BROWNS ODDS MAKING PLAYOFFS with *6-9 start (*revised 12-23) at 0.00%.....game over..
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THE BROWNS ODDS OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS WITH THE 1-2 START FWIW, I just ran across this and thought I would give it a try and see what happens. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
It appears to be FREE to sign up and get more detailed information. *** NOTE:. THIS WILL BE UPDATED AS THE SEASON MOVES ALONG. ***
Innovative StatisticsFootball Outsiders exclusive statisticsDVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
PagePick PositionOverall Team EfficiencyTeam OffenseTeam DefenseSpecial TeamsQuarterbacksRunning BacksTight EndsWide ReceiversOffensive LineDefensive LineNFL Main Drive StatsNFL Offensive Drive StatsNFL Defensive Drive StatsNFL Pace/Time StatsNFL Playoff OddsNFL Snap CountsNCAA: FEI Ratings, DefenseNCAA: FEI Ratings, OffenseNCAA: FEI Ratings, OverallNCAA: FEI Ratings, Special TeamsNCAA: S&P Ratings, DefenseNCAA: S&P Ratings, OffenseNCAA: S&P Ratings, OverallNCAA: F/+ Combined RatingsNCAA: Defensive LineNCAA: Offensive LineNCAA: FEI Field PositionYearPick Year2018Revised as of 09/24/19, through Week 3.
Compiled by Mike Harris
The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.
- Carolina's DAVE is penalized 3.3% for backup quarterback Kyle Allen. Cam Newton returns by in Week 8 in 20% of simulations, increasing 20% each week until he is back by Week 12 in all simulations.
- Jacksonville's DAVE is no longer penalized for backup quarterback Gardner Minshew.
- New Orleans' DAVE is penalized 13.6% for backup quarterback Teddy Twatwater. Drew Brees returns in Week 10 in 60% of simulations, Week 11 in 20% of simulations, and Week 12 in the rest of the simulations.
- New York Giants' DAVE accounts for the replacement of Eli Manning with Daniel Jones.
- New York Jets' DAVE is penalized 18.0% for third-string quarterback Luke Falk. Sam Darnold returns in Week 5 in 60% of simulations and Week 6 in all other simulations.
- Pittsburgh's DAVE accounts for the replacement of Ben Roethlisberger with Mason Rudolph.
(The AFCN results, see link for more.)
AFC North
Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 2-1 16.4% 9.9 7.2% 14.6% 23.3% 24.8% 3.4% 4.4% 69.9% 21.8% 7.8% 77.6% -1.8% CLE 1-2 -0.1% 7.8 0.8% 2.8% 6.5% 11.5% 5.0% 7.5% 21.6% 3.6% 12.5% 34.1% -3.9% PIT 0-3 -14.0% 5.9 0.1% 0.5% 1.6% 3.8% 1.6% 3.1% 5.9% 0.6% 4.6% 10.6% -3.9% CIN 0-3 -22.5% 5.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 1.9% 0.5% 1.4% 2.6% 0.2% 2.0% 4.5% -1.0% -
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Well this analytics approach seems to be working. They now have a better chance of winning the division (43.4%) and making the playoffs (56.1%) than Baltimore.
What a difference a big win makes!
AFC North....after the win at Baltimore
Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9% 53.1% -24.5% CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% 43.4% 8.7% 12.7% 56.1% 21.9% PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9% 15.3% CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3% GO BUCKEYES, BROWNS, INDIANS, CAVS, YSU, NAVY and yes I like ND! -
Well this analytics approach seems to be working. They now have a better chance of winning the division (43.4%) and making the playoffs (56.1%) than Baltimore.
What a difference a big win makes!
AFC North....after the win at Baltimore
Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9% 53.1% -24.5% CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% 43.4% 8.7% 12.7% 56.1% 21.9% PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9% 15.3% CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3% Well this analytics approach seems to be working. They now have a better chance of winning the division (43.4%) and making the playoffs (56.1%) than Baltimore.
What a difference a big win makes!
AFC North....after the win at Baltimore
Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9% 53.1% -24.5% CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% 43.4% 8.7% 12.7% 56.1% 21.9% PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9% 15.3% CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3% I believe those number mean absofuckinglutely nothing.
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And a quick look at the playoffs after WEEK 4. Playoffs? Playoffs? Yeah playoffs!
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0 NE. <--- nobody goes 16-0 73.2% 49.3% 32.1% 2.8% KC 53.2% 25.4% 14.5% 0.6% DAL 33.3% 19.1% 8.8% 0.0% SF 30.2% 16.6% 7.3% 0.1% LAR 20.6% 10.7% 4.6% 0.0% NO 24.0% 11.1% 4.2% 0.0% PHI 15.4% 7.5% 3.0% 0.0% SEA 14.0% 7.1% 2.9% 0.0% CHI 13.8% 6.5% 2.7% 0.0% GB 14.1% 6.5% 2.6% 0.0% BAL 13.1% 5.1% 2.5% 0.0% DET 13.4% 6.1% 2.4% 0.0% LAC 11.0% 4.2% 2.0% 0.0% CLE. <---- still below BAL? 11.4% 3.9% 1.8% 0.0% TEN 9.2% 3.2% 1.6% 0.0% HOU 9.7% 3.3% 1.4% 0.0% CAR 6.5% 2.9% 1.1% 0.0% MIN 5.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0% TB 5.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0% BUF 5.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% JAX 4.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% PIT. <---. 
3.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% OAK 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% IND 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% ATL 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% NYG 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% MOD Edit: Perusing the list the Bungles and 'Fins apparently have no chance.....
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Well this analytics approach seems to be working. They now have a better chance of winning the division (43.4%) and making the playoffs (56.1%) than Baltimore.
What a difference a big win makes!
AFC North....after the win at Baltimore
Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9% 53.1% -24.5% CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% 43.4% 8.7% 12.7% 56.1% 21.9% PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9% 15.3% CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3% I believe those number mean absofuckinglutely nothing.
I believe those number mean absofuckinglutely nothing.
If you mean those numbers then skip all analytics because that's what they do.
GO BUCKEYES, BROWNS, INDIANS, CAVS, YSU, NAVY and yes I like ND! -
And a favorite subject around here so who will be on the clock? Probably not the Cleveland Browns.
ON THE CLOCK
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick MIA 63.3% 96.5% CIN 14.6% 73.3% WAS 7.3% 60.7% DEN 4.8% 53.1% ARI 5.1% 52.4% NYJ 2.1% 28.9% ATL 0.6% 20.4% NYG 0.5% 16.3% PIT 0.4% 14.0% OAK 0.3% 13.9% IND 0.3% 12.5% JAX 0.2% 8.5% TB 0.1% 6.9% CAR 0.1% 6.1% MIN 0.1% 5.6% LAC 0.0% 4.3% HOU 0.0% 4.2% TEN 0.1% 4.1% CLE <--- not even a top 5 pick? 0.1% 3.6% BAL 0.0% 2.6% BUF 0.0% 2.4% DET 0.0% 2.3% PHI 0.0% 2.1% GB 0.0% 1.3% SEA 0.0% 1.2% CHI 0.0% 1.2% LAR 0.0% 0.5% NO 0.0% 0.4% SF 0.0% 0.4% DAL 0.0% 0.3% -
And one more I like this especially the children of Brady and hell freezes over.
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.
Name Teams Chance Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special SF vs NE 8.0% GOAT Quarterback Battle NO vs NE 5.5% Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch LAR vs NE 5.2% Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 3.8% Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 3.5% Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 3.3% Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 3.1% Matt Patricia Reunion Special DET vs NE 3.0% Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 2.8% Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 2.8% Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 1.8% Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 1.7% Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 1.6% Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 1.4% AAFC Memorial Bowl SF vs CLE 0.7% Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.6% Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.6% Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 0.5% Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 0.4% Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch LAR vs TEN 0.4% Return of the Rams LAR vs CLE 0.4% Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 0.4% Earl Thomas Reunion Special SEA vs BAL 0.3% Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.3% Darren Sproles Reunion Special PHI vs LAC 0.3% Gulf Coast Challenge NO vs HOU 0.3% Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 0.3% Matt LaFleur Reunion Special GB vs TEN 0.3% Hell Freezes Over DET vs CLE 0.2% Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2% Children of Brady SF vs IND 0.1% Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.1% Bay Area Bowl SF vs OAK 0.1% Nick Foles Reunion Special PHI vs JAX 0.1% Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.1% Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 0.1% Super Bowl XLI Rematch CHI vs IND 0.1% Khalil Mack Reunion Special CHI vs OAK 0.1% Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.1% Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.1% 2015 Draft Showdown TB vs TEN 0.1% Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.1% Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.1% -
I believe those number mean absofuckinglutely nothing.
If you mean those numbers then skip all analytics because that's what they do.
If you mean those numbers then skip all analytics because that's what they do.
What I mean is that it is silly.
I could have told before a game was played that the Patriots had a 99.9% chance of winning that division. And I think my number is more valid that what this has put out. I am saying that I do not believe there is analytics at all involved.....just guesswork...possibly no better than my own.
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If you mean those numbers then skip all analytics because that's what they do.
What I mean is that it is silly.
I could have told before a game was played that the Patriots had a 99.9% chance of winning that division. And I think my number is more valid that what this has put out. I am saying that I do not believe there is analytics at all involved.....just guesswork...possibly no better than my own.
What I mean is that it is silly.
I could have told before a game was played that the Patriots had a 99.9% chance of winning that division. And I think my number is more valid that what this has put out. I am saying that I do not believe there is analytics at all involved.....just guesswork...possibly no better than my own.
Not guesswork that is plugging in anything you want these are based on analytical data nothing is made up or guessed. It is all explained at the site.
analytics noun: science of logical analysis
Not guesswork the science of guessers.
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What I mean is that it is silly.
I could have told before a game was played that the Patriots had a 99.9% chance of winning that division. And I think my number is more valid that what this has put out. I am saying that I do not believe there is analytics at all involved.....just guesswork...possibly no better than my own.
Not guesswork that is plugging in anything you want these are based on analytical data nothing is made up or guessed. It is all explained at the site.
analytics noun: science of logical analysis
Not guesswork the science of guessers.
Not guesswork that is plugging in anything you want these are based on analytical data nothing is made up or guessed. It is all explained at the site.
analytics noun: science of logical analysis
Not guesswork the science of guessers.
That may be OK in a lot of areas. But not here. My guesses probably are just as valid.
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Not guesswork that is plugging in anything you want these are based on analytical data nothing is made up or guessed. It is all explained at the site.
analytics noun: science of logical analysis
Not guesswork the science of guessers.
That may be OK in a lot of areas. But not here. My guesses probably are just as valid.
That may be OK in a lot of areas. But not here. My guesses probably are just as valid.
Like what? Guess my weight at a carnival?
And yes Gip I'm sure you're a good guesser.
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Wow did this turn around it was BAL 1/3 and CLE 3/1 before the last game.....CLE 3/1 might have been a nice bet.
Tuesday 10/1. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures
ODDS TO WIN 2019-20 AFC NORTH (12/29/19)Team Odds Cleveland Browns 6/5 Baltimore Ravens 6/5 Pittsburgh Steelers 17/4 Cincinnati Bengals 100/1 -
Well this analytics approach seems to be working. They now have a better chance of winning the division (43.4%) and making the playoffs (56.1%) than Baltimore.
What a difference a big win makes!
AFC North....after the win at Baltimore
Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9% 53.1% -24.5% CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% 43.4% 8.7% 12.7% 56.1% 21.9% PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9% 15.3% CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3% I believe those number mean absofuckinglutely nothing.
I believe those number mean absofuckinglutely nothing.
Agree with Gip here. If you want, I can whip up a few scripts that crunch some numbers based on some arguably meaningful input and output some seemingly relevant data. But real world, I can almost guarantee that these numbers mean squat.... Why? Because you're trusting an algorithm that you didn't write, code for which you haven't seen the source, and which has not been proven to be any better at predicting the future than pulling names out of a hat.
I could have registered the domain footballoutsiders.com for all you know, setup a LAMP stack, and be making money off all the ad's you mistakenly click on while you're there. I Didn't, but my point is, I believe those numbers mean absofuckinglutely nothing as well.
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Well this analytics approach seems to be working. They now have a better chance of winning the division (43.4%) and making the playoffs (56.1%) than Baltimore.
What a difference a big win makes!
AFC North....after the win at Baltimore
Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9% 53.1% -24.5% CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% 43.4% 8.7% 12.7% 56.1% 21.9% PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9% 15.3% CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3% Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9% 53.1% -24.5% CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% 43.4% 8.7% 12.7% 56.1% 21.9% PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9% 15.3% CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3% Dammit, mpj.... WE ARE the 1st place team... parley vous tiebreaker?
Like what? Guess my weight at a carnival?
And yes Gip I'm sure you're a good guesser.
Nah... overtime Gip guesses every possible outcome to assure he's always right... and individually they are all couched in provisos. There are abundant examples from here to Trubisky and back.
And you will never see Gip compete in any objective contests... from Dutch's Questions to Yahoo Pick'em to Z's TWitAFCN to you name it... cause that'd puncture his lil ego balloon in public.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9% 53.1% -24.5% CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% 43.4% 8.7% 12.7% 56.1% 21.9% PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9% 15.3% CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3% Dammit, mpj.... WE ARE the 1st place team... parley vous tiebreaker?
Like what? Guess my weight at a carnival?
And yes Gip I'm sure you're a good guesser.
Nah... overtime Gip guesses every possible outcome to assure he's always right... and individually they are all couched in provisos. There are abundant examples from here to Trubisky and back.
And you will never see Gip compete in any objective contests... from Dutch's Questions to Yahoo Pick'em to Z's TWitAFCN to you name it... cause that'd puncture his lil ego balloon in public.
Dammit, mpj.... WE ARE the 1st place team... parley vous tiebreaker?
Nah... overtime Ghoolie guessed every possible outcome to assure he's always right... and individually they are all couched in provisos. There are abundant examples from here to Trubisky and back.
And you will never see Gip compete in any objective contests... from Dutch's Questions to Yahoo Pick'em to Z's TWitAFCN to you name it... cause that'd puncture his lil ego balloon in public.
FIFY, but you're mostly right about Gipper too....
PS- I was also on the Trubisky Train, but it's looking more and more like the Bears gave up way to much to get him- and he should have been drafted lower. Saved the Browns from making a big mistake? Very possibly.
Now about that Ghoolie feller and his love of Paxton Lynch and hate for Joe Thomas. I'd feel a lot better about our playoff SB chances if Joe was still playing. A 80% Joe would still be better than anything we currently have.
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