Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version)
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thats 45 years of numbers cal.....every decade....the same.....
AND it matches the NFL averages as a whole....which is my point.....every team.....the same....
But, hey....in the whole history of the NFL and the Browns franchise, maybe Shashi knows more than all of em....
My guess.......well draft another shit ton of middling players with these picks(like we just did).......and, hopefully a few good ones with the higher picks(like we just did)......
this year, I just wish we could exchange the shit ton of middling players for a couple extra good ones....ya know?
where in the world are gonna put another 14 draft picks?.....heck with Bryant, Orchard, Bitonio, Poyer & Griffin coming back, we will have to cut another 19 players to make room on the roster......who will they be?.....the rest of our vets?....or will they be the young guys and rookies who are playing now?....
My guess is that a number of the 4th and later picks so many were excited for this year, will suddenly be gone......only to be replaced by the next group.....
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Trouble is, that is pretty much across the NFL. How many players make it to the NFL from the seven/sixth rounds?
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Trouble is, that is pretty much across the NFL. How many players make it to the NFL from the seven/sixth rounds?
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Damn nice work Mr.Mud! I truly see the light! We do need some later rounders for cannon fodder. Trading up would seem to be the answer. Although rooting for a Scooby Wright kind of guy is fun! Thanks Mud, again! Great post!!!
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Damn nice work Mr.Mud! I truly see the light! We do need some later rounders for cannon fodder. Trading up would seem to be the answer. Although rooting for a Scooby Wright kind of guy is fun! Thanks Mud, again! Great post!!!
Damn nice work Mr.Mud! I truly see the light! We do need some later rounders for cannon fodder. Trading up would seem to be the answer. Although rooting for a Scooby Wright kind of guy is fun! Thanks Mud, again! Great post!!!
Thanks...not trying to beat up on the Browns....its all about that currency thing and how you spend it....
So....all im saying is that.....going forward.... lets consolidate the accumulation and buy some REALLY good stuff......
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Very nice work! (is it snowing where you're at too?)
And the key position for contenders QB, only Sipe on that list besides one of the best steals ever in the supplimental draft allegedly done by Darth Vader him self Art Modell....Bernie Kosar.
I also was wondering if there's any NFL database on this stuff?
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Damn nice work Mr.Mud! I truly see the light! We do need some later rounders for cannon fodder. Trading up would seem to be the answer. Although rooting for a Scooby Wright kind of guy is fun! Thanks Mud, again! Great post!!!
Thanks...not trying to beat up on the Browns....its all about that currency thing and how you spend it....
So....all im saying is that.....going forward.... lets consolidate the accumulation and buy some REALLY good stuff......
Thanks...not trying to beat up on the Browns....its all about that currency thing and how you spend it....
So....all im saying is that.....going forward.... lets consolidate the accumulation and buy some REALLY good stuff......
Agreed! With our (Browns)salary cap in a good stance we can sign our homemade talent. We can also add in some FAs preferably off rookie deals,and stay young! If the talent we have drafted that looks promising ( Ogbah,Nassib,Kessler,Coleman,Shelton.....etc.) continues to grow! We might have a REAL PLAN to be good for a long time! Now we need some blue chippers to add the second layer of the cake ! Then The ICING!!!
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This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....
Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....
Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....
Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...
Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.
So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....
Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....
And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....
So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts
My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)
1970-79 4th & later
141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......
Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)
Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate
1980-89 4th & later
97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......
Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)
Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....
1990-99 4th & later
58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...
Starter: Burnett(5)
Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....
2000-10 4th & later
54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...
Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)
Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....
2011-15 4th & later
24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...
Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...
Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....
summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks
374 drafts picks made........
16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....
........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...
358 players were not successful.....
So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)
and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....
So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......
Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?
do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?
I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......
All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....
This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....
Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....
Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....
Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...
Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.
So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....
Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....
And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....
So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts
My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)
1970-79 4th & later
141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......
Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)
Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate
1980-89 4th & later
97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......
Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)
Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....
1990-99 4th & later
58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...
Starter: Burnett(5)
Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....
2000-10 4th & later
54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...
Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)
Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....
2011-15 4th & later
24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...
Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...
Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....
summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks
374 drafts picks made........
16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....
........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...
358 players were not successful.....
So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)
and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....
So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......
Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?
do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?
I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......
All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....
My only complaint is it wasn't long enough. The trade up idea is growing on me. Great stuff Mud!
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Questions... only in the interest of clarifying and/or refining a fine effort... or something...
- What, if any, consideration is there for Special Teamers? Not just Ks, Ps and LSs, but returners and coverage guys?
- Are the odds of hitting on a 4th and a 6th the same? What are the individual rates for the league for the Day 3 rounds?
- How dramatically do the success rates improve (league average is fine for the 2000's and 2010's subsets) in rounds 3, 2, and 1 individually?
- Who trades a 4 for two 7's?
OK... the last one was facetious, but you get my point. Any 2 for 1 pick trade has to increase the odds of success of the higher pick traded away alone in order to have a shot at statistically break even on the odds. And so many Day one and Two trades involve moving up within a Round plus later picks, either in the same or future drafts. So even more of a breakdown, quartiles at minimum, have to be made to evaluate a trade.
By the Harvard chart two 6th round compensatories might get you a pick around the mid-point of the 4th. Two mid-7ths might get you a 4th compensatory.
Then there's the matter of landing a few blue chips in a given draft. Two? Expected. Three? Eminently doable. Four? Ehhh... stretching it. A few? Damn hard.
I know "have time" does not mean unlimited. I'm happy to help with the trade chart evaluations, but let's go deeper...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Excellent write-up....
we might hit a few diamonds in the rough but it would be absolutely ridiculous for us to bank on it.
We need blue chip players, to trade-up, or select the best player available.
If we have a first next year and trade down again i'll be livid.
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That's been my bitch with this FO, they seem to value quantity over quality.
When your team is filled with a bunch of 4th & 5th round talent, there's no surprise this team is winless.
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That's been my bitch with this FO, they seem to value quantity over quality.
When your team is filled with a bunch of 4th & 5th round talent, there's no surprise this team is winless.
You are correct.That's been my bitch with this FO, they seem to value quantity over quality.
When your team is filled with a bunch of 4th & 5th round talent, there's no surprise this team is winless.
You either pick high picks or play against them
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I don't need analytics! I wanted Khalil Mack and Carr in 2014 and thought they would at least draft Garapolo! Same goes with every draft before and since! They trade down for third string scrubs and think they will coach them up! How do you end up with Gilbert, Manziel, Erving, Coleman while Passing on premier players every year.
You didn't need a crystal ball to know how good Mack, Elliot, Carr, Beckham were going to be! Why did Hue pick so many wide receivers when the offensive line sucks! And then there's the matter of letting good players walk!
Hopeless
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Another way to look at it is this....
Would you rather have a guy picked in the first round play like a first round pick?
Or 2 3rd round picks play like 3rd round picks?
Give me the 1st round talent ALL DAY
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Questions... only in the interest of clarifying and/or refining a fine effort... or something...
- What, if any, consideration is there for Special Teamers? Not just Ks, Ps and LSs, but returners and coverage guys?
- Are the odds of hitting on a 4th and a 6th the same? What are the individual rates for the league for the Day 3 rounds?
- How dramatically do the success rates improve (league average is fine for the 2000's and 2010's subsets) in rounds 3, 2, and 1 individually?
- Who trades a 4 for two 7's?
OK... the last one was facetious, but you get my point. Any 2 for 1 pick trade has to increase the odds of success of the higher pick traded away alone in order to have a shot at statistically break even on the odds. And so many Day one and Two trades involve moving up within a Round plus later picks, either in the same or future drafts. So even more of a breakdown, quartiles at minimum, have to be made to evaluate a trade.
By the Harvard chart two 6th round compensatories might get you a pick around the mid-point of the 4th. Two mid-7ths might get you a 4th compensatory.
Then there's the matter of landing a few blue chips in a given draft. Two? Expected. Three? Eminently doable. Four? Ehhh... stretching it. A few? Damn hard.
I know "have time" does not mean unlimited. I'm happy to help with the trade chart evaluations, but let's go deeper...
Questions... only in the interest of clarifying and/or refining a fine effort... or something...
- What, if any, consideration is there for Special Teamers? Not just Ks, Ps and LSs, but returners and coverage guys?
- Are the odds of hitting on a 4th and a 6th the same? What are the individual rates for the league for the Day 3 rounds?
- How dramatically do the success rates improve (league average is fine for the 2000's and 2010's subsets) in rounds 3, 2, and 1 individually?
- Who trades a 4 for two 7's?
OK... the last one was facetious, but you get my point. Any 2 for 1 pick trade has to increase the odds of success of the higher pick traded away alone in order to have a shot at statistically break even on the odds. And so many Day one and Two trades involve moving up within a Round plus later picks, either in the same or future drafts. So even more of a breakdown, quartiles at minimum, have to be made to evaluate a trade.
By the Harvard chart two 6th round compensatories might get you a pick around the mid-point of the 4th. Two mid-7ths might get you a 4th compensatory.
Then there's the matter of landing a few blue chips in a given draft. Two? Expected. Three? Eminently doable. Four? Ehhh... stretching it. A few? Damn hard.
I know "have time" does not mean unlimited. I'm happy to help with the trade chart evaluations, but let's go deeper...
1) very little consideration was given to ST type players. Just basing my standard on the type of players that create a buildable core and offer a significant contribution for a reasonable period of time. Hence the reason I labeled em backups and busts.....the one thing they all have in common is that they are below average NFL starters...
I also excluded one year wonders, etc that some might consider "good" picks, ala the Cameron or Benji types....
2) Yes,,,,there is nominal, if any, difference between 4-5 +6 rounds....though teams do tend to keep the lower(4) picks longer, not surprisingly confirming their earlier faith that that player was the better one....league averages are similar to the Browns....a smidge higher(8% ish)...
3) significantly...jump to the 3rd doubles your chances at 14-15%.....second triples them at 25%.....and 1st quadruples them at almost 35%(even higher if were just talking average starters....which to many, would be considered below average for 1st round).....so, I did assign a higher value AND expectation to first round picks....
The most significant thing that struck me, is you cannot build a team with massive middle and lates....it wont work....
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trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like
fifth round picks, or worse.
It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.
dammit.
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trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like
fifth round picks, or worse.
It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.
dammit.
You're just NOW thinking of it?trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like
fifth round picks, or worse.
It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.
dammit.
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You're just NOW thinking of it?
LOL! The 25 page thread "Draft Talk" was started way back on Sept 4. But we welcome any Johnny-come-latelys (Oh no, that word again).
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Don't we have 7 1st and 2nd round picks the next 2 years? 9 in the first 3 rounds. A few of our extra late picks were throw-ins on bigger deals. Might as well take it if it's offered to you. (Btw, do we expect any 3rd round compensatories?)
Also, the higher the pick, the higher the investment from the team. If we drafted Willie Snead and Dion Lewis in the first round, they'd still be on the team. Where guys were drafted indicates to you their potential. So even though you might see suckage at practice, you're a little more willing to wait and see if things will click for them. See: Erving, Cam.
Lastly, I think Sashi (who still has yet to add a second H to his name) and the analytics boys are aware of all this analysis (which is useful) and are going to implement it into their strategy however they see fit.
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