Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version)
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That's been my bitch with this FO, they seem to value quantity over quality.
When your team is filled with a bunch of 4th & 5th round talent, there's no surprise this team is winless.
You are correct.That's been my bitch with this FO, they seem to value quantity over quality.
When your team is filled with a bunch of 4th & 5th round talent, there's no surprise this team is winless.
You either pick high picks or play against them
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I don't need analytics! I wanted Khalil Mack and Carr in 2014 and thought they would at least draft Garapolo! Same goes with every draft before and since! They trade down for third string scrubs and think they will coach them up! How do you end up with Gilbert, Manziel, Erving, Coleman while Passing on premier players every year.
You didn't need a crystal ball to know how good Mack, Elliot, Carr, Beckham were going to be! Why did Hue pick so many wide receivers when the offensive line sucks! And then there's the matter of letting good players walk!
Hopeless
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Another way to look at it is this....
Would you rather have a guy picked in the first round play like a first round pick?
Or 2 3rd round picks play like 3rd round picks?
Give me the 1st round talent ALL DAY
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Questions... only in the interest of clarifying and/or refining a fine effort... or something...
- What, if any, consideration is there for Special Teamers? Not just Ks, Ps and LSs, but returners and coverage guys?
- Are the odds of hitting on a 4th and a 6th the same? What are the individual rates for the league for the Day 3 rounds?
- How dramatically do the success rates improve (league average is fine for the 2000's and 2010's subsets) in rounds 3, 2, and 1 individually?
- Who trades a 4 for two 7's?
OK... the last one was facetious, but you get my point. Any 2 for 1 pick trade has to increase the odds of success of the higher pick traded away alone in order to have a shot at statistically break even on the odds. And so many Day one and Two trades involve moving up within a Round plus later picks, either in the same or future drafts. So even more of a breakdown, quartiles at minimum, have to be made to evaluate a trade.
By the Harvard chart two 6th round compensatories might get you a pick around the mid-point of the 4th. Two mid-7ths might get you a 4th compensatory.
Then there's the matter of landing a few blue chips in a given draft. Two? Expected. Three? Eminently doable. Four? Ehhh... stretching it. A few? Damn hard.
I know "have time" does not mean unlimited. I'm happy to help with the trade chart evaluations, but let's go deeper...
Questions... only in the interest of clarifying and/or refining a fine effort... or something...
- What, if any, consideration is there for Special Teamers? Not just Ks, Ps and LSs, but returners and coverage guys?
- Are the odds of hitting on a 4th and a 6th the same? What are the individual rates for the league for the Day 3 rounds?
- How dramatically do the success rates improve (league average is fine for the 2000's and 2010's subsets) in rounds 3, 2, and 1 individually?
- Who trades a 4 for two 7's?
OK... the last one was facetious, but you get my point. Any 2 for 1 pick trade has to increase the odds of success of the higher pick traded away alone in order to have a shot at statistically break even on the odds. And so many Day one and Two trades involve moving up within a Round plus later picks, either in the same or future drafts. So even more of a breakdown, quartiles at minimum, have to be made to evaluate a trade.
By the Harvard chart two 6th round compensatories might get you a pick around the mid-point of the 4th. Two mid-7ths might get you a 4th compensatory.
Then there's the matter of landing a few blue chips in a given draft. Two? Expected. Three? Eminently doable. Four? Ehhh... stretching it. A few? Damn hard.
I know "have time" does not mean unlimited. I'm happy to help with the trade chart evaluations, but let's go deeper...
1) very little consideration was given to ST type players. Just basing my standard on the type of players that create a buildable core and offer a significant contribution for a reasonable period of time. Hence the reason I labeled em backups and busts.....the one thing they all have in common is that they are below average NFL starters...
I also excluded one year wonders, etc that some might consider "good" picks, ala the Cameron or Benji types....
2) Yes,,,,there is nominal, if any, difference between 4-5 +6 rounds....though teams do tend to keep the lower(4) picks longer, not surprisingly confirming their earlier faith that that player was the better one....league averages are similar to the Browns....a smidge higher(8% ish)...
3) significantly...jump to the 3rd doubles your chances at 14-15%.....second triples them at 25%.....and 1st quadruples them at almost 35%(even higher if were just talking average starters....which to many, would be considered below average for 1st round).....so, I did assign a higher value AND expectation to first round picks....
The most significant thing that struck me, is you cannot build a team with massive middle and lates....it wont work....
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trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like
fifth round picks, or worse.
It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.
dammit.
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trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like
fifth round picks, or worse.
It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.
dammit.
You're just NOW thinking of it?trouble is, the Browns have often drafted players in the first round who played like
fifth round picks, or worse.
It's only nov, and I'm thinking to start working on a mock draft.
dammit.
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You're just NOW thinking of it?
LOL! The 25 page thread "Draft Talk" was started way back on Sept 4. But we welcome any Johnny-come-latelys (Oh no, that word again).
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Don't we have 7 1st and 2nd round picks the next 2 years? 9 in the first 3 rounds. A few of our extra late picks were throw-ins on bigger deals. Might as well take it if it's offered to you. (Btw, do we expect any 3rd round compensatories?)
Also, the higher the pick, the higher the investment from the team. If we drafted Willie Snead and Dion Lewis in the first round, they'd still be on the team. Where guys were drafted indicates to you their potential. So even though you might see suckage at practice, you're a little more willing to wait and see if things will click for them. See: Erving, Cam.
Lastly, I think Sashi (who still has yet to add a second H to his name) and the analytics boys are aware of all this analysis (which is useful) and are going to implement it into their strategy however they see fit.
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This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....
Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....
Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....
Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...
Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.
So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....
Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....
And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....
So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts
My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)
1970-79 4th & later
141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......
Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)
Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate
1980-89 4th & later
97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......
Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)
Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....
1990-99 4th & later
58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...
Starter: Burnett(5)
Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....
2000-10 4th & later
54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...
Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)
Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....
2011-15 4th & later
24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...
Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...
Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....
summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks
374 drafts picks made........
16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....
........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...
358 players were not successful.....
So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)
and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....
So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......
Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?
do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?
I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......
All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....
My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)
1970-79 4th & later
141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......
Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)
Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate
1980-89 4th & later
97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......
Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)
Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....
1990-99 4th & later
58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...
Starter: Burnett(5)
Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....
2000-10 4th & later
54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...
Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)
Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....
2011-15 4th & later
24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...
Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...
Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....
summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks
374 drafts picks made........
16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....
........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...
358 players were not successful.....
So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)
and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....
All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....
Great job with that research!
When we used to be good at drafting mid to late as well as finding undrafted guys - we made the playoffs. I know you specified starters over several years but free agency kind of altered that to an extent. Therefore I just want to piggyback in some names of other important help we found from round 4 through undrafted FAs:
ILB Eddie Johnson was drafted in round 7 out of Louisville in 1981 and stayed here until 1990
LT Rickey Bolden was drafted in round 4 out of SMU in 1984 and played here until 1990
Safety Felix Wright undrafted and we snagged him from the CFL in 1985 and played 6 years for us
RB Herman Fontenot undrafted in 1985 contributed 47 receptions on 3rd downs in our 12 win season in 1986 (only stayed 3 years)
LT Tony (T-Bone) Jones was undrafted out of W. Carolina in 1988 stayed til the move. Started at LT for Denver's SB Champions.
Safety Thane Gash was drafted in round 7 out of East TN State in 1988 started 4 years here
RT Orlando Brown was undrafted out of South Carolina State in 1993 - stayed til the move and rejoined us in 99.
Our Free Agents from the USFL were:
ILB Mike Johnson
FB Kevin Mack
OG Dan Fike
CB Frank Minnifield
PR/KR - Gerald Ice Cube McNeil
These are some guys we drafted after trading up:
Mike Phipps #3 overall in 1970.
Kellen Winslow Jr #6 overall in 2004. Pittsburgh drafted Ben Roethlisberger at #11 overall
Brady Quinn #22 overall in 2007
Trent Richardson #3 overall in 2012
Brandon Weeden #22 overall in 2012. Russell Wilson was drafted at #75 overall
Johnny Manziel #22 overall in 2014. Derek Carr was drafted at #36 overall
I've been trained to not trust our choices when we traded up over the years. Meanwhile I've seen us succeed when our front office did well late in the draft as well as finding/signing UFAs. However, most of that was in the 80s and early 90s so I've also been trained that things can change. This is the worst 2 year span of football I can remember. We're 3 and 29 in our last 32 games looking like we'll be 3 and 34 when the season ends. We have enough draft picks to where we should be able to trade up to land some additional early impact. We should also have enough $ to compete for any free agents that can help us. Giddy up and get after it!
I welcome the only Defensive Coordinator to earn a Superbowl Ring in New Orleans while understanding Revenge of the Nerds is a sequel. "Come get some!" -
Excellent post.
Maybe these numbers can help illustrate something to all concerned parties...
Since the owner wants to build through the draft (and NOT sign high cost FA):
a. Can you actually do that? (given the facts you presented) and how many years would that take?;
b. It CAN'T be done in 1 year (as many fans seem to want)
I'm not willing to pass judgement on this FO or coaching staff after the first year of a complete gut-and-start-over rebuild.
I expected a losing team this year - just maybe not a winless one.
I'm even willing to give the FO the benefit of the doubt - at this point - and say they were looking 2-3 drafts ahead.
I was surprised early in the year that they weren't more disorganized and actually competed in most games. They even had late 4th quarter leads in some of those, but didn't close it out.
I agree that a BIG concern is that they haven't improved.
Any complete rebuild should be totally disorganized and ineffectual in the first half of the season. The second half is where you look to see if they've started coming together and are improving - even if they aren't winning.
Not seeing that here so far.
I suppose the real test of the coaching staff now will be if they can continue to compete in the last 5 games, or do they start quitting and mailing it in?
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On the pregame radio show, ex players described our owner as "a Dollar General store version of Jerry Jones", and that we as fans would be better off if jimminy ends up in jail.
Thanks for nothing Hasslam!
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My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)
1970-79 4th & later
141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......
Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)
Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate
1980-89 4th & later
97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......
Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)
Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....
1990-99 4th & later
58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...
Starter: Burnett(5)
Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....
2000-10 4th & later
54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...
Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)
Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....
2011-15 4th & later
24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...
Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...
Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....
summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks
374 drafts picks made........
16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....
........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...
358 players were not successful.....
So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)
and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....
All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....
Great job with that research!
When we used to be good at drafting mid to late as well as finding undrafted guys - we made the playoffs. I know you specified starters over several years but free agency kind of altered that to an extent. Therefore I just want to piggyback in some names of other important help we found from round 4 through undrafted FAs:
ILB Eddie Johnson was drafted in round 7 out of Louisville in 1981 and stayed here until 1990
LT Rickey Bolden was drafted in round 4 out of SMU in 1984 and played here until 1990
Safety Felix Wright undrafted and we snagged him from the CFL in 1985 and played 6 years for us
RB Herman Fontenot undrafted in 1985 contributed 47 receptions on 3rd downs in our 12 win season in 1986 (only stayed 3 years)
LT Tony (T-Bone) Jones was undrafted out of W. Carolina in 1988 stayed til the move. Started at LT for Denver's SB Champions.
Safety Thane Gash was drafted in round 7 out of East TN State in 1988 started 4 years here
RT Orlando Brown was undrafted out of South Carolina State in 1993 - stayed til the move and rejoined us in 99.
Our Free Agents from the USFL were:
ILB Mike Johnson
FB Kevin Mack
OG Dan Fike
CB Frank Minnifield
PR/KR - Gerald Ice Cube McNeil
These are some guys we drafted after trading up:
Mike Phipps #3 overall in 1970.
Kellen Winslow Jr #6 overall in 2004. Pittsburgh drafted Ben Roethlisberger at #11 overall
Brady Quinn #22 overall in 2007
Trent Richardson #3 overall in 2012
Brandon Weeden #22 overall in 2012. Russell Wilson was drafted at #75 overall
Johnny Manziel #22 overall in 2014. Derek Carr was drafted at #36 overall
I've been trained to not trust our choices when we traded up over the years. Meanwhile I've seen us succeed when our front office did well late in the draft as well as finding/signing UFAs. However, most of that was in the 80s and early 90s so I've also been trained that things can change. This is the worst 2 year span of football I can remember. We're 3 and 29 in our last 32 games looking like we'll be 3 and 34 when the season ends. We have enough draft picks to where we should be able to trade up to land some additional early impact. We should also have enough $ to compete for any free agents that can help us. Giddy up and get after it!
Great job with that research!
When we used to be good at drafting mid to late as well as finding undrafted guys - we made the playoffs. I know you specified starters over several years but free agency kind of altered that to an extent. Therefore I just want to piggyback in some names of other important help we found from round 4 through undrafted FAs:
ILB Eddie Johnson was drafted in round 7 out of Louisville in 1981 and stayed here until 1990
LT Rickey Bolden was drafted in round 4 out of SMU in 1984 and played here until 1990
Safety Felix Wright undrafted and we snagged him from the CFL in 1985 and played 6 years for us
RB Herman Fontenot undrafted in 1985 contributed 47 receptions on 3rd downs in our 12 win season in 1986 (only stayed 3 years)
LT Tony (T-Bone) Jones was undrafted out of W. Carolina in 1988 stayed til the move. Started at LT for Denver's SB Champions.
Safety Thane Gash was drafted in round 7 out of East TN State in 1988 started 4 years here
RT Orlando Brown was undrafted out of South Carolina State in 1993 - stayed til the move and rejoined us in 99.
I did include Eddie Johnson as one of our successful late picks......the rest of these guys are not draft choices, so it's a mute point. Im not saying you cant find a late pick gem or a UDFA contributor here and there,,,,Im saying you cant build a team with them....
Plus....many above were just PT helpers and not even starters.....let alone solid players.....Fontenot? 300 yards in 6 years.....Bolden?....6 year back up....Thane Gash?.....out of the league after 3 yrs.....etc.........Im talking about obtaining long term quality.....
Our Free Agents from the USFL were:
ILB Mike Johnson
FB Kevin Mack
OG Dan Fike
CB Frank Minnifield
PR/KR - Gerald Ice Cube McNeil
Well.....Johnson & Mack were both first round picks and the Cube was a 2nd......(not FA's).....these 5 players were all good contributors and none were acquired with middle to late picks......part of my beef has been we didnt go after any FA's and we are relying on a lot of middle/late picks.....and these 5 players show what you can get with high picks and FA signings.......
Id also point out that we traded like 6 middle/late picks for the rights to draft Kevin Mack and The Cube.....which is exactly what Im advocating we do here....
These are some guys we drafted after trading up:
Mike Phipps #3 overall in 1970.
Kellen Winslow Jr #6 overall in 2004. Pittsburgh drafted Ben Roethlisberger at #11 overall
Brady Quinn #22 overall in 2007
Trent Richardson #3 overall in 2012
Brandon Weeden #22 overall in 2012. Russell Wilson was drafted at #75 overall
Johnny Manziel #22 overall in 2014. Derek Carr was drafted at #36 overall
First...These were all trade ups within the first round...every one of em....my OP clearly states that I want to move up from the middle and late picks....not necessarily within the first round.....
Second....the #'s I presented show that there is still a slim margin of success...even in the higher rounds. So it is easy to find failed picks in any round....we all can do it....point is that those "trade ups" were not fails due to trading up....they were fails due to making a bad pick.....that coulda/woulda happened with a trade or no trade......but the higher you go, the better the odds are of success...
We have enough draft picks to where we should be able to trade up to land some additional early impact.
Which is my whole point.......IF they do it.....(last draft,m they didnt)
We should also have enough $ to compete for any free agents that can help us.
We had those $$$ last season too.....didnt sign shit......not even one OL or C ......pathetic....
Giddy up and get after it!
We shall see if the strategy changes......
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We will most likely have the 1st pick. I've said before that we should trade up and go after 2 of the top 3 guys in the draft.
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Without mewling over this whole thread, what I gather is that your bottom line is this: use all those late round picks we keep acquiring to trade up into the third round or higher?
I would be fine if the Browns would have 6 picks in the first three rounds and none beyond that. (the problem of course is that we cannot keep making such awful high picks as we have the last 5-8 years....you need value with those picks....not the JMZ, Erving, Mingo, Gilberts, TRs, Quinns, Weedens, Leon McFaddens etc etc. You need them to be Joe Haden, Joe Thomas, maybe Danny Shelton, maybe Joel Bitonio, maybe Mich Schwartz.
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Excellent read Mudfly. This team has so many holes to fill I was always looking at quantity versus quality (wouldn't it be great if you could get both?) but the stats don't lie. If you want quality talent it is going to come in the first few rounds. To try and build a team on later round drafts is chasing fools gold. Get the quality talent. Trade up.
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Questions... only in the interest of clarifying and/or refining a fine effort... or something...
- What, if any, consideration is there for Special Teamers? Not just Ks, Ps and LSs, but returners and coverage guys?
- Are the odds of hitting on a 4th and a 6th the same? What are the individual rates for the league for the Day 3 rounds?
- How dramatically do the success rates improve (league average is fine for the 2000's and 2010's subsets) in rounds 3, 2, and 1 individually?
- Who trades a 4 for two 7's?
OK... the last one was facetious, but you get my point. Any 2 for 1 pick trade has to increase the odds of success of the higher pick traded away alone in order to have a shot at statistically break even on the odds. And so many Day one and Two trades involve moving up within a Round plus later picks, either in the same or future drafts. So even more of a breakdown, quartiles at minimum, have to be made to evaluate a trade.
By the Harvard chart two 6th round compensatories might get you a pick around the mid-point of the 4th. Two mid-7ths might get you a 4th compensatory.
Then there's the matter of landing a few blue chips in a given draft. Two? Expected. Three? Eminently doable. Four? Ehhh... stretching it. A few? Damn hard.
I know "have time" does not mean unlimited. I'm happy to help with the trade chart evaluations, but let's go deeper...
1) very little consideration was given to ST type players. Just basing my standard on the type of players that create a buildable core and offer a significant contribution for a reasonable period of time. Hence the reason I labeled em backups and busts.....the one thing they all have in common is that they are below average NFL starters...
I also excluded one year wonders, etc that some might consider "good" picks, ala the Cameron or Benji types....
2) Yes,,,,there is nominal, if any, difference between 4-5 +6 rounds....though teams do tend to keep the lower(4) picks longer, not surprisingly confirming their earlier faith that that player was the better one....league averages are similar to the Browns....a smidge higher(8% ish)...
3) significantly...jump to the 3rd doubles your chances at 14-15%.....second triples them at 25%.....and 1st quadruples them at almost 35%(even higher if were just talking average starters....which to many, would be considered below average for 1st round).....so, I did assign a higher value AND expectation to first round picks....
The most significant thing that struck me, is you cannot build a team with massive middle and lates....it wont work....
1) very little consideration was given to ST type players. Just basing my standard on the type of players that create a buildable core and offer a significant contribution for a reasonable period of time. Hence the reason I labeled em backups and busts.....the one thing they all have in common is that they are below average NFL starters...
I also excluded one year wonders, etc that some might consider "good" picks, ala the Cameron or Benji types....
2) Yes,,,,there is nominal, if any, difference between 4-5 +6 rounds....though teams do tend to keep the lower(4) picks longer, not surprisingly confirming their earlier faith that that player was the better one....league averages are similar to the Browns....a smidge higher(8% ish)...
3) significantly...jump to the 3rd doubles your chances at 14-15%.....second triples them at 25%.....and 1st quadruples them at almost 35%(even higher if were just talking average starters....which to many, would be considered below average for 1st round).....so, I did assign a higher value AND expectation to first round picks....
The most significant thing that struck me, is you cannot build a team with massive middle and lates....it wont work....
- That's sound... nothing magical about later picks being better ST material... they may be a little more motivated, but since "wedge-busting" is no longer a thing, STs don't require the "want to" they used to...
- So Day 3 is more about perception of the desirability of a given player than odds. At least for R 4, 5, and 6. R7? Fall off?
- And there it is... trading two #2's for a #1 is not a good deal from an odds perspective... and have to remember that a next year #1 is valued like a #2. The odds make a case for trade downs, not trade ups.
The probability of one of two positive and independent outcomes is the sum of the probabilities of each one minus the probability of both occurring. So the odds of hitting on one of two 2nd round picks is:
0.25 + 0.25 - (0.25 x 0.25) = 0.50 - 0.0625 = 0.4375 ==> 43.75 %
However, since we would not mind hitting on both 2nd rounders the 0.0625 should be added back in setting the final odds at 50%... SCIENCE! or at least math. And that bests 35% by a considerable margin.
The fly in the ointment? The two outcomes are not truly independent since the decisions come from the same source. But whether you think this FO increases or decreases our odds of success vs. the league norm, that opinion impacts the odds in all rounds. So it impacts the input to the statistical assessment, not the math behind it.
So it all comes down to who you like how much vs. the rest of the league and then either being right... or at minimum, not being wrong. And as I put forth in a thread a week or two ago about "Browns' 2016 Draft Busts", there may be some "Incompletes" on our new FO's report card, but on a simple Pass/Fail scale, there are no "F's"... at least not yet in public view.
And that's a lot better than past FOs...
You're just NOW thinking of it?
lol... beat me to it...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
A lot of excellent points Mud!
Sorry I butchered the USFL stuff calling them Free Agents. They were all supplemental draft picks back when drafts went 12 rounds so it never hurt us to pull the trigger on the perceived impact like Mack at the expense of losing future picks that may or may not pan out. Very similar to this year's situation in terms of having a lot of picks and choosing perceived impact over much more maybes. As I've already said in both of my previous posts in this thread - this is growing on me big time.
Because of how hurried and sloppy I was last night - here's a cut and paste of what I just found online about our drafts from 84-89. In particular, it shows a lot of success with the type of ideology you're hoping our current front office adopts:
1984
1 Rogers, Don S UCLA
2a Rockins, Chris S Oklahoma State choice acquired from LA Rams for negotiating rights to WR Ron Brown
2b Davis, Bruce WR Baylor
3 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo along with Browns' 1st choice in 1983 and 5th choice in 1985 for LB Tom Cousineau
4a Bolden, Rickey TE Southern Methodist choice acquired from Denver for WR Dave Logan
4b Brennan, Brian WR Boston College
5 Piepkorn, Dave T North Dakota State
6 Nugent, Terry QB Colorado State
7 Dumont, Jim LB Rutgers
8 Browns' choice traded to N.Y. Jets for WR Bobby Jones
9a Jones, Don WR Texas A&M choice acquired from Philadelphia for LB Bill Cowher;
9b Browns' choice traded to Chicago along with Browns' 10th, 11th and 12th round choices in 1984 for Bears' three picks in June, 1984 supplemental draft of players under contract to another league
10a Browns' choice traded to Chicago, see 9b
10b Byner, Earnest RB East Carolina choice acquired from LA Raiders for G-T Henry Sheppard
11 Browns' choice traded to Chicago, see 9b 12 Browns' choice traded to Chicago, see 9b
1984 Supplemental Draft
1a Mack, Kevin RB Clemson choice acquired from Chicago for Browns' 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th round choices in 1984 NFL Draft
1b Johnson, Mike LB Virginia Tech
2a McNeil, Gerald WR Baylor Choice acquired from Chicago, see 1a
2b Robison, Tommy T Texas A&M
3a West, Doug LB UCLA choice acquired from Chicago, see 1a
3b Bond, John QB Mississippi State
1985
1 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo along with 1st choice in 1986, 3rd in 1985, and a 6th in 1986 for Buffalo's first pick in 1985 supplemental draft
2 Allen, Greg RB Florida State
3 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo, see 1
4 Browns' choice traded to Miami for WR Duriel Harris
5 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo along with Browns' 1st in 1983 and 3rd in 1984 for LB Tom Cousineau
6 Krerowicz, Mark G Ohio State
7 Langhorne, Reggie WR Elizabeth City
8 Banks, Fred WR Liberty Baptist
9 Browns' choice traded to Philadelphia for DE Carl Hairston
10 Williams, Larry G Notre Dame
11 Tucker, Travis TE S. Connecticut State
12 Swanson, Shane WR Nebraska
1985 Supplemental Draft
1 Kosar, Bernie QB Miami choice acquired from Buffalo for 1st in 1985 and 1986, 3rd in 1985 and 6th in 1986
1986
1 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo along with 1st choice in 1985 3rd in 1985 and a 6th in '86 for Buffalo's first pick in 1985 supplemental draft
2 Slaughter, Webster WR San Diego State
3 Browns' choice traded to Detroit for QB Gary Danielson
4 Browns' choice traded to LA Rams for WR Terry Greer
5 Miller, Nick LB Arkansas
6 Browns' choice traded to Buffalo, see 1
7a Meyer, Jim T Illinois State
7b Norseth, Mike QB Kansas choice acquired from Kansas City for RB Boyce Green
8 Browns' choice traded to Philadelphia for LB Anthony Griggs
9 Taylor, Danny DB Texas (El Paso)
10 Smith, Willie TE Miami
11 Dausin, Randy G Texas A&M
12 Simmons, King CB Texas Tech
1987
1 Junkin, Mike LB Duke choice acquired from San Diego, along with San Diego's second 1987 choice in exchange for Browns' 1987 first and second round choices and LB-Chip Banks
2 Rakoczy, Gregg OT/C Miami choice acquired from San Diego, see round 1
3a Manoa, Tim FB Penn State
3b Jaeger, Jeff K Washington choice acquired from LA Rams in exchange for Browns' 1987 4th, 5th and 12th round picks
4 Browns' choice to LA Rams, see 3b
5 Browns' choice to LA Rams, see 3b
6 Braggs, Stephen DB Texas
7 Browns' choice to Green Bay for WR-John Jefferson
8 Bullitt, Steve LB Texas A&M
9 Browns' choice to Indianapolis for QB-Mike Pagel
10 Winters, Frank C Western Illinois
11 Brewton, Larry DB Temple
12 Browns' choice to LA Rams, see 3b
1988
1 Charlton, Clifford LB Florida [21st overall]
2 Perry, Michael Dean DL Clemson [50th]
3 Waiters, Van LB Indiana [77th]
4 Blaylock, Anthony CB Winston-Salem [103rd]
5 Browns' choice traded to Phoenix for DE AI Baker
6 Browns' choice traded to Philadelphia along with CB D.D. Hoggard for DL Chris Pike;
7 Gash, Thane S East Tennessee State [188th]
8 Birden, J.J. WR Oregon [216th]
9 Copeland, Danny S Eastern Kentucky [244th]
10 Washington, Brian S Nebraska [272nd]
11 Hawkins, Hendley WR Nebraska [300th]
12 Slayden, Steve QB Duke [328th]
1989
1 Metcalf, Eric RB Texas choice acquired from Denver for Browns' 1989 1st, 2nd, 5th and 9th [13th overall]
2 Tillman, Lawyer WR Auburn choice acquired from Green Bay along with Green Bay's 1989 5th for Browns' 1989 3rd, 1989 5th, 1990 1st and RB Herman Fontenot [31st]
3 Browns' choice to Green Bay - see round 2
4 Stewart, Andrew DE Cincinnati [107th]
5a Kramer, Kyle S Bowling Green choice acquired from Green Bay - see round two [114th]
5b Joines, Vernon WR Maryland choice acquired from Kansas City for LB Mike Junkin [116th]
6 Wilkerson, Gary CB Penn State [160th]
7 Graybill, Mike OT Boston University [187th]
8 Aeilts, Rick TE S.E. Missouri State [215th]
9 Browns' selection traded to Denver - see round 1
10 Buddenberg, John OT Akron [274th]
11 Plocki, Dan K Maryland [301st]
12 Brown, Marlon LB Memphis State [328th]
-
1) very little consideration was given to ST type players. Just basing my standard on the type of players that create a buildable core and offer a significant contribution for a reasonable period of time. Hence the reason I labeled em backups and busts.....the one thing they all have in common is that they are below average NFL starters...
I also excluded one year wonders, etc that some might consider "good" picks, ala the Cameron or Benji types....
2) Yes,,,,there is nominal, if any, difference between 4-5 +6 rounds....though teams do tend to keep the lower(4) picks longer, not surprisingly confirming their earlier faith that that player was the better one....league averages are similar to the Browns....a smidge higher(8% ish)...
3) significantly...jump to the 3rd doubles your chances at 14-15%.....second triples them at 25%.....and 1st quadruples them at almost 35%(even higher if were just talking average starters....which to many, would be considered below average for 1st round).....so, I did assign a higher value AND expectation to first round picks....
The most significant thing that struck me, is you cannot build a team with massive middle and lates....it wont work....
- That's sound... nothing magical about later picks being better ST material... they may be a little more motivated, but since "wedge-busting" is no longer a thing, STs don't require the "want to" they used to...
- So Day 3 is more about perception of the desirability of a given player than odds. At least for R 4, 5, and 6. R7? Fall off?
- And there it is... trading two #2's for a #1 is not a good deal from an odds perspective... and have to remember that a next year #1 is valued like a #2. The odds make a case for trade downs, not trade ups.
The probability of one of two positive and independent outcomes is the sum of the probabilities of each one minus the probability of both occurring. So the odds of hitting on one of two 2nd round picks is:
0.25 + 0.25 - (0.25 x 0.25) = 0.50 - 0.0625 = 0.4375 ==> 43.75 %
However, since we would not mind hitting on both 2nd rounders the 0.0625 should be added back in setting the final odds at 50%... SCIENCE! or at least math. And that bests 35% by a considerable margin.
The fly in the ointment? The two outcomes are not truly independent since the decisions come from the same source. But whether you think this FO increases or decreases our odds of success vs. the league norm, that opinion impacts the odds in all rounds. So it impacts the input to the statistical assessment, not the math behind it.
So it all comes down to who you like how much vs. the rest of the league and then either being right... or at minimum, not being wrong. And as I put forth in a thread a week or two ago about "Browns' 2016 Draft Busts", there may be some "Incompletes" on our new FO's report card, but on a simple Pass/Fail scale, there are no "F's"... at least not yet in public view.
And that's a lot better than past FOs...
You're just NOW thinking of it?
lol... beat me to it...
And there it is... trading two #2's for a #1 is not a good deal from an odds perspective... and have to remember that a next year #1 is valued like a #2. The odds make a case for trade downs, not trade ups
Ive never minded trade downs, within reason.....what I dont want to do....ever.....is trade out of the top 10......last draft I was up for a trade back, but no further than 8, as I felt thats where the drop off was.....
I also dont want to dilute our picks for average picks.....so to give up #1 and end up with a 16 and 20 is not my idea of a good trade.....
My main point on this thread is to use later picks to either get more top 100 picks.....or improve our position with the 5 we have.....simple....
The fly in the ointment? The two outcomes are not truly independent since the decisions come from the same source. But whether you think this FO increases or decreases our odds of success vs. the league norm, that opinion impacts the odds in all rounds. So it impacts the input to the statistical assessment, not the math behind it.
Havent drawn a final conclusion here, but ...so far....have nothing to indicate this FO is better than past FO's......and a number of things to indicate it isnt...
And as I put forth in a thread a week or two ago about "Browns' 2016 Draft Busts", there may be some "Incompletes" on our new FO's report card, but on a simple Pass/Fail scale, there are no "F's"... at least not yet in public view.
Too early to declare a bust(F).....but there are a number of zero contributors(thats Z.E.R.O.).....and a number of extra average performers who are not progressing well.....and a regressor or 2.....
So...in a year that is committed to developing youth, anyone NOT playing or contributing has to be considered on the edge...cause if you dont get to play when there is not competition or talent, then when WILL you play???......these potential "F" players include Shon Coleman, Payton, Higgins, Caldwell, Wright, Louis.....and, if he's only a back up, then Kessler in the third is kind of a bust too.....which leaves Nassib(invisible since game #1), Devalve(2catches), Schobert (already demoted from starter for a udfa we already cut)...
So 14 picks......no "F" 's yet......but no A's either......and only 2 who look even close to legit(and one of em keeps dropping passes)
-
The only useful late-round pick I can think of on the Browns right now?
The Paz, UDFA.
I completely agree.. if Sashi doesn't have anything to do after drafting 7 players before the end of the second day [the third round] then IMHO we had a good 2017 draft.
Is there anyone silly enough to take 4th, 5th round picks to let us move into the 3rd or higher? I'm looking at you, Jacksonville and SanFran and Miami! Let's find out.
-
This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....
Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....
Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....
Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...
Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.
So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....
Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....
And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....
So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts
My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)
1970-79 4th & later
141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......
Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)
Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate
1980-89 4th & later
97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......
Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)
Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....
1990-99 4th & later
58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...
Starter: Burnett(5)
Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....
2000-10 4th & later
54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...
Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)
Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....
2011-15 4th & later
24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...
Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...
Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....
summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks
374 drafts picks made........
16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....
........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...
358 players were not successful.....
So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)
and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....
So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......
Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?
do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?
I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......
All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....
This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....
Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....
Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....
Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...
Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.
So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....
Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....
And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....
So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts
My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)
1970-79 4th & later
141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......
Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)
Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate
1980-89 4th & later
97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......
Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)
Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....
1990-99 4th & later
58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...
Starter: Burnett(5)
Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....
2000-10 4th & later
54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...
Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)
Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....
2011-15 4th & later
24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...
Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...
Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....
summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks
374 drafts picks made........
16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....
........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...
358 players were not successful.....
So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)
and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....
So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......
Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?
do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?
I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......
All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....
Good post,and you and the Browns brass might not be far off.
I think last year was about collecting bodies. And collecting draft picks. Now you can go after stars. We far and away have the most draft currency for the next several years, so we WILL get the players we want. Let's pray to good they are winners.
Zombo
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