Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version)

BrownsnMopar

@mudfly said:

Thanks...not trying to beat up on the Browns....its all about that currency thing and how you spend it....

So....all im saying is that.....going forward.... lets consolidate the accumulation and buy some REALLY good stuff......

Agreed! With our (Browns)salary cap in a good stance we can sign our homemade talent. We can also add in some FAs preferably off rookie deals,and stay young! If the talent we have drafted that looks promising ( Ogbah,Nassib,Kessler,Coleman,Shelton.....etc.) continues to grow! We might have a REAL PLAN to be good for a long time! Now we need some blue chippers to add the second layer of the cake ! Then The ICING!!!

Flugel

@mudfly said:

This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....

Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....

Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....

Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...

Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.

So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....

Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....

And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....

So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts

My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)

1970-79 4th & later

141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......

Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)

Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate

1980-89 4th & later

97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......

Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)

Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....

1990-99 4th & later

58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...

Starter: Burnett(5)

Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....

2000-10 4th & later

54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...

Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)

Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....

2011-15 4th & later

24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...

Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...

Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....

summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks

374 drafts picks made........

16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....

........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...

358 players were not successful.....

So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)

and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....

So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......

Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?

do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?

I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......

All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....

My only complaint is it wasn't long enough. The trade up idea is growing on me. Great stuff Mud!

Tour2ma

Questions... only in the interest of clarifying and/or refining a fine effort... or something...

What, if any, consideration is there for Special Teamers? Not just Ks, Ps and LSs, but returners and coverage guys?
Are the odds of hitting on a 4th and a 6th the same? What are the individual rates for the league for the Day 3 rounds?
How dramatically do the success rates improve (league average is fine for the 2000's and 2010's subsets) in rounds 3, 2, and 1 individually?
Who trades a 4 for two 7's?

OK... the last one was facetious, but you get my point. Any 2 for 1 pick trade has to increase the odds of success of the higher pick traded away alone in order to have a shot at statistically break even on the odds. And so many Day one and Two trades involve moving up within a Round plus later picks, either in the same or future drafts. So even more of a breakdown, quartiles at minimum, have to be made to evaluate a trade.

By the Harvard chart two 6th round compensatories might get you a pick around the mid-point of the 4th. Two mid-7ths might get you a 4th compensatory.

Then there's the matter of landing a few blue chips in a given draft. Two? Expected. Three? Eminently doable. Four? Ehhh... stretching it. A few? Damn hard.

I know "have time" does not mean unlimited. I'm happy to help with the trade chart evaluations, but let's go deeper...

stillmotion

Excellent write-up....

we might hit a few diamonds in the rough but it would be absolutely ridiculous for us to bank on it.

We need blue chip players, to trade-up, or select the best player available.

If we have a first next year and trade down again i'll be livid.

Canton Dawg

That's been my bitch with this FO, they seem to value quantity over quality.

When your team is filled with a bunch of 4th & 5th round talent, there's no surprise this team is winless.

Browns149

@canton-dawg said:

That's been my bitch with this FO, they seem to value quantity over quality.

When your team is filled with a bunch of 4th & 5th round talent, there's no surprise this team is winless.

You are correct.

You either pick high picks or play against them

Opal312

I don't need analytics! I wanted Khalil Mack and Carr in 2014 and thought they would at least draft Garapolo! Same goes with every draft before and since! They trade down for third string scrubs and think they will coach them up! How do you end up with Gilbert, Manziel, Erving, Coleman while Passing on premier players every year.

You didn't need a crystal ball to know how good Mack, Elliot, Carr, Beckham were going to be! Why did Hue pick so many wide receivers when the offensive line sucks! And then there's the matter of letting good players walk!

Hopeless

Browns149

Another way to look at it is this....

Would you rather have a guy picked in the first round play like a first round pick?

Or 2 3rd round picks play like 3rd round picks?

Give me the 1st round talent ALL DAY

Mudfly

@tour2ma said:

Questions... only in the interest of clarifying and/or refining a fine effort... or something...

What, if any, consideration is there for Special Teamers? Not just Ks, Ps and LSs, but returners and coverage guys?

Are the odds of hitting on a 4th and a 6th the same? What are the individual rates for the league for the Day 3 rounds?

How dramatically do the success rates improve (league average is fine for the 2000's and 2010's subsets) in rounds 3, 2, and 1 individually?

Who trades a 4 for two 7's?

OK... the last one was facetious, but you get my point. Any 2 for 1 pick trade has to increase the odds of success of the higher pick traded away alone in order to have a shot at statistically break even on the odds. And so many Day one and Two trades involve moving up within a Round plus later picks, either in the same or future drafts. So even more of a breakdown, quartiles at minimum, have to be made to evaluate a trade.

By the Harvard chart two 6th round compensatories might get you a pick around the mid-point of the 4th. Two mid-7ths might get you a 4th compensatory.

Then there's the matter of landing a few blue chips in a given draft. Two? Expected. Three? Eminently doable. Four? Ehhh... stretching it. A few? Damn hard.

I know "have time" does not mean unlimited. I'm happy to help with the trade chart evaluations, but let's go deeper...

1) very little consideration was given to ST type players. Just basing my standard on the type of players that create a buildable core and offer a significant contribution for a reasonable period of time. Hence the reason I labeled em backups and busts.....the one thing they all have in common is that they are below average NFL starters...

I also excluded one year wonders, etc that some might consider "good" picks, ala the Cameron or Benji types....

2) Yes,,,,there is nominal, if any, difference between 4-5 +6 rounds....though teams do tend to keep the lower(4) picks longer, not surprisingly confirming their earlier faith that that player was the better one....league averages are similar to the Browns....a smidge higher(8% ish)...

3) significantly...jump to the 3rd doubles your chances at 14-15%.....second triples them at 25%.....and 1st quadruples them at almost 35%(even higher if were just talking average starters....which to many, would be considered below average for 1st round).....so, I did assign a higher value AND expectation to first round picks....

The most significant thing that struck me, is you cannot build a team with massive middle and lates....it wont work....

calfoxwc

trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like

fifth round picks, or worse.

It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.

dammit.

Browns149

@calfoxwc said:

trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like

fifth round picks, or worse.

It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.

dammit.

You're just NOW thinking of it?

TexasAg1969

@browns149 said:
You're just NOW thinking of it?

LOL! The 25 page thread "Draft Talk" was started way back on Sept 4. But we welcome any Johnny-come-latelys (Oh no, that word again).

wargograw

Don't we have 7 1st and 2nd round picks the next 2 years? 9 in the first 3 rounds. A few of our extra late picks were throw-ins on bigger deals. Might as well take it if it's offered to you. (Btw, do we expect any 3rd round compensatories?)

Also, the higher the pick, the higher the investment from the team. If we drafted Willie Snead and Dion Lewis in the first round, they'd still be on the team. Where guys were drafted indicates to you their potential. So even though you might see suckage at practice, you're a little more willing to wait and see if things will click for them. See: Erving, Cam.

Lastly, I think Sashi (who still has yet to add a second H to his name) and the analytics boys are aware of all this analysis (which is useful) and are going to implement it into their strategy however they see fit.

Flugel

@mudfly said:

My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)

1970-79 4th & later

141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......

Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)

Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate

1980-89 4th & later

97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......

Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)

Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....

1990-99 4th & later

58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...

Starter: Burnett(5)

Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....

2000-10 4th & later

54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...

Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)

Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....

2011-15 4th & later

24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...

Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...

Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....

summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks

374 drafts picks made........

16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....

........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...

358 players were not successful.....

So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)

and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....

All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....

Great job with that research!

When we used to be good at drafting mid to late as well as finding undrafted guys - we made the playoffs. I know you specified starters over several years but free agency kind of altered that to an extent. Therefore I just want to piggyback in some names of other important help we found from round 4 through undrafted FAs:

ILB Eddie Johnson was drafted in round 7 out of Louisville in 1981 and stayed here until 1990

LT Rickey Bolden was drafted in round 4 out of SMU in 1984 and played here until 1990

Safety Felix Wright undrafted and we snagged him from the CFL in 1985 and played 6 years for us

RB Herman Fontenot undrafted in 1985 contributed 47 receptions on 3rd downs in our 12 win season in 1986 (only stayed 3 years)

LT Tony (T-Bone) Jones was undrafted out of W. Carolina in 1988 stayed til the move. Started at LT for Denver's SB Champions.

Safety Thane Gash was drafted in round 7 out of East TN State in 1988 started 4 years here

RT Orlando Brown was undrafted out of South Carolina State in 1993 - stayed til the move and rejoined us in 99.

Our Free Agents from the USFL were:

ILB Mike Johnson

FB Kevin Mack

OG Dan Fike

CB Frank Minnifield

PR/KR - Gerald Ice Cube McNeil

These are some guys we drafted after trading up:

Mike Phipps #3 overall in 1970.

Kellen Winslow Jr #6 overall in 2004. Pittsburgh drafted Ben Roethlisberger at #11 overall

Brady Quinn #22 overall in 2007

Trent Richardson #3 overall in 2012

Brandon Weeden #22 overall in 2012. Russell Wilson was drafted at #75 overall

Johnny Manziel #22 overall in 2014. Derek Carr was drafted at #36 overall

I've been trained to not trust our choices when we traded up over the years. Meanwhile I've seen us succeed when our front office did well late in the draft as well as finding/signing UFAs. However, most of that was in the 80s and early 90s so I've also been trained that things can change. This is the worst 2 year span of football I can remember. We're 3 and 29 in our last 32 games looking like we'll be 3 and 34 when the season ends. We have enough draft picks to where we should be able to trade up to land some additional early impact. We should also have enough $ to compete for any free agents that can help us. Giddy up and get after it!

BrownPile

Excellent post.

Maybe these numbers can help illustrate something to all concerned parties...

Since the owner wants to build through the draft (and NOT sign high cost FA):

a. Can you actually do that? (given the facts you presented) and how many years would that take?;

b. It CAN'T be done in 1 year (as many fans seem to want)

I'm not willing to pass judgement on this FO or coaching staff after the first year of a complete gut-and-start-over rebuild.

I expected a losing team this year - just maybe not a winless one.

I'm even willing to give the FO the benefit of the doubt - at this point - and say they were looking 2-3 drafts ahead.

I was surprised early in the year that they weren't more disorganized and actually competed in most games. They even had late 4th quarter leads in some of those, but didn't close it out.

I agree that a BIG concern is that they haven't improved.

Any complete rebuild should be totally disorganized and ineffectual in the first half of the season. The second half is where you look to see if they've started coming together and are improving - even if they aren't winning.

Not seeing that here so far.

I suppose the real test of the coaching staff now will be if they can continue to compete in the last 5 games, or do they start quitting and mailing it in?

flyingfooldoug

On the pregame radio show, ex players described our owner as "a Dollar General store version of Jerry Jones", and that we as fans would be better off if jimminy ends up in jail.

Thanks for nothing Hasslam!

Mudfly

@flugel said:

Great job with that research!

When we used to be good at drafting mid to late as well as finding undrafted guys - we made the playoffs. I know you specified starters over several years but free agency kind of altered that to an extent. Therefore I just want to piggyback in some names of other important help we found from round 4 through undrafted FAs:

ILB Eddie Johnson was drafted in round 7 out of Louisville in 1981 and stayed here until 1990

LT Rickey Bolden was drafted in round 4 out of SMU in 1984 and played here until 1990

Safety Felix Wright undrafted and we snagged him from the CFL in 1985 and played 6 years for us

RB Herman Fontenot undrafted in 1985 contributed 47 receptions on 3rd downs in our 12 win season in 1986 (only stayed 3 years)

LT Tony (T-Bone) Jones was undrafted out of W. Carolina in 1988 stayed til the move. Started at LT for Denver's SB Champions.

Safety Thane Gash was drafted in round 7 out of East TN State in 1988 started 4 years here

RT Orlando Brown was undrafted out of South Carolina State in 1993 - stayed til the move and rejoined us in 99.

I did include Eddie Johnson as one of our successful late picks......the rest of these guys are not draft choices, so it's a mute point. Im not saying you cant find a late pick gem or a UDFA contributor here and there,,,,Im saying you cant build a team with them....

Plus....many above were just PT helpers and not even starters.....let alone solid players.....Fontenot? 300 yards in 6 years.....Bolden?....6 year back up....Thane Gash?.....out of the league after 3 yrs.....etc.........Im talking about obtaining long term quality.....

Our Free Agents from the USFL were:

ILB Mike Johnson

FB Kevin Mack

OG Dan Fike

CB Frank Minnifield

PR/KR - Gerald Ice Cube McNeil

Well.....Johnson & Mack were both first round picks and the Cube was a 2nd......(not FA's).....these 5 players were all good contributors and none were acquired with middle to late picks......part of my beef has been we didnt go after any FA's and we are relying on a lot of middle/late picks.....and these 5 players show what you can get with high picks and FA signings.......

Id also point out that we traded like 6 middle/late picks for the rights to draft Kevin Mack and The Cube.....which is exactly what Im advocating we do here....

These are some guys we drafted after trading up:

Mike Phipps #3 overall in 1970.

Kellen Winslow Jr #6 overall in 2004. Pittsburgh drafted Ben Roethlisberger at #11 overall

Brady Quinn #22 overall in 2007

Trent Richardson #3 overall in 2012

Brandon Weeden #22 overall in 2012. Russell Wilson was drafted at #75 overall

Johnny Manziel #22 overall in 2014. Derek Carr was drafted at #36 overall

First...These were all trade ups within the first round...every one of em....my OP clearly states that I want to move up from the middle and late picks....not necessarily within the first round.....

Second....the #'s I presented show that there is still a slim margin of success...even in the higher rounds. So it is easy to find failed picks in any round....we all can do it....point is that those "trade ups" were not fails due to trading up....they were fails due to making a bad pick.....that coulda/woulda happened with a trade or no trade......but the higher you go, the better the odds are of success...

We have enough draft picks to where we should be able to trade up to land some additional early impact.

Which is my whole point.......IF they do it.....(last draft,m they didnt)

We should also have enough $ to compete for any free agents that can help us.

We had those $$$ last season too.....didnt sign shit......not even one OL or C ......pathetic....

Giddy up and get after it!

We shall see if the strategy changes......

flyingfooldoug

We will most likely have the 1st pick. I've said before that we should trade up and go after 2 of the top 3 guys in the draft.

The Gipper

Without mewling over this whole thread, what I gather is that your bottom line is this: use all those late round picks we keep acquiring to trade up into the third round or higher?

I would be fine if the Browns would have 6 picks in the first three rounds and none beyond that. (the problem of course is that we cannot keep making such awful high picks as we have the last 5-8 years....you need value with those picks....not the JMZ, Erving, Mingo, Gilberts, TRs, Quinns, Weedens, Leon McFaddens etc etc. You need them to be Joe Haden, Joe Thomas, maybe Danny Shelton, maybe Joel Bitonio, maybe Mich Schwartz.

OldBrownsFan

Excellent read Mudfly. This team has so many holes to fill I was always looking at quantity versus quality (wouldn't it be great if you could get both?) but the stats don't lie. If you want quality talent it is going to come in the first few rounds. To try and build a team on later round drafts is chasing fools gold. Get the quality talent. Trade up.