On The Record: Make your QB predictions
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I'm not too interested in W-L as an indicator of which QBs will make the transition to the NFL. The list of college QBs who won the biggest game of all over the past decade plus is full of names like Leinart, Young, Tebow, Flynn, McElroy, McCarron, Leak etc. Football is referred to as the ultimate team sport, and with so many moving parts it's irresponsible to put the W-L column on one person. I look for traits, can a prospect break down the play quickly and determine where the ball should go? Can a prospect deliver the ball accurately? These are the questions I need answered when evaluating quarterbacks.
As far as physical traits go, Kizer is the prototype in this class. combined with his intelligence and understanding of the game, he's a great prospect. Kizer may not have the best release, he may have been marooned on a rat shit team with a malignant narcissist for a head coach, and he may need to work on the decisions he makes, but that doesn't mean he can't play football.
LOL, I can play football too, not very well at my advanced age. But your defense of Kizer is duly noted. Hmmm... ya know who's the same size with a cannon arm, noted for making bad decisions? I give you Brandon Wee-done. He also carries the ND curse on his head. Unless a guy from that school is all world (and Kizer isn't) I'm taking him off my draft board.
Now I have a low opinion of Kelly- but- Trubisky may have only played one year @ NC, but at least he didn't get benched. Deshone must have been playing stinko bad to pull off that feat.
PS don't give me that "prototype" crap. You don't have to be 6'4" to be a great NFL qb. Like Brett Farve, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees.
Kizer has a lot of growing to do, but unlike Weeden he won't enter draft night as a 30 year old mongoloid. He is an intelligent 21 year old who has far greater athletic talent than Weeden and seems to have a good mental grasp on the game of football.LOL, I can play football too, not very well at my advanced age. But your defense of Kizer is duly noted. Hmmm... ya know who's the same size with a cannon arm, noted for making bad decisions? I give you Brandon Wee-done. He also carries the ND curse on his head. Unless a guy from that school is all world (and Kizer isn't) I'm taking him off my draft board.
Now I have a low opinion of Kelly- but- Trubisky may have only played one year @ NC, but at least he didn't get benched. Deshone must have been playing stinko bad to pull off that feat.
PS don't give me that "prototype" crap. You don't have to be 6'4" to be a great NFL qb. Like Brett Farve, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees.
I never understood how the college a prospect went to has anything to do with his potential. Some bad QBs came out of Notre Dame, but so did Joe Montana. Transversely, were you someone who was begging for Chad Henne because he went to the same school as Tom Brady?
Trubisky has a great release, good accuracy and mobility, but he also made a lot of bad decisions (didn't a referee have a forced fumble on trubs)? The difference is that Trubisky is a mouth breather. Mitch has a lot of desirable traits, but I'm not sure I want to put the future of my franchise in the hands of skinny gronk.
Your third point is absolutely correct, a guy doesn't have to be 6'4" to be a successful NFL QB, but it seems like I've watched a decade of the browns using at least 3 QBs a year. Kizer' size is just an added bonus.
Ultimately, it comes down to my philosophy with this draft class. I don't want any 1st rd QB this year. Trubs and Watson have too many question marks and Mahomes is a riddle wrapped in an enigma. It's looking more and more like Kizer will be available in the mid rounds and while I used to think 33 was a good place to draft a QB, I'm not so sure anymore. There will undoubtedly be 1st round talent available there, so I'm thinking #52 should be the earliest a QB is selected. Of the guys most likely available at 52 or later, I'll take Kizer or Dobbs over the rest, just how I feel about this class.
I say all that to say this, wtf do I know? I'm probably going to be hella wrong about this stuff. I spend my days cleaning Draft Beer systems and drawing goofy shit, if the Browns feel *THE GUY* is available, they better pounce.
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Kizer has a lot of growing to do, but unlike Weeden he won't enter draft night as a 30 year old mongoloid. He is an intelligent 21 year old who has far greater athletic talent than Weeden and seems to have a good mental grasp on the game of football.LOL, I can play football too, not very well at my advanced age. But your defense of Kizer is duly noted. Hmmm... ya know who's the same size with a cannon arm, noted for making bad decisions? I give you Brandon Wee-done. He also carries the ND curse on his head. Unless a guy from that school is all world (and Kizer isn't) I'm taking him off my draft board.
Now I have a low opinion of Kelly- but- Trubisky may have only played one year @ NC, but at least he didn't get benched. Deshone must have been playing stinko bad to pull off that feat.
PS don't give me that "prototype" crap. You don't have to be 6'4" to be a great NFL qb. Like Brett Farve, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees.
I never understood how the college a prospect went to has anything to do with his potential. Some bad QBs came out of Notre Dame, but so did Joe Montana. Transversely, were you someone who was begging for Chad Henne because he went to the same school as Tom Brady?
Trubisky has a great release, good accuracy and mobility, but he also made a lot of bad decisions (didn't a referee have a forced fumble on trubs)? The difference is that Trubisky is a mouth breather. Mitch has a lot of desirable traits, but I'm not sure I want to put the future of my franchise in the hands of skinny gronk.
Your third point is absolutely correct, a guy doesn't have to be 6'4" to be a successful NFL QB, but it seems like I've watched a decade of the browns using at least 3 QBs a year. Kizer' size is just an added bonus.
Ultimately, it comes down to my philosophy with this draft class. I don't want any 1st rd QB this year. Trubs and Watson have too many question marks and Mahomes is a riddle wrapped in an enigma. It's looking more and more like Kizer will be available in the mid rounds and while I used to think 33 was a good place to draft a QB, I'm not so sure anymore. There will undoubtedly be 1st round talent available there, so I'm thinking #52 should be the earliest a QB is selected. Of the guys most likely available at 52 or later, I'll take Kizer or Dobbs over the rest, just how I feel about this class.
I say all that to say this, wtf do I know? I'm probably going to be hella wrong about this stuff. I spend my days cleaning Draft Beer systems and drawing goofy shit, if the Browns feel *THE GUY* is available, they better pounce.
I say all that to say this, wtf do I know? I'm probably going to be hella wrong about this stuff. I spend my days cleaning Draft Beer systems and drawing goofy shit, if the Browns feel *THE GUY* is available, they better pounce.
This is my perspective....100%
Dont see the guy.....and dont want us to draft one in the top 3 rounds.....
But if the brain trust see's the guy....they shouldnt get cute and hope he falls....just grab him and live or die with the decision...
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I'm not too interested in W-L as an indicator of which QBs will make the transition to the NFL. The list of college QBs who won the biggest game of all over the past decade plus is full of names like Leinart, Young, Tebow, Flynn, McElroy, McCarron, Leak etc. Football is referred to as the ultimate team sport, and with so many moving parts it's irresponsible to put the W-L column on one person. I look for traits, can a prospect break down the play quickly and determine where the ball should go? Can a prospect deliver the ball accurately? These are the questions I need answered when evaluating quarterbacks.
As far as physical traits go, Kizer is the prototype in this class. combined with his intelligence and understanding of the game, he's a great prospect. Kizer may not have the best release, he may have been marooned on a rat shit team with a malignant narcissist for a head coach, and he may need to work on the decisions he makes, but that doesn't mean he can't play football.
LOL, I can play football too, not very well at my advanced age. But your defense of Kizer is duly noted. Hmmm... ya know who's the same size with a cannon arm, noted for making bad decisions? I give you Brandon Wee-done. He also carries the ND curse on his head. Unless a guy from that school is all world (and Kizer isn't) I'm taking him off my draft board.
Now I have a low opinion of Kelly- but- Trubisky may have only played one year @ NC, but at least he didn't get benched. Deshone must have been playing stinko bad to pull off that feat.
PS don't give me that "prototype" crap. You don't have to be 6'4" to be a great NFL qb. Like Brett Farve, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees.
Wunderlick? OK I guess, but not definitive. Why not just look at what they studied and how well they did?"
No rocket scientists (yet), but Economics vs Phys Ed vs "undeclared"??? And the latter was a senior at the time?
http://sportschatter.com/sports-talk/slideshow/college-major-every-quarterback-nfl/
Trubisky may have only played one year @ NC, but at least he didn't get benched.
Ummmmm... kinda like closing the barn doors after the horses have all run out...
Best: Chad Kelly
Attaboy... I was getting lonely.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Wunderlick? OK I guess, but not definitive. Why not just look at what they studied and how well they did?"
No rocket scientists (yet), but Economics vs Phys Ed vs "undeclared"??? And the latter was a senior at the time?
http://sportschatter.com/sports-talk/slideshow/college-major-every-quarterback-nfl/
Trubisky may have only played one year @ NC, but at least he didn't get benched.
Ummmmm... kinda like closing the barn doors after the horses have all run out...
Best: Chad Kelly
Attaboy... I was getting lonely.
Wunderlick? OK I guess, but not definitive.
Nothing is definitive....hence we have many many things we measure to draw our conclusions....including intelligence and decision making....and the Wonderlic is not just a basic IQ test....is forces you to make quick decisions under pressure....and guess what....there is a correlation between successful NFL QB's and intelligence and decision making under pressure.....in fact, it's a primary requirement....
Here are a few wonderlic factoids for you....
First....50 is a perfect score....so, in essence, a 20 would be 40%....a 30 would be 60%....etc
Right now....of the 32 starting QB's in the league....31 of them scored 20 or higher.....31 out of 32.....(thats a slam dunk for scoring higher than 20, wouldnt you say???
But the average score for a WR is 17.....a RB is 16....CB is 18....LB is 19.....and that is the AVERAGE....while there is only ONE QB below 20....doesnt that say it all right there?.....
Who is below 20?....Tyrod Taylor @ 15....the only weird one I see is Derek Carr, who is the next lowest at 20.....the exception
But the really good ones?.....for the most part(with the prerequisite exception or 2)....are all 30 plus......
Guys like Brady, Ryan, Rodgers, Stafford, Luck, Smith, Rivers, Manning, etc.....are all 30's and higher....
So.....I have no clue what Trubs(or any of the prospects, ftm) score was....but if he got a 15, then Im thinking the odds are against him being successful....and listening to him talk, Im thinking he is at tremendous risk of having a super low score....
On a side note....I mentioned how poorly Corey Colemen came off this week in his interview, so decided to see where he was.....no surprises.....he has one of the lowest scores ever at 10....probably doesnt matter, but certainly is confirmation of what I sensed, when I listened to him speak.....(and I have the same sense with Trubs)
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I've taken online Wunderlick and Wunderlickish tests. It can be prepared for just as SATs or PEs can be... thru practice and a systematic approach.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
I've taken online Wunderlick and Wunderlickish tests. It can be prepared for just as SATs or PEs can be... thru practice and a systematic approach.
I've taken online Wunderlick and Wunderlickish tests. It can be prepared for just as SATs or PEs can be... thru practice and a systematic approach.
Yep....and most of these guys take practice tests and prepare for the big one....which is why a 10-15 is something to worry about....
So.....its like the guy who fails the piss test at the combine....is it a bigger problem that he smokes weed or that he's too dumb and uncommitted to show up clean?.....
Same with this test right?.....The smart ones come prepared and pass....the dumb ones dont....
Tour.....what is your view on 31 outta 32 starting QB's being over 20?.....while most other positions average well below(except OT, of course)......does that not ring your bell even a little?.....you? a guy who likes 3 cone tests and long jump #'s....cmon, you gotta know it matters...
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Heres another way to look at it....
All things being equal.....same height weight speed and ability....except one prospect is dumb like a rock and the other is intelligent...who would you pick and why?....
Heres another way to look at it....
All things being equal.....same height weight speed and ability....except one prospect is dumb like a rock and the other is intelligent...who would you pick and why?....
QBs and OL, the smarter one. Everyone else, the dumber. They will play with more abandon.
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Yeah...Im more worried about QB's than the others.....but looking at the lists, I still think the best of the best(at most positions) are usually higher intellect guys....not always.....but usually....
Though, Ill say there are many exceptions.....so this is just another box you'd like to check.....but sometimes wont....
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well, I know a guy, who knows a guy, who emailed Mary Kay one time, and he says the Browns
are trading their #33 pick to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers. You know it's going to happen, because
He's 33, and they will have drafted Trubisky or Watson with their first round pick.
But don't tell anybody, it's a super duper secret scoop from the guy. the first guy, not the second guy.
Although, I wouldn't put it past Mary Kay to read this and tweet it or something......
3.66 days before the draft. dammit.
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None are worth a 12 or higher.
Best: Watson just because he wins
Most overrated: Trubs-does not seem to have a clue when answering questions and can't even remember most of the question.
Worst: Dobbs -though he has the smarts, he does not seem to possess the arm
Best: PETERMAN OR KELLY
Most overrated: TRUBS,WATSON.KIZER.
Worst: WEBB
A Big Kessler Fan Now^^2 Wildcards--MaHolmes or Dobbs--could be DAK or pure Crap
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Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
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Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
Manziel 32
FIFY-bring him back from "temporary retirement".
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Haha
I saw a draft guy on twitter make a comment that made sense to me, high scores don't make you pick anybody but a really low one and you do take notice and want to know why
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What's the time frame here? Are we talking about which QB will EVENTUALLY be the best, or who will be the most functional right away? I think the question asks which one will BE the best, so let's give it a three year window.
I don't see any of the rookies QB's "blowing up" similar to a Dak Prescott. I know that's the dream of every GM and head coach, but it's a rarity in the NFL. Dak went to virtually the best possible situation, and he seized control in the preseason and never let go. It was simply awesome to watch.
That being said, I agree with many of the analysts who say that Trubisky can be the most efficient QB the earliest. Even though he's only started 13 games or so, he's obviously a quick study and also has the physical skills needed to make enough plays to have what I think will be a successful NFL season. I don't expect greatness, but maybe something similar to what Carson Wentz did...if Trubisky goes to a team with SOME talent. I don't see Watson, Kizer, Mahomes, or anyone else having a noteworthy impact as a rookie.
Now, who will be the best QB after three years, and who will end up having the best career? That's a tough one for me because there are so many variables. How long will each guy get to sit and learn? How much talent will each guy have to work with? What kind of offensive system will they be playing in? Mahomes has the best "arm talent" by far, but that doesn't always translate to the best results. Jamarcus Russell comes to mind, but I also understand he wasn't a hard worker either. From what I understand, each of these young QB's has a dynamite work ethic, so that doesn't seem to be an issue. I've read the reports on Watson, and I understand that his throwing velocity was VERY subpar, but I wouldn't underestimate that guy. What he did in college was nothing short of amazing, and I wouldn't put it past Watson to dive into the NFL game and WILL himself to greatness. I don't like Kizer, and I never have. I've read multiple times that he doesn't process information quickly, and he holds onto the ball too long. That's the kiss of death IMO, and even though he looks like he was built at a QB factory, I have serious doubts with his ability to play in this league. I think Trubisky will be "good to very good", but I don't think he'll ever be "great". Thing is...I'd settle for "good to very good" in a skinny second.
The wildcard in my eyes is a guy named Chad Kelly. I know there are multiple reports that he's an asshole, and I know he's had some off the field issues, but something tells me Chad Kelly has a chance to start in the NFL and be a very good prospect. I think a team will get him later in the draft and perhaps have a steal on their hands.
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Predictions
Trubisky ... Jets at 6
Watson ... Texans at 25
Mahomes ... Chiefs at 27
Kizer ... 49rs at 34
Webb - Browns at 52
Dobbs - Saints at 76
Peterman - Steelers at 135
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Tribusky Bills @ 10
Mahomes Cards @ 13
Kizer Chiefs @ 27
Watson Jaguars @ 35
Webb Jets @ 39
Dobbs Browns @ 65
Peterman Bears @ 67
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please wonderlic..
lot of HOF qb's had low wonderlic scores BUT does show if you can learn a playbook your 1st year...real test is personality and vision very few of these kidsacan a pass to a te in the red zone in the backof the field...even fewer have the touch to make that pass and fewer still have the guts to try
IMO my world Peterman, Watson and Mahomes comes closest in a bad draft year.
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Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
Watson having a Wonderlich of 20....and an arm speed of only 49 are two big demerits on him.
I understand that people say he has leadership and confidence...but is that enough?
For those reasons, I will give him the "most likely bust" label. (plus...I don't think that any QB that is drafted below round 2 should ever be considered a "bust"...as QBs drafted that low come in with expectations of being a backup at best).
Best will be Trubisky. Does he have a lot to learn? Absolutely. But, I assume this is a long term...crockpot question, not a microwave...immediate gratification question.
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That 49mph has, I believe, since been revised even lower to 45mph because of the gun used. Far far too low a speed to be considered draftable.
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