Possibility for HOF
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Here, perhaps is one way to approach this: By using the PFR Career Average stat.
And you will find something interesting. The QB who played his career primarily Post Merger, i.e. post 1970 who is IN the HOF with the lowest Career Average is: Dan Fouts with a 162.
The QB whose CA is the highest who played his career primarily post 1970 who is NOT in the HOF?
Ken Anderson...with a 161 CA.!!
Ergo...let's make a statement/assumption that any QB who has played his career since 1970 who has a 162 or higher CA should be a virtual lock for the HOF. So that means all of the following QBs will make the HOF based on their CA
Eli Manning 162. Matt Ryan 166. Aaron Rodgers 170. Ben Roethlisberger 185. Phillip Rivers 191. Drew Brees 256. Tom Brady 269. Peyton Manning 271 (only one retired but not yet HOF eligible)
So...who has a chance out of the above group of all NFL starters to reach the "Magic" 162 CA mark?
Right now, the leaders in the clubhouse to make that mark are:
Cam Newton 122
Russell Wilson 114
Joe Flacco 113
Matt Stafford 110
Andy Dalton 91.
No other active QB has reached the 90 mark. Perennial fill-in Ryan Fitzpatrick has an 86 score.
Even without having done this research on the CA.....I would have said that I think that Rodgers/BR/Rivers/Brees/Brady...of the actives were shoe ins. That Ryan could be on his way...as he is still not that old. And that Eli was borderline.
I also would have said that Newton and Wilson...barring serious injury....were well on their way. I would have said that Stafford would be a very borderline case, that Flacco would fall short, save a miraculous turnaround in Denver (noting also that he is now 34...and the likes of Stafford is just 31 and Wilson/Newton are only 30......and that for anyone else that it is just too early/highly speculative.
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To bring this back to Andrew Luck.....who is close to the same age as Newton/Wilson. His PFR CA is a 79. But he has missed huge chunks of 3 years in his career. Luck has started 86 games in his career. Wilson, drafted the same year, has 112 starts....almost 2 more full years of starts.
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Subtle differences:
On the Fouts vs. Anderson debate, and why one is in and the other not. Let's look at their stats
Stat....................Fouts..........................Anderson
Starts.............171................................172
Record...........86-84-1............................91-81
Comp/att......3297/5604...................2654/4475
Comp. %.........58.8...........................59.3
Yards.............43,040.......................32,838
TDs..............254.............................197
TD%.............4.5.............................4.4
INTs.............242.............................160
Int% ...........4.3..............................3.6
Yds/att........7.7...........................7.3
yds/comp....13.1.......................12.4
Yds/game.....237.8..................171
Rating.........80.2.....................81.9
Sacks.........319......................398
yds lost......2304.................2875
GWDs.........23....................10
4th Qtr comebacks....23........21
Super Bowls -0-....................1
CA...............162.................161
I would say that the big difference between them, and the thing that got Fouts in.....was that he played in the more up tempo/pass happy Don Coryell version of the West Coast offense....in virtually the same number of games, Fouts threw the ball 1129 more times....or about 7 more passes per game more. It also seems that Anderson tended to hold the ball more...seeing the sack numbers. (either that or he had a much lousier OL.)
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Just as a side note...and a point of comparison perhaps, the Bleacher report lists the following as the best 10 QBs who are NOT in the HOF:
10. Dave Kreig
9. Don Meredith
8. Jim Hart
7. Bernie Kosar
6. Roman Gabriel
5. John Hadl
4. Phil Simms
3. Boomer Esiason
2. Randall Cunningham
1. Ken Anderson
(notice: Others to compare: 2 time SB winner Jim Plunkett, Tommy Thompson, Testaverde, Bledsoe, Archie Manning, Theisman, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer)
Just as a side note...and a point of comparison perhaps, the Bleacher report lists the following as the best 10 QBs who are NOT in the HOF:
10. Dave Kreig
9. Don Meredith
8. Jim Hart
7. Bernie Kosar
6. Roman Gabriel
5. John Hadl
4. Phil Simms
3. Boomer Esiason
2. Randall Cunningham
1. Ken Anderson
(notice: Others to compare: 2 time SB winner Jim Plunkett, Tommy Thompson, Testaverde, Bledsoe, Archie Manning, Theisman, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer)
MHO for one reason or another none of the above will ever get in.
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To bring this back to Andrew Luck.....who is close to the same age as Newton/Wilson. His PFR CA is a 79. But he has missed huge chunks of 3 years in his career. Luck has started 86 games in his career. Wilson, drafted the same year, has 112 starts....almost 2 more full years of starts.
To bring this back to Andrew Luck.....who is close to the same age as Newton/Wilson. His PFR CA is a 79. But he has missed huge chunks of 3 years in his career. Luck has started 86 games in his career. Wilson, drafted the same year, has 112 starts....almost 2 more full years of starts.
Heard a talking head expert on ESPN say Luck won't make it, injury shortened career. Brady, Brees, Rivers, and Ben all have stats way better than Andy. And they'll all get in before the selection committee gives Luck the time of day.
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The teams they played for also enters into the equations and their lifetime numbers.
For example Bart Starr played on some great teams was he a great quarterback?
The teams they played for also enters into the equations and their lifetime numbers.
For example Bart Starr played on some great teams was he a great quarterback?
Yes...he was. Leadership is part of the equation for a QB...and he is among the greatest leaders of all time. Even if he did not have all the gawdy passing stats that QBs today have...he was the leader for 5 Championship teams.
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I have to retract a bit of information I gave above...I said that no QB that had played their career post merger/1970 who had a CA of 162 or lower was int the HOF. Well, that is an error:
Jim Kelly had a CA of 132, ...4 straight SB appearances got him in.
Troy Aikman had a CA of 122....3 SB titles
Bradshaw was 137.....4 SB titles.
Bob Griese 139. Two SB titles....plus on loss (drafted in 60s, played mostly in 70s),
Staubach...who, while he graduated from college n 1964...did not begin his career until 1969...and played mostly in the 70s.....had a 128. 4 SB appearance...2 wins, 2 losses.
Ken Stabler had a 119....one SB win
But... a lot of QBs who played pre -1970 did get in without real high CAs:
Dawson 144
Unitas 145
Jurgenson 139
Blanda 126
Starr 119
plus the guys mentioned herein above.
Also, note: The CA figure only started around 1960...so, Otto Graham, Sid Luckman, Sammy Baugh etc. were not given CA figures.
The one guy that played most of his career in the 60s with the highest CA that is not in appears to be John Hadl....with a 143.
Here are some CAs of some other NON-HOFer QBs.
Carson Palmer 142
Vinny Testaverde...143
Dave Kreig 138
Randall Cunningham 134
Roman Gabriel 131
John Brodie 129
Steve McNair 126
tony romo 116.
None likely to get in. ONLY McNair even made a SB appearance.
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With the retirement of Andrew Luck, naturally this sort of thing crops up on sports talk, as it did today:
What is the potential that each current starting QB in the NFL has to make the HOF? I will list each name of each starter in the league. Give your opinion on their HOF status. Be it...sure thing....or Never in this universe, or On his way....or looking good...whatever: Going West to East.
1. Russell Wilson
2. Jimmy Garrapolo
3. Derek Carr
4. Phillip Rivers
5. Jared Goff
6. Kyler Murray
7. Joe Flacco
8. Dak Prescott
9. DeShaun Watson
10. Kirk Cousins
11. Patick Mahomes
12. Drew Brees
13. Aaron Rodgers
14. Mitch Trubisky
15. Matt Stafford
16. Andrew Luck/Jacoby Brissquet
17. Baker Mayfield
18. Andy Dalton
19. Marcus Mariota
20. Matt Ryan
21. Nick Foles
22. Jameis Winston
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen
24. Cam Newton
25. Case Keenum
26. Lamar Jackson
27. Ben Roethlisberger
28. Carson Wentz
29. Josh Allen
30. Sam Darnold
31. Eli Manning
32. Tom Brady
With the retirement of Andrew Luck, naturally this sort of thing crops up on sports talk, as it did today:
What is the potential that each current starting QB in the NFL has to make the HOF? I will list each name of each starter in the league. Give your opinion on their HOF status. Be it...sure thing....or Never in this universe, or On his way....or looking good...whatever: Going West to East.
1. Russell Wilson : On his way, has a SB, 2 way threat.Can carry his team
2. Jimmy Garrapolo nope
3. Derek Carr nope, at this point.
4. Phillip Rivers: Think he's a lock, if he makes a SB ..for sure
5. Jared Goff: to soon
6. Kyler Murray: no body of work
7. Joe Flacco nope
8. Dak Prescott to soon, needs to show consistency, maybe Amari will help
9. DeShaun Watson: on his way?
10. Kirk Cousins nope
11. Patick Mahomes: young, if his 1st season is the benchmark, and he puts up anywhere comparables..lock
12. Drew Brees: lock
13. Aaron Rodgers: lock
14. Mitch Trubisky to soon
15. Matt Stafford: will be considered, but needs a good run of seasons
16. Andrew Luck/Jacoby Brissquet: no
17. Baker Mayfield: To soon,
18. Andy Dalton no
19. Marcus Mariota no
20. Matt Ryan yes
21. Nick Foles no
22. Jameis Winston no
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen no
24. Cam Newton if he can get healthy and make another title run...yes
25. Case Keenumno
26. Lamar Jackson will see
27. Ben Roethlisberger lock
28. Carson Wentz health will hold him back
29. Josh Allen no
30. Sam Darnold wait and see
31. Eli Manning as much as it pains me yes
32. Tom Brady lol
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Zombo said:
Eli is not in my Hall of Fame, nor is Ryan.
Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Brady are in.
Wilson is on the path.
Zombo
I don't think there is any debate about Brady, Ben R, Rodgers, Brees. (Peyton obviously as well...not eligible yet) Eli//Ryan//Rivers.....are issues. Eli's two SB wins have him obviously in the conversation. Rivers, Ryan....have numbers....but are numbers enough? Eli has numbers as well. Ryan should have had a SB win....gotta blame that on the ATL defense for giving up a 25 pt. lead. Rivers has one single AFC conf. championship game appearance to his record. ...for what that is worth.
On Eli's numbers, he kinda has those too:
Completions #6 all time (will pass Marino assuming he plays much)
Yards #7 all time
TDs #8
Rating #42
YPG #15
Game winning drives #9
Comeback #11
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Note this on numbers: Eli pretty much has the edge there as well:
Rivers
Completions #8 Eli #6
Yards #8 Eli #7
TDs Rivers 374 Eli 360
YPG Rivers #12 Eli #15
Rating Rivers #8 Eli much lower Eli's Ints an issue
Game winning drives #17 Eli #9
Comebacks #13 Eli #11
Honestly.....aside from the 2 SB wins....I think Eli has the numbers edge all around as well.
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Zombo said:
Eli is not in my Hall of Fame, nor is Ryan.
Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Brady are in.
Wilson is on the path.
Zombo
I agree with Gipper Eli's two Super Bowl wins will be the ticket that gets him in. He's not getting in on the first ballot though.
Of non quarterbacks I thought Chris Carter got stiffed far too long.
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Zombo said:
Eli is not in my Hall of Fame, nor is Ryan.
Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Brady are in.
Wilson is on the path.
Zombo
I agree with Gipper Eli's two Super Bowl wins will be the ticket that gets him in. He's not getting in on the first ballot though.
Of non quarterbacks I thought Chris Carter got stiffed far too long.
I agree with Gipper Eli's two Super Bowl wins will be the ticket that gets him in. He's not getting in on the first ballot though.
Of non quarterbacks I thought Chris Carter got stiffed far too long.
A. Like I said...he even has the numbers mostly over Rivers.
I am of the opinion that Eli/Rivers/BR will now be engaging in a dick swinging contest...to see who blinks first and retires from the league.
B. It took Carter like 12 or 13 years to make it. It took Swann 14. Based on comparative numbers....a guy like Gary Collins should have been chosen over him....however, he played on 4 title teams and make some spectacular catches in the SB. Collins overall was better, imo.
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Zombo said:
Well, if you just are compiling numbers, than Eli should have the edge because he had a year and a half head start ... Let's remember River backed up Brees for two years while Eli became the starter halfway through his rookie year.
But Rivers will more than make that up because Eli is most likely in his final year and Rivers is coming off three straight Pro Bowl Seasons, is getting a new contract, and they haven't even bothered drafting his heir yet.
But if you want to know who has been the more effective QB, then these are the numbers to look at:
Rivers 64.5 Comp%, 7.7 y/a, 5.3 TD %, 2.5% Int, 95.6 Rating
Eli 60.3 Comp%, 7.0 y/a, 4.5 TD %, 3.0% Int 84.1 Rating
Yards per Game, Rivers 257-241.
So Rivers is more accurate, for more average yards, with a higher percentage of TDs and a lower percentage of INTs
What is Eli better at again?
Winning Championships....playing for Championships.
8 Pro Bowls to 4 Pro Bowls ... I could go on.
Rivers is 5th among Active QBs in QB rating, and Eli is 22nd.
That, I believe is strictly based on Eli throwing more Ints. Of course, that is a factor, but that didn't hurt Brett Favre....all time Int. leader or Fouts, or Marino or Unitas or Tarkenton...or Peyton...who have all thrown for more career Ints for Eli.
Yes, Eli will eventually get in the HOF because of the two Super Bowls, but Rivers is the better QB, which is why he makes MY HOF and Eli doesn't.
I would put them both in...but I would put Eli in first.
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If I was asked by the HOF commitee (spellcheck?), I would vote for Rivers and leave Eli behind. The only thing Eli is the best at is at staying on the field. Almost never misses a game due to injury and that's remarkable.
He is lucky to have had good defenses for both SB runs and to play for a NY team that gets way more media attention than it deserves.
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If I was asked by the HOF commitee (spellcheck?), I would vote for Rivers and leave Eli behind. The only thing Eli is the best at is at staying on the field. Almost never misses a game due to injury and that's remarkable.
He is lucky to have had good defenses for both SB runs and to play for a NY team that gets way more media attention than it deserves.
If I was asked by the HOF commitee (spellcheck?), I would vote for Rivers and leave Eli behind. The only thing Eli is the best at is at staying on the field. Almost never misses a game due to injury and that's remarkable.
There are a lot of people in the HOF for just that reason. Not everyone who lasts gets in (see: Vinny)....but a lot are in for that reason.
He is lucky to have had good defenses for both SB runs and to play for a NY team that gets way more media attention than it deserves.
Every winning SB team has good defenses. And winning championships gets you media attention, be you in NYC or Cleveland. (LeBron had no trouble getting media attention when he was here.)
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Zombo said:
As I pointed out it was all four ingredients that go into the passer rating: Comp%, y/a, TD% and INT%
And they are from the same draft class, so need to bring up the guys from the 70's and 80's with higher interception percentages. Peyton has a lower intereception % than Eli as well, Rivers is closer statistically to Peyton than Eli is.
Zombo
Other than that Int. %....I saw the statistical differences as minimal.
But I disagree somewhat with the 80s guys not being able to be compared. The BIG change in QB stats came about in 1978 as a result of the bump and run rule changes. And the not hitting QB changes that came in then too. (plus many later). So, I think you can compare him to Favre and Marino....but no, not Bradshaw/Unitas. Good QBs back then could have a 1:1 TD to Int. ratio. And lower pass completions pct. yes. Also note that interceptions were more frequent. Paul Krause leading all in Ints....he played in the 60s. Thom Darden, Browns leader, in the 70s.
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Zombo said:
I dont know why you are hung up on interceptions, Rivers advantage is significant, but it is probably the least of their statistical differences.
Again ...
Rivers 64.5 Comp%, 7.7 y/a, 5.3 TD %, 2.5% Int, 95.6 Rating
Eli 60.3 Comp%, 7.0 y/a, 4.5 TD %, 3.0% Int 84.1 Rating
Yards per Game, Rivers 257-241.
Eli’s advantage is significant two championships to zero. More than makes up for the minor statistical differences. And is it his fault Rivers wasn’t considered good enough to start for his team as a rookie
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Zombo said:
It's a team sport.
And the differences aren't minor.
Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl, but it doesn't make him as good as Phillip Rivers, it just doesn't.
Eli is basically Joe Flacco with two rings instead of one. His longevity, durability and two amazing postseason runs will get him in the Hall. But he's not as good a QB as Rivers.
Z
Winning still counts. Someone here claimed that Bart Starr wasn’t all that good of a quarterback because his numbers weren’t quite as good. Does anyone want to contend that Bart Starr was not as good a quarterback is Philip Rivers?
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1. Russell Wilson--------------------------------yes
2. Jimmy Garrapolo---------------------------no
3. Derek Carr-------------------------------------no
4. Phillip Rivers--------------------------------yes
5. Jared Goff-----------------------------------yes
6. Kyler Murray--------------------------------total bust
7. Joe Flacco----------------------------------no
8. Dak Prescott------------------------------definite maybe
9. DeShaun Watson----------------------no
10. Kirk Cousins---------------------------no
11. Patick Mahomes--------------------yes
12. Drew Brees-----------------------------tie for first yes with Brady
13. Aaron Rodgers-----------------------yes
14. Mitch Trubisky-----------------------no
15. Matt Stafford-------------------------no
16. Andrew Luck/Jacoby Brissquet-no
17. Baker Mayfield----------------------turn the Browns into yearly playoff contenders would do the trick
18. Andy Dalton---------------------------LOLOLOLOL
19. Marcus Mariota----------------------ditto
20. Matt Ryan-------------------------------only a SB win would do it
21. Nick Foles--------------------------------no
22. Jameis Winston-----------------------nope
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen--ditto
24. Cam Newton-----------------------------no
25. Case Keenum---------------------------lol
26. Lamar Jackson-------------------------no
27. Ben Roethlisberger--------------------yes
28. Carson Wentz----------------------------no
29. Josh Allen---------------------------------tied for LOLOLOLOL with Dalton
30. Sam Darnold------------------------------just maybe-see Baker Mayfield
31. Eli Manning--------------------------------big brother wins the lobby effect
32. Tom Brady---------------------------------see Brees
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