From nobody to the top of the first round of the draft - Josh Allen

gumby73

@hoorta said:

Hated Kizer from the get-go, thought he sucked at ND, and he didn't disappoint me on the Browns.

and you might be right but the caution light came on when Dorsey thinks Hue needs talent. Offensive talent clearly. Am more disappointed with Hue's use of Kizer with no other choice behind him. Falls on Sashi too. We'll see who GB tries to slide to PS Kizer or his twin from UCLA Hunley

hoorta

@gumby73 said:

and you might be right but the caution light came on when Dorsey thinks Hue needs talent. Offensive talent clearly. Am more disappointed with Hue's use of Kizer with no other choice behind him. Falls on Sashi too. We'll see who GB tries to slide to PS Kizer or his twin from UCLA Hunley

It would be pretty amazing for the Packers to try and slide a second round pick to the practice squad. Or does it mean Hue and whoever drafted him in the second round should have waited until the 4th? It's the same crazy thing I'm seeing with Allen. Josh's one special trait has him being touted around 90 slots too high.

Tim Couch Pulls Out

Speaking of thought experiments, I’ve been floating this one around the office. Apologies if it’s been discussed, I’ve been gone.

This is a year where there’s really no consensus #1 but four or five potential first round guys with either great resumes or abnormal physical tools. What is holding each prospect back from being the consensus #1?

What I get is:

For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.

For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.

For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.

For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.

For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate.

Tour2ma

@jrb12711 said:

Right, but unless I'm mistaken the only one AFTER ben you noted was Bortles (meh) Flacco (who I would argue isn't in this conversation) and cam who I missed. So wentz and cam leads you to two QBs over a decade who fit the "big and burly" mold like ben did out of college. To me that's more than a coincidence and shows a trend of where the nfl has gone the past 10, 12 years.

Not following... what trend are you referring to?

Today Ben's pretty much alone when it comes to a history of defenders hanging off of him as he throws. Even the Camster goes down if he's wrapped up. Culpepper was very much in the Ben mold (or Ben's in his). Wentz (who I overlooked) may be there, but he has more elusiveness that Ben ever did and may be more like a young Dante.

The other QBs with size don't play that big. Actually surprised me to see Rivers is 6'5 and 230-ish. And that's the vein in which I mentioned Flacco and Bortles.

Tour2ma

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

Speaking of thought experiments, I’ve been floating this one around the office. Apologies if it’s been discussed, I’ve been gone.

This is a year where there’s really no consensus #1 but four or five potential first round guys with either great resumes or abnormal physical tools. What is holding each prospect back from being the consensus #1?

What I get is:

For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.

For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.

For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.

For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.

For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate.

Been discussed piecemeal, but not as an organized experiment to my recollection...

Rosen's concussion has been more of a universal thing while personality has been ~32%.
Darnold? At least for me it's general mechanics.
Allen... for me a combo of issues that don't add up to NFL-grade QB.
Baker... height plus a hint of a$$hole.
Jackson... a running QB.

mjp28

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

.......What I get is:

For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.

For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.

For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.

For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.

For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate.

YES, we have a BINGO! Welcome to the 2018 NFL QB Draft, but with all of the teams in the hunt for warm bodies wearing the small uniform numbers they will go quick.....I guess.

Ironically it is a pretty loaded draft outside of that. Too bad the BROWNS have to ~~waste, blow, throw away~~ use a #1 pick on one.

I need a new dead horse, mine has turned into dust.

Canton Mike

@mjp28 said:

YES, we have a BINGO! Welcome to the 2018 NFL QB Draft, but with all of the teams in the hunt for warm bodies wearing the small uniform numbers they will go quick.....I guess.

Ironically it is a pretty loaded draft outside of that. Too bad the BROWNS have to ~~waste, blow, throw away~~ use a #1 pick on one.

I need a new dead horse, mine has turned into dust.

Here ya go!

image.jpeg.60db1acc6aec891e3ebb76093756355f.jpeg

Mike

Flugel

@tour2ma said:

Who had time to coach him up or down or sideways?

Precisely. That's like hearing the WRs with dropsies entering the draft are just going to get coached up in Cleveland all the way up until our next example of "easier said than done" with Corey Coleman.

mjp28

@flugel said:

Precisely. That's like hearing the WRs with dropsies entering the draft are just going to get coached up in Cleveland all the way up until our next example of "easier said than done" with Corey Coleman.

Yes and is there and cure at the professional level when you're wide open looking directly at the quarterback and the ball hits you in the hands with a chance to beat a division rival and possibly avoid a winless season.

I'll give you two seconds to think it over. D'OH!

gumby73

@canton-mike said:

Thanks Mike, I need a Dead Horse..We took Coleman at #15..We took Cam Terd'ing at #19..We got a 5th rounder from KC trading Erving..Is trading Coleman worth biting that kind of bullet? Sign me up maybe if could get any kind 3rd? where do we fold are tents & keep Coleman? (topic alert..Josh Allen what do you think?)

Flugel

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

Speaking of thought experiments, I’ve been floating this one around the office. Apologies if it’s been discussed, I’ve been gone.

This is a year where there’s really no consensus #1 but four or five potential first round guys with either great resumes or abnormal physical tools. What is holding each prospect back from being the consensus #1?

What I get is:

For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.

For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.

For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.

For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.

For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate.

It wasn't that long ego (pre-hindsight 20/20) there was a HUGE "Fail for Cardale" contingent when he was only 3 starts old leading the Buckeyes to a National Championship. Outside of the enormous difference in competition faced, he had a lot of similarities to Josh Allen in the ideal arm strength but accuracy issues. Cardale wrist flicked some of the most beautiful deep passes I've seen without the need for ideal feet/mechanics at least within that short span.

For those with their hearts set on the bionic arm with no need to worry about accuracy kind of QB - we can prolly get Cardale in the very near future at the NFL price equivalent of an Aldi's box of Cheerios if this is all we want again. He's also used to backing up Tyrod Taylor. In the whole scheme of things - is it really any more outrageous than people refusing to bigger picture why Josh Allen has never exceeded mediocrity in high school (as depicted in Major DI scholarship offers) and in college? Now Allen is being pushed all the way up to upper first round consideration/temptation where bad NFL teams are allegedly offering him way easier success? Make sense? It shouldn't. And if he's a project somebody has to wait a year or 2 before there's any comfort starting him - is he really any different than Cardale? Based on what I've seen, coaching up accuracy from someone that has never been accurate is about as easy as seeing a tiger change its stripes.

Like him or laugh at him, the biggest thing I ever saw Mel Kiper get right was "beware the last minute risers that surface especially when the football stops being played."

Flugel

@mjp28 said:

Yes and is there and cure at the professional level when you're wide open looking directly at the quarterback and the ball hits you in the hands with a chance to beat a division rival and possibly avoid a winless season.

I'll give you two seconds to think it over. D'OH!

I didn't need 2 seconds any more than you needed 2 seconds. Unfortunately, the people paying him first round cake are giving him 3 years because 2-3 surviving ego's in our brain trust that chose him instead of Mike Thomas want to prove something they haven't been able to yet. That being the case, I'm not the guy you need to play "Let go my ego" with here.

Zombo

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

Speaking of thought experiments, I’ve been floating this one around the office. Apologies if it’s been discussed, I’ve been gone.

This is a year where there’s really no consensus #1 but four or five potential first round guys with either great resumes or abnormal physical tools. What is holding each prospect back from being the consensus #1?

What I get is:

For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.

For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.

For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.

For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.

For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate.

That's why I like Darnold. Which of those concerns is the easiest to fix at the pro level?

No one is getting taller. No one's personality is going away or is getting a clean concussion chart. Accuracy is one of the hardest improvements to make when you jump to the pro level (I think we can all agree at some level on that ... my first foray in this thread, I assume that is the core of all this discussion).

Darnold needs some tinkering, some ball security improvement ... Ok ... Meet Hue Jackson, Todd Haley, Mike Zampese, Drew Stanton ... watch Tyrod Taylor, one of the best ball control QBs in the league for a season.

Darnold is a gunslinger with a gunslinger mentality ... NFL coaches' job to refine that without losing what you like about him in the first place. He's got a lot of Favre in him. Cool.

Personality: He's a dirt dawg ... teammates will love him.

Health: Pretty clean

Accuracy: 65% at Major program

Size: Tall and thick

In my opinion, he is the cleanest prospect, and, also in my opinion, the Browns are going to call his name #1.

We are breathing a lot of smoke right now, but by the day before the draft it will be written on the walls. Best QB on the board.

Zombo

TexasAg1969

@flugel said:

Like him or laugh at him, the biggest thing I ever saw Mel Kiper get right was "beware the last minute risers that surface especially when the football stops being played."

And ironically enough we need to pay attention that it is Kiper who has pushed Allen to the top. What an f'n joke!

And Mayfield did everything humanly possible to get OK a NC except tackle Sony Michel, who gave them the knockout blows.

Flugel

@gumby73 said:

and you might be right but the caution light came on when Dorsey thinks Hue needs talent. Offensive talent clearly. Am more disappointed with Hue's use of Kizer with no other choice behind him. Falls on Sashi too. We'll see who GB tries to slide to PS Kizer or his twin from UCLA Hunley

Gumby, as much as I agree with some of your points - let's be honest about our overall talent. Also, growing pains of inexperience aren't always bad coaching. For example, Ogbah was starting to become the DE we hoped he'd be prior to injury last year. He was the #1 ranked DE against the run by PFF while he was leading us in sacks when he went on IR. That said, when we looked at who had to replace him and Garrett when they were injured - Nassib and Orchard didn't step up nearly as consistently as we needed them to IMO. Another example of improvement in the 2nd year is Joe Schobert partly from growing pains and partly from coaches placing him where he helped us most. I see examples of success where they were possible. But I also see a team that can least afford injuries to starters due to the FO that hasn't had us stacked from top to bottom to the caliber of our AFC North opponents topping us all the time.

Our WR Corps that only included Josh Gordon for 5 games in the last 3 years SUCKED rat dong. Even the T Pryor that was going onto greener grass elsewhere with better QBing and better Offensive Coaching wasn't making them feel good about adding him when he was healthy there. He actually did better here at least to the extent far less were saying don't let the door hit you in the assss on the way out.

Defensively, our secondary was as piss poor as our WR Corps. I think the 31st ranking at intercepting QBs was an accurate depiction. Jamar Taylor was overpaid as soon as Miami deemed him not worthy of keeping around for upside they weren't seeing. We not only brought him in at a FA raise - he got another raise here like our FO was doing us a favor. In a division that starts WRs like Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, AJ Green during a passing era - it's going to take more than 2 good edge rushers get these beyostards covered.

While McCourtey played extremely well here up until the ankle injury at least according to PFF and my 2 eyes; his age made him worthy of good bye in TN where they drafted a corner in round 1 to upside/upgrade his spot in their lineup. Gregg Williams had him playing better football than finger LeBeau had him playing. That said, he's on 32 year old legs which don't bounce back from injury right away as we saw and perhaps TN experienced prior to cutting him loose. I DID appreciate him playing through injury even though he wasn't nearly the same performer.

I saw evidence of this team playing well where they were capable of it (ie: against the run). I also saw inexperience and growing pains where I expected to. That said, there's no excuse for the length of time our FOs gave a blind eye to the WR Corps and Secondary in a passing era. It's like we've been asking any QB/victim to play well without giving him the tools to do so. It's like telling a landscaper to go cut lawns without their weed wackers and tractors/mowers while expecting productivity and efficiency. It wasn't just wide eye rookies and inexperienced QBs getting sacked/hit holding onto the ball too long. We saw McCown, RG3&Out, and David Whitehurst doing the same stuff. If we ever do get the healthy/steady edge rush we've been aiming for in the draft - teams are going to challenge our secondary and backers with quicker throws. Tour had a pretty good idea with using #4 Denzel Ward at corner. The last time someone had a similar idea in New Orleans they lasso'd themselves a Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Flugel

@texasag1969 said:

And ironically enough we need to pay attention that it is Kiper who has pushed Allen to the top. What an f'n joke!

And Mayfield did everything humanly possible to get OK a NC except tackle Sony Michel, who gave them the knockout blows.

I hear ya! The main reason I've rarely taken Kiper serious in regards to BPA/our biggest needs remains the gigantic conflict of interest in the reality he's a HUGE Ratbird fan. Of course, he wants us taking Josh Allen. Why wouldn't he?

Canton Mike

@gumby73 said:

Thanks Mike, I need a Dead Horse..We took Coleman at #15..We took Cam Terd'ing at #19..We got a 5th rounder from KC trading Erving..Is trading Coleman worth biting that kind of bullet? Sign me up maybe if could get any kind 3rd? where do we fold are tents & keep Coleman? (topic alert..Josh Allen what do you think?)

A 3rd for Coleman? What a wonderful dream THAT is! I have very little faith that he will ever be a keeper.

Mike

Tour2ma

@flugel said:

Like him or laugh at him, the biggest thing I ever saw Mel Kiper get right was "beware the last minute risers that surface especially when the football stops being played."

Which makes it kinda of weird that he's chosen to back Allen...

Zombo said:

That's why I like Darnold. Which of those concerns is the easiest to fix at the pro level?

No one is getting taller.

Darnold needs some tinkering, some ball security improvement ... Ok ... Meet Hue Jackson, Todd Haley, Mike Zampese, Drew Stanton ... watch Tyrod Taylor, one of the best ball control QBs in the league for a season.

Darnold is a gunslinger with a gunslinger mentality ... NFL coaches' job to refine that without losing what you like about him in the first place. He's got a lot of Favre in him. Cool.

Some tinkering and ball security improvement?

Which is easier?

For Tyrod to show an understudy who is fundamentally sound, taller and more accurate than he is to play as a "short" QB in the NFL... or...
Fix a "Darnold"?

And don't get me started on Farve...

Tour2ma

@texasag1969 said:

And ironically enough we need to pay attention that it is Kiper who has pushed Allen to the top. What an f'n joke!

I could have saved a few pixels had I turned the page...

@flugel said:

Tour had a pretty good idea with using #4 Denzel Ward at corner. The last time someone had a similar idea in New Orleans they lasso'd themselves a Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Only "pretty good"?

Flugel

@tour2ma said:

Which makes it kinda of weird that he's chosen to back Allen...

Like I told Aggies, not if we factor in Mel Kiper is a huge Ratbird fan which makes anything he says about our biggest needs/BPA worthy of the deaf ears his conflict of interest deserves. Of course he wants us taking Josh Allen away from their temptations in Baltimore; especially after they already bit on Kyle Boller's 80 yard throw from 1 knee caliber arm strength despite his lack of accuracy.