Three Years Hence draft grades.
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They say, and I personally believe, that a draft should not be graded for 3 years. So, lets go back and look at the draft 3 years hence. By this I mean lets grade the 2013 draft and see who did well and who did poorly.
This is my method of doing the grading: Seeing how productive the players taken by team in a draft have been over the last 3 years. Yes, I am using my old reliable PFR Career Production Average as my guide. The is the accumulated CA score of the players drafted in 2013 by each team. One caveat....it is possible that a player may have played and produced for a team that didn't draft him. I did NOT take that into account. So here they are, the draft, 3 years hence:
A Grades (over 75)
Green Bay Packers, highest score: 100 Eddy Lacy, David Bakhtari, Micah Hydy top producers
Detroit Lions, 86 grade: Ezekial Ansah, Larry Warford, top producers
A- Grades (70-74 Scores)
Dallas Cowboys 72
Jacksonville Jaguars 71
Pittsburgh Steelers 71 (Bell)
ARizona Cardinals 70
B+ grades (60-69 scores)
LA (StL) Rams 69
Oakland Raiders 66
Chicago Bears 64
San Diego Chargers 63
B+ Grades (55-59 scores)
Philadelphia Eagles 59
Minnesota Vikings 58
New Orleans Saints 57
NY Jets 56
B- Grades (50-54 scores)
Kansas City Chiefs 54
Houston Texans 52
Baltimore Ravens 52
Carolina Panthers 51
Tennessee Titans 51
New England Patriots 50
C+ Grades (45-49 scores)
Tampa Bay Bucs 49
Buffalo Bills 46
Cincinnati Bengals 46
C Grades (40-44 scores)
Miami Dolphins 44
Atlanta Falcons 42
C- Grades (35-39 scores)
NY Giants 37
Washingtion Redskins 36
D+ Grades (30- 34 scores)
Indianapolis Colts 34
Seattle Seahawks 31
San Francisco 49ers 31
D Grades (25-29 scores)
Denver Broncos 28
D- Grades (20-24 scores)
None
F Grades (below 20 scores)
Cleveland Browns 17 (Barkevious Mingo...11 pts, most productive.....Armonty Bryant round 7 next)
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Note:
67 players out of that draft had 17 CA pts. alone......more than the Browns entire draft.
Eddi Lacy
Kyle Long
Leveon Bell
Travis Frederick
Ezekial Ansah top producers.
Of course, the irony is that the team that just won the Super Bowl had a bad draft that year. Sylvester Williams and Montee Ball were the best players they took.
Think about the Broncos......they won their SB primarily I believe on free Agents: Peyton Manning, Demarcus Ware, TJ Ward. Vernon Davis, Aqib Talib etc.
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Here is also the breakdown for evaluating the draft from 4 years ago. the 2012 Draft. This time however took the scores based on the production that players had with the team that drafted them only....not on what they may have done league wide. It shows that some players didn't stay with their same team. No grades per se this time, just the raw scores. You can assess your own grade if you would like. Best to worst, again cumlative PFR career production scores for all players for the team that drafted them:
Seahawks 179
Colts 123
Vikings 113
Dolphins 110
Rams 106
Redskins 106
Panthers 105
Eagles 105
Bengals 99
Texans 88
Bucs 87
Broncos 86
Browns 78
Patriots 75
Bills 74
Ravens 69
Steelers 67
Chiefs 64
Jets 64
Chargers 61
Titans 58
Cardinals 57
Lions 54
Bears 47
Packers 43
Jags 38
Cowboys 38
Giants 36
Falcons 34
Saints 28
Raiders 20
49ers 5
Juxtaposition here....Seahawks with a remarkably good draft, 49ers with perhaps an historically bad draft.
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I mean to be fair the draft with Mingo in it was ultra weak
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Looking at that first round:
Eric Fisher - yikes
Luke Joeckel - yikes
Dion Jordan - suspended yikes
Lane Johnson - meh
Ziggy Ansah - a hit
Mingo - yikes
Jonathan Cooper - injred & traded yikes
Tavon Austin - not worth trading up 8 spots for
Dee Milliner - yikes
Chance Warmack - titans have not picked up the option
DJ Fluker - injured yikes
DJ Hayden - yikes
Sheldon Richardson - finally, an elite player, at pick 13.
Some other names in there - EJ Manuel, Jarvis Jones Bjorn Werner, Cordarelle Patterson, Matt Elam.
There were a few bright spots, outside of Richardson (who himself is suspended, right?) in DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Long, Tyler Eifert (finally had a good year), and Travis Frederick. But this has to go down as one of the worst first rounds ever, surely.
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Looking at that first round:
Eric Fisher - yikes
Luke Joeckel - yikes
Dion Jordan - suspended yikes
Lane Johnson - meh
Ziggy Ansah - a hit
Mingo - yikes
Jonathan Cooper - injred & traded yikes
Tavon Austin - not worth trading up 8 spots for
Dee Milliner - yikes
Chance Warmack - titans have not picked up the option
DJ Fluker - injured yikes
DJ Hayden - yikes
Sheldon Richardson - finally, an elite player, at pick 13.
Some other names in there - EJ Manuel, Jarvis Jones Bjorn Werner, Cordarelle Patterson, Matt Elam.
There were a few bright spots, outside of Richardson (who himself is suspended, right?) in DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Long, Tyler Eifert (finally had a good year), and Travis Frederick. But this has to go down as one of the worst first rounds ever, surely.
Look at the first two picks. OT's. This is why it's a bad thing to draft an OT or O-lineman #1 overall. Yes there are bust at all positions but what production are you going to get from someone who doesn't touch the ball?Looking at that first round:
Eric Fisher - yikes
Luke Joeckel - yikes
Dion Jordan - suspended yikes
Lane Johnson - meh
Ziggy Ansah - a hit
Mingo - yikes
Jonathan Cooper - injred & traded yikes
Tavon Austin - not worth trading up 8 spots for
Dee Milliner - yikes
Chance Warmack - titans have not picked up the option
DJ Fluker - injured yikes
DJ Hayden - yikes
Sheldon Richardson - finally, an elite player, at pick 13.
Some other names in there - EJ Manuel, Jarvis Jones Bjorn Werner, Cordarelle Patterson, Matt Elam.
There were a few bright spots, outside of Richardson (who himself is suspended, right?) in DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Long, Tyler Eifert (finally had a good year), and Travis Frederick. But this has to go down as one of the worst first rounds ever, surely.
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Look at the first two picks. OT's. This is why it's a bad thing to draft an OT or O-lineman #1 overall. Yes there are bust at all positions but what production are you going to get from someone who doesn't touch the ball?Looking at that first round:
Eric Fisher - yikes
Luke Joeckel - yikes
Dion Jordan - suspended yikes
Lane Johnson - meh
Ziggy Ansah - a hit
Mingo - yikes
Jonathan Cooper - injred & traded yikes
Tavon Austin - not worth trading up 8 spots for
Dee Milliner - yikes
Chance Warmack - titans have not picked up the option
DJ Fluker - injured yikes
DJ Hayden - yikes
Sheldon Richardson - finally, an elite player, at pick 13.
Some other names in there - EJ Manuel, Jarvis Jones Bjorn Werner, Cordarelle Patterson, Matt Elam.
There were a few bright spots, outside of Richardson (who himself is suspended, right?) in DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Long, Tyler Eifert (finally had a good year), and Travis Frederick. But this has to go down as one of the worst first rounds ever, surely.
One Post From the Truth said:
Look at the first two picks. OT's. This is why it's a bad thing to draft an OT or O-lineman #1 overall. Yes there are bust at all positions but what production are you going to get from someone who doesn't touch the ball?
Someone's been drinking the ghool-aid.
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Look at the first two picks. OT's. This is why it's a bad thing to draft an OT or O-lineman #1 overall. Yes there are bust at all positions but what production are you going to get from someone who doesn't touch the ball?Looking at that first round:
Eric Fisher - yikes
Luke Joeckel - yikes
Dion Jordan - suspended yikes
Lane Johnson - meh
Ziggy Ansah - a hit
Mingo - yikes
Jonathan Cooper - injred & traded yikes
Tavon Austin - not worth trading up 8 spots for
Dee Milliner - yikes
Chance Warmack - titans have not picked up the option
DJ Fluker - injured yikes
DJ Hayden - yikes
Sheldon Richardson - finally, an elite player, at pick 13.
Some other names in there - EJ Manuel, Jarvis Jones Bjorn Werner, Cordarelle Patterson, Matt Elam.
There were a few bright spots, outside of Richardson (who himself is suspended, right?) in DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Long, Tyler Eifert (finally had a good year), and Travis Frederick. But this has to go down as one of the worst first rounds ever, surely.
One Post From the Truth said:
Look at the first two picks. OT's. This is why it's a bad thing to draft an OT or O-lineman #1 overall. Yes there are bust at all positions but what production are you going to get from someone who doesn't touch the ball?
So start 11 QBs on offense?
Actually it's a lesson in reaching for an OT when it's a position of need. I have to see both athleticism and signs of technique to consider an OT in R1.
Can't speak to Fischer, but with Joeckel the former was in question when he came out.
More recently there was everyone's Combine dream-date, Greg Robinson. A whole lot of folks were all over this giant athlete whose technique would be coached up at the next level. Someone here (
) warned of that danger.Ditto the above for 2015 wundertackle, Brandon Scherff... who at least came on as an OG... a very pricey, 5th overall OG.
2016? Beware Stanley (technique) and Conklin (athleticism)... Book it!
Tunsil - Decker 2016! Plus a guy named Coleman...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
They say, and I personally believe, that a draft should not be graded for 3 years. So, lets go back and look at the draft 3 years hence. By this I mean lets grade the 2013 draft and see who did well and who did poorly.
This is my method of doing the grading: Seeing how productive the players taken by team in a draft have been over the last 3 years. Yes, I am using my old reliable PFR Career Production Average as my guide. The is the accumulated CA score of the players drafted in 2013 by each team. One caveat....it is possible that a player may have played and produced for a team that didn't draft him. I did NOT take that into account. So here they are, the draft, 3 years hence:
A Grades (over 75)
Green Bay Packers, highest score: 100 Eddy Lacy, David Bakhtari, Micah Hydy top producers
Detroit Lions, 86 grade: Ezekial Ansah, Larry Warford, top producers
A- Grades (70-74 Scores)
Dallas Cowboys 72
Jacksonville Jaguars 71
Pittsburgh Steelers 71 (Bell)
ARizona Cardinals 70
B+ grades (60-69 scores)
LA (StL) Rams 69
Oakland Raiders 66
Chicago Bears 64
San Diego Chargers 63
B+ Grades (55-59 scores)
Philadelphia Eagles 59
Minnesota Vikings 58
New Orleans Saints 57
NY Jets 56
B- Grades (50-54 scores)
Kansas City Chiefs 54
Houston Texans 52
Baltimore Ravens 52
Carolina Panthers 51
Tennessee Titans 51
New England Patriots 50
C+ Grades (45-49 scores)
Tampa Bay Bucs 49
Buffalo Bills 46
Cincinnati Bengals 46
C Grades (40-44 scores)
Miami Dolphins 44
Atlanta Falcons 42
C- Grades (35-39 scores)
NY Giants 37
Washingtion Redskins 36
D+ Grades (30- 34 scores)
Indianapolis Colts 34
Seattle Seahawks 31
San Francisco 49ers 31
D Grades (25-29 scores)
Denver Broncos 28
D- Grades (20-24 scores)
None
F Grades (below 20 scores)
Cleveland Browns 17 (Barkevious Mingo...11 pts, most productive.....Armonty Bryant round 7 next)
They say, and I personally believe, that a draft should not be graded for 3 years. So, lets go back and look at the draft 3 years hence. By this I mean lets grade the 2013 draft and see who did well and who did poorly.
This is my method of doing the grading: Seeing how productive the players taken by team in a draft have been over the last 3 years. Yes, I am using my old reliable PFR Career Production Average as my guide. The is the accumulated CA score of the players drafted in 2013 by each team. One caveat....it is possible that a player may have played and produced for a team that didn't draft him. I did NOT take that into account. So here they are, the draft, 3 years hence:
Here are the original grades that Mel Kiper gave to each teams 2013 draft just after the draft for comparison. (the fact is, he was not too harsh on anybody):
A Grades (over 75)
Green Bay Packers, highest score: 100 Eddy Lacy, David Bakhtari, Micah Hydy top producers Original Kiper grade: B-
Detroit Lions, 86 grade: Ezekial Ansah, Larry Warford, top producers Original Kiper grade: B
A- Grades (70-74 Scores)
Dallas Cowboys 72 O.K Grade: C+
Jacksonville Jaguars 71 O.K. Grade: B+
Pittsburgh Steelers 71 (Bell) O.K. Grade: B
ARizona Cardinals 70 O.K. Grade: B
B+ grades (60-69 scores)
LA (StL) Rams 69 O.K. Grade: A-
Oakland Raiders 66 O.K. Grade: B-
Chicago Bears 64 O.K.Grade: C+
San Diego Chargers 63 O.K. Grade: B
B+ Grades (55-59 scores)
Philadelphia Eagles 59 O.K Grade: B+
Minnesota Vikings 58 O.K. Grade: B
New Orleans Saints 57 O.K. Grade: B-
NY Jets 56 O.K. Grade: B
B- Grades (50-54 scores)
Kansas City Chiefs 54 O.K. Grade: B
Houston Texans 52 O.K. Grade: B
Baltimore Ravens 52 O.K. Grade: A (he always grades the rats asses with an A)
Carolina Panthers 51 O.K Grade: C+
Tennessee Titans 51 O.K. Grade A-
New England Patriots 50 O.K. Grade: C+
C+ Grades (45-49 scores)
Tampa Bay Bucs 49 O.K Grade: B
Buffalo Bills 46 O.K. Grade: C-
Cincinnati Bengals 46 O.K Grade: A
C Grades (40-44 scores)
Miami Dolphins 44 O.K. Grade: B-
Atlanta Falcons 42 O.K. Grade: B
C- Grades (35-39 scores)
NY Giants 37 O.K. Grade: C+
Washingtion Redskins 36 O.K Grade: C+
D+ Grades (30- 34 scores)
Indianapolis Colts 34 O.K. Grade C+
Seattle Seahawks 31 O.K. Grade: C-
San Francisco 49ers 31 O.K. Grade: B
D Grades (25-29 scores)
Denver Broncos 28 O.K. Grade: B-
D- Grades (20-24 scores)
None
F Grades (below 20 scores)
Cleveland Browns 17 (Barkevious Mingo...11 pts, most productive.....Armonty Bryant round 7 next) O.K. Grade: C+
Kiper's most underrated drafts of 2013: Packers, Cowboys, Raiders, Bears
Kiper's most overrated drafts of 2013: Ravens, Browns, Bengals, 49ers, Broncos, Titans.
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One Post From the Truth said:
Look at the first two picks. OT's. This is why it's a bad thing to draft an OT or O-lineman #1 overall. Yes there are bust at all positions but what production are you going to get from someone who doesn't touch the ball?
So start 11 QBs on offense?
Actually it's a lesson in reaching for an OT when it's a position of need. I have to see both athleticism and signs of technique to consider an OT in R1.
Can't speak to Fischer, but with Joeckel the former was in question when he came out.
More recently there was everyone's Combine dream-date, Greg Robinson. A whole lot of folks were all over this giant athlete whose technique would be coached up at the next level. Someone here (
) warned of that danger.Ditto the above for 2015 wundertackle, Brandon Scherff... who at least came on as an OG... a very pricey, 5th overall OG.
2016? Beware Stanley (technique) and Conklin (athleticism)... Book it!
Tunsil - Decker 2016! Plus a guy named Coleman...
So start 11 QBs on offense?
Actually it's a lesson in reaching for an OT when it's a position of need. I have to see both athleticism and signs of technique to consider an OT in R1.
Can't speak to Fischer, but with Joeckel the former was in question when he came out.
More recently there was everyone's Combine dream-date, Greg Robinson. A whole lot of folks were all over this giant athlete whose technique would be coached up at the next level. Someone here (
) warned of that danger.Ditto the above for 2015 wundertackle, Brandon Scherff... who at least came on as an OG... a very pricey, 5th overall OG.
2016? Beware Stanley (technique) and Conklin (athleticism)... Book it!
Tunsil - Decker 2016! Plus a guy named Coleman...
Sorry, are you saying that those last 3 will be worth it all....or will become bust outs?
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There is an obvious flaw with this. According to the Brownsboard there is no way an Alabama RB can be a good draft pick. We all know we will never even see Derrick Henry running through our defense this Oct. when he will be sitting on the bench.
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Here is the thread I referenced in my last post wherein some entity graded the Browns 2016 draft #1.
Kiper gave the Ravens and Bengals the top grades of an A that year. (He always gives the Ravens an A). In my regrading those teams got B- and C+ respectively.
The best actual drafts: Green Bay and Detroit, he only gave a B to.
I don't know what the analytical sites may have given in grades for 2013. I wonder if those sites even existed then.
Edit note: actually, I see where that site referenced in the other thread also gave Cinci a Top 5 grade in 2013....but that hasn't really panned out that well. Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard have had some decent production...but overall their draft didn't grade out all that well.
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Ansah at that time was absolutely not a surefire hit -- he was a project
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Ansah at that time was absolutely not a surefire hit -- he was a project
Ansah at that time was absolutely not a surefire hit -- he was a project
For Ravens Ricky Wagner, Brandon Williams, Matt Elam had some production.
And as noted, the Browns graded out an F.........no wonder, as this was the Mike Lombardi draft. He brought us Barkevious Mingo.
And his first stint here he brought us the stellar choices of Tommy Vardell, Antonio Langham and Craig Powell.
Whose fucking idea was it to bring him back? (I think actually the NFL foisted him upon the Browns and Jimmy Haslam)
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So start 11 QBs on offense?
Actually it's a lesson in reaching for an OT when it's a position of need. I have to see both athleticism and signs of technique to consider an OT in R1.
Can't speak to Fischer, but with Joeckel the former was in question when he came out.
More recently there was everyone's Combine dream-date, Greg Robinson. A whole lot of folks were all over this giant athlete whose technique would be coached up at the next level. Someone here (
) warned of that danger.Ditto the above for 2015 wundertackle, Brandon Scherff... who at least came on as an OG... a very pricey, 5th overall OG.
2016? Beware Stanley (technique) and Conklin (athleticism)... Book it!
Tunsil - Decker 2016! Plus a guy named Coleman...
Sorry, are you saying that those last 3 will be worth it all....or will become bust outs?
Sorry, are you saying that those last 3 will be worth it all....or will become bust outs?
Those three players will be worthy of the place they were drafted.
As for Kiper grades... in part he grades based upon his perception of how well the team filled its needs.
As for the Ravens' 2016 grade... considering the number of picks they started with and the quality of players they landed, especially on Day 2, there is no way I can see how a middling grade is justifiable.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Sorry, are you saying that those last 3 will be worth it all....or will become bust outs?
Those three players will be worthy of the place they were drafted.
As for Kiper grades... in part he grades based upon his perception of how well the team filled its needs.
As for the Ravens' 2016 grade... considering the number of picks they started with and the quality of players they landed, especially on Day 2, there is no way I can see how a middling grade is justifiable.
Those three players will be worthy of the place they were drafted.
As for Kiper grades... in part he grades based upon his perception of how well the team filled its needs.
As for the Ravens' 2016 grade... considering the number of picks they started with and the quality of players they landed, especially on Day 2, there is no way I can see how a middling grade is justifiable.
So, are you saying that the Ravens deserve their A grade because they filled their needs, but the Browns deserve a C grade because they didn't?
Except...of course, in theory the Browns filled their needs every bit as well or better than the Ravens did.
We needed Receivers....Check...got the Biletnikoff winner
We needed pass rushers....Check...got the best in football, plus another DE and OLB to fill that role
We needed a RT....Check...got Shon Coleman
We needed a safety....Check....got Caldwell, who may work out.
We needed an ILB....Check...Got a couple.
We needed a developmental QB.....Check....got Kessler.
Maybe Kiper thought that there was perhaps someone on his board that could have filled these positions better where they were drafted.....but that is all opinion.
And as the title of this thread says.....we have to wait 3 years hence before we can really tell.
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So you have 2 years and 1 months left to argue despite no possibility of resolution....
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
So you have 2 years and 1 months left to argue despite no possibility of resolution....
Three years and one month. My grade was after these players being in the league for 3 years.
For what its worth, there are actually an number of first rounders from that 2013 draft that have been bigger busts than Barkevious Mingo, including:
Dion Jordon DE Miami
Dee Milliner DB Jets
Jonathan Cooper OG Cards
Datone Jones DE Packers
EJ Manuel QB Bills
DJ Hayden DB Raiders
Tyler Eifert TE Bengals
Matt Elam DB Ravens
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Tyler Eifert has contributed a tremendous amount more to his team than Mingo
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Tyler Eifert has contributed a tremendous amount more to his team than Mingo
Well, the CA numbers say they have produce equally throughout the years. Perhaps because Eifert is a skill player and has a certain number of catches/yards/TDs that it seems that he has contributed more, but that one stat says that Mingos 7 sacks and 1 career Int. are the equivalent of what Eifert has done.
In three years he has averaged about 31 catches a year for about 340 yards. I am not defending Mingos contributions as being positive....but Eifert may not be all that and a bag of chips either, all things considered.
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