On The Record: Make your QB predictions
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well, I know a guy, who knows a guy, who emailed Mary Kay one time, and he says the Browns
are trading their #33 pick to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers. You know it's going to happen, because
He's 33, and they will have drafted Trubisky or Watson with their first round pick.
But don't tell anybody, it's a super duper secret scoop from the guy. the first guy, not the second guy.
Although, I wouldn't put it past Mary Kay to read this and tweet it or something......
3.66 days before the draft. dammit.
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None are worth a 12 or higher.
Best: Watson just because he wins
Most overrated: Trubs-does not seem to have a clue when answering questions and can't even remember most of the question.
Worst: Dobbs -though he has the smarts, he does not seem to possess the arm
Best: PETERMAN OR KELLY
Most overrated: TRUBS,WATSON.KIZER.
Worst: WEBB
A Big Kessler Fan Now^^2 Wildcards--MaHolmes or Dobbs--could be DAK or pure Crap
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Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
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Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
Manziel 32
FIFY-bring him back from "temporary retirement".
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Haha
I saw a draft guy on twitter make a comment that made sense to me, high scores don't make you pick anybody but a really low one and you do take notice and want to know why
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What's the time frame here? Are we talking about which QB will EVENTUALLY be the best, or who will be the most functional right away? I think the question asks which one will BE the best, so let's give it a three year window.
I don't see any of the rookies QB's "blowing up" similar to a Dak Prescott. I know that's the dream of every GM and head coach, but it's a rarity in the NFL. Dak went to virtually the best possible situation, and he seized control in the preseason and never let go. It was simply awesome to watch.
That being said, I agree with many of the analysts who say that Trubisky can be the most efficient QB the earliest. Even though he's only started 13 games or so, he's obviously a quick study and also has the physical skills needed to make enough plays to have what I think will be a successful NFL season. I don't expect greatness, but maybe something similar to what Carson Wentz did...if Trubisky goes to a team with SOME talent. I don't see Watson, Kizer, Mahomes, or anyone else having a noteworthy impact as a rookie.
Now, who will be the best QB after three years, and who will end up having the best career? That's a tough one for me because there are so many variables. How long will each guy get to sit and learn? How much talent will each guy have to work with? What kind of offensive system will they be playing in? Mahomes has the best "arm talent" by far, but that doesn't always translate to the best results. Jamarcus Russell comes to mind, but I also understand he wasn't a hard worker either. From what I understand, each of these young QB's has a dynamite work ethic, so that doesn't seem to be an issue. I've read the reports on Watson, and I understand that his throwing velocity was VERY subpar, but I wouldn't underestimate that guy. What he did in college was nothing short of amazing, and I wouldn't put it past Watson to dive into the NFL game and WILL himself to greatness. I don't like Kizer, and I never have. I've read multiple times that he doesn't process information quickly, and he holds onto the ball too long. That's the kiss of death IMO, and even though he looks like he was built at a QB factory, I have serious doubts with his ability to play in this league. I think Trubisky will be "good to very good", but I don't think he'll ever be "great". Thing is...I'd settle for "good to very good" in a skinny second.
The wildcard in my eyes is a guy named Chad Kelly. I know there are multiple reports that he's an asshole, and I know he's had some off the field issues, but something tells me Chad Kelly has a chance to start in the NFL and be a very good prospect. I think a team will get him later in the draft and perhaps have a steal on their hands.
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Predictions
Trubisky ... Jets at 6
Watson ... Texans at 25
Mahomes ... Chiefs at 27
Kizer ... 49rs at 34
Webb - Browns at 52
Dobbs - Saints at 76
Peterman - Steelers at 135
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Tribusky Bills @ 10
Mahomes Cards @ 13
Kizer Chiefs @ 27
Watson Jaguars @ 35
Webb Jets @ 39
Dobbs Browns @ 65
Peterman Bears @ 67
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please wonderlic..
lot of HOF qb's had low wonderlic scores BUT does show if you can learn a playbook your 1st year...real test is personality and vision very few of these kidsacan a pass to a te in the red zone in the backof the field...even fewer have the touch to make that pass and fewer still have the guts to try
IMO my world Peterman, Watson and Mahomes comes closest in a bad draft year.
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Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
Watson having a Wonderlich of 20....and an arm speed of only 49 are two big demerits on him.
I understand that people say he has leadership and confidence...but is that enough?
For those reasons, I will give him the "most likely bust" label. (plus...I don't think that any QB that is drafted below round 2 should ever be considered a "bust"...as QBs drafted that low come in with expectations of being a backup at best).
Best will be Trubisky. Does he have a lot to learn? Absolutely. But, I assume this is a long term...crockpot question, not a microwave...immediate gratification question.
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That 49mph has, I believe, since been revised even lower to 45mph because of the gun used. Far far too low a speed to be considered draftable.
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I've taken online Wunderlick and Wunderlickish tests. It can be prepared for just as SATs or PEs can be... thru practice and a systematic approach.
Yep....and most of these guys take practice tests and prepare for the big one....which is why a 10-15 is something to worry about....
So.....its like the guy who fails the piss test at the combine....is it a bigger problem that he smokes weed or that he's too dumb and uncommitted to show up clean?.....
Same with this test right?.....The smart ones come prepared and pass....the dumb ones dont....
Tour.....what is your view on 31 outta 32 starting QB's being over 20?.....while most other positions average well below(except OT, of course)......does that not ring your bell even a little?.....you? a guy who likes 3 cone tests and long jump #'s....cmon, you gotta know it matters...
Tour.....what is your view on 31 outta 32 starting QB's being over 20?.....while most other positions average well below(except OT, of course)......does that not ring your bell even a little?.....you? a guy who likes 3 cone tests and long jump #'s....cmon, you gotta know it matters...
Not meaning to completely dismiss the test, Mud. Yes, I think a low score is problematic. It potentially signals a general lack of intelligence, but more likely either a lack of prep or processing speed.
I've met a lot of very desk-smart people in my engineering life who couldn't think on their feet. If the Wunderlick does nothing else, it puts a premium on speed of thought... a key factor in any QB's success. While prep can enhance a score, it can't manufacture one.
So the question becomes: Is there a minimum acceptable score, and if so, what is it? My guess is that there is a score at which the probability of success drops off dramatically. Twenty seems as good of a number as any, especially if it's statistically supported by NFL performance and adjusted for test-to-test variation (just as SATs are).
Then the question becomes: Once that minimum is exceeded, does higher mean better or more likely to succeed? I doubt that, if for no other reason than that anecdotally Fitzgerald exists... but again, stats have to determine whether or not the probability of success flat-lines above some score.
No matter the measure... 40-time, Vert leap, 3-cone, pass velocity or Wunderlick... I don't see absolutes; I don't see performance "guarantees". But sure there can be concerns raised as well as positive takes reinforced.
OR... as LB succinctly put it...
I saw a draft guy on twitter make a comment that made sense to me, high scores don't make you pick anybody but a really low one and you do take notice and want to know why
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Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
Wonderlic scores: Beathard 26 - Dobbs 29 - Kaaya 34 - Kizer 28 - Knight 30 - Mahomes 24 - Peterman 33 - Tribusky 25 - Watson 20 - Webb 25
Talk about confirmation bias... I just watched the Gruden episodes for Peterman, Kaaya and Dobbs late last nite... in that order.
Peterman's maturity impressed, but it was Kaaya that blew me away. Both bested my previous blew-me-away-Gruden-Camp-leader-in-the-clubhouse, Kizer.
Dobbs? Could not help but think "goofy geek" for most of his classroom time... and I don't see NFL players rallying to a goofy-geek. But there was one parting moment on-field, when he offered a life lesson to those who participated in his field session:
"Football... we do it a lot. Some people get burned out. You don't get burned out because of what you do; you get burned out because you forget why you do it. So don't forget your purpose."
Not just what he said, but the way he said it without a hint of "goofy".
The thought also struck me that there are elements in nearly every Gruden segment that are identical, e.g., "What are you listening to?", "R.C.E.", etc., but this is the first time I remember seeing Gruden ask the prospect for any "words of wisdom" at the tail-end huddle-up. I doubt it was the first time he asked. More likely it's the first time the reply was broadcast worthy.
That feels like it should be worth something.
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Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
If those are accurate London, Trubs passes the smartness test. MHO the way a guy talks has little correlation with his intelligence. PS, not surprised Dobbs did well with a college major of Aerospace Engineering.Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
So yeah Tour, we do have a Rocket Scientist in this draft class.
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If those are accurate London, Trubs passes the smartness test. MHO the way a guy talks has little correlation with his intelligence. PS, not surprised Dobbs did well with a college major of Aerospace Engineering.Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
So yeah Tour, we do have a Rocket Scientist in this draft class.
If those are accurate London,
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Not surprisingly Sackosaurus (MG) put up a 31.
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If those are accurate London, Trubs passes the smartness test. MHO the way a guy talks has little correlation with his intelligence. PS, not surprised Dobbs did well with a college major of Aerospace Engineering.Wonderlic scores
Beathard 26
Dobbs 29
Kaaya 34
Kizer 28
Knight 30
Mahomes 24
Peterman 33
Tribusky 25
Watson 20
Webb 25
So yeah Tour, we do have a Rocket Scientist in this draft class.
If those are accurate London, Trubs passes the smartness test. MHO the way a guy talks has little correlation with his intelligence. PS, not surprised Dobbs did well with a college major of Aerospace Engineering.
So yeah Tour, we do have a Rocket Scientist in this draft class.
Glad he did ok.....25 suits me fine and is 5 ticks above 20, which seems to be the cut off/////\\\
But...how he talks isnt really the issue....myself and MANY others think he comes off as kinda stupid....slow at the board....and, yeah, slow at responding to basic questions.....and, with a QB, you hope for and expect a quick sharp mind.....thats all......
Im thinking you will get your wish too.....feeling more and more like the Browns are working on a way to get him......
It worries me(a lot)....but would be a GREAT story if he came here and ended up being the guy to turn it around......
We can all dream........
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I can accept Trubs if they trade up for him, just please no Watson! I don't trust his ability to either stay healthy or avoid being a 20 INT guy on a yearly basis. Trubisky is just a goofball who looks like he was alcohol poisoned in the womb, Watson has some serious concerns for a 1st rounder.
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The biggest bust = the one that we draft in round 1.
The best = all of the 'other' QB's.
('cuz that's how we roll)
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I just read an article where Banner says that in February, Manziel was not even on their draft board. Then he & Lombatami got fired, Ray Farmer got promoted...and Manziel got drafted.
...I wonder which QB Haslam wants THIS time around?
BEING A BROWNS FAN IS A TEST TO SEE HOW MUCH YOU CAN TAKE -
Kiser
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