235 or 1236 he has the nomination.
He will get a good amount of unpledged first ballot delegates, especially if he's that close.
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Just telling you the polling facts. Up to now Cruz has polled much better against Clinton than Trump. The only thing that matters in the convention is a candidate having 1237 delegate period. Not 1235, not 1236. As long as Trump does not have 1237 nobody has been eliminated.
If trump gets 1235 or 1236 he has the nomination.
He will get a good amount of unpledged first ballot delegates, especially if he's that close.
If trump gets 1235 or 1236 he has the nomination.
He will get a good amount of unpledged first ballot delegates, especially if he's that close.
My guess is that if Trump gets close enough he probably would get it on the first ballot . If it goes to a second ballot all bets are off. There are hundreds of delegates also from other candidates like Rubio and Kasich and a lot depends on who they release those to.
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Cruz be crazy. Kasich is living a pipe dream. Trump 2016. If they go against who the people want (voted for in the majority) they will lose.
Except the people haven't voted for him in the majority. Normally it's in the 30-40% range, with cruz not very far behind. Meaning, the majority of people don't want Trump (also don't want Cruz). This is why an alternative vote system would work well in primaries - I'm guessing most people who voted Cruz were voting 'anyone but trump' while most people who voted trump were voting 'trump please'.
Except the people haven't voted for him in the majority. Normally it's in the 30-40% range, with cruz not very far behind. Meaning, the majority of people don't want Trump (also don't want Cruz). This is why an alternative vote system would work well in primaries - I'm guessing most people who voted Cruz were voting 'anyone but trump' while most people who voted trump were voting 'trump please'.
I'm talking republicans here brit. He has won more states, more votes then any other candidate, so the vast majority of people have voted for him.
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It troubles me that he is shooting himself in the foot a few times, and that
vote can change if a lot more folks are turned off by his mistakes and big,
childish statements.
There comes a point where someone who misled badly, is found out,
and the delegates are hearing a lot of legit reasons to change their
vote to someone who did not.
IF that is the case with Trump, so be it. The delegates need to find someone
real, that also has a ton of support.
I just don't know.
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