BROWNS ODDS MAKING PLAYOFFS with *6-9 start (*revised 12-23) at 0.00%.....game over..

[mjp28]

Oh brother you've got that right.  Some people are so afraid of failing that they will never try anything.   

[hoorta]

@tour2ma said:

Dammit, mpj.... WE ARE the 1st place team... parley vous tiebreaker?

Nah... overtime Ghoolie  guessed every possible outcome to assure he's always right... and individually they are all couched in provisos. There are abundant examples from here to Trubisky and back.

And you will never see Gip compete in any objective contests... from Dutch's Questions to Yahoo Pick'em to Z's TWitAFCN to you name it... cause that'd puncture his lil ego balloon in public.

FIFY, but you're mostly right about Gipper too.... 

PS- I was also on the Trubisky Train, but it's looking more and more like the Bears gave up way to much to get him- and he should have been drafted lower. Saved the Browns from making a big mistake? Very possibly.  

Now about that Ghoolie feller and his love of Paxton Lynch and hate for Joe Thomas. I'd feel a lot better about our playoff SB chances if Joe was still playing. A 80% Joe would still be better than anything we currently have. 

[mjp28]

Yeah those two were a lot alike I particularly liked the "Tom Brady is washed up" every year......but he kept winning NFL MVPs and Superbowls.  

Oh well, keeps it interesting around here..... not counting all of the assinine comment of course.

[TexasAg1969]

@mjp28 said:

Yeah those two were a lot alike I particularly liked the "Tom Brady is washed up" every year......but he kept winning NFL MVPs and Superbowls.  

Oh well, keeps it interesting around here..... not counting all of the assinine comment of course.

Starts with a "G", has two syllables.........................................hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.??

[mjp28]

@texasag1969 said:

Starts with a "G", has two syllables.........................................hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.??

Rhymes with fool?

[Tour2ma]

True... a lot I said applied to Ghoulie as well... but he went beyond... he was true provocateur... posted outrageous stuff just to get a reaction... and attention.

I've always given Gipper credit for his social efforts with his trivia threads, weekly surveys, etc... even when he often turned the latter turned into pissin' contests over opinions... and I still give him credit. I even participated in those threads long after I placed him on "Ignore"... a list he was on and off of a few times. However, since I put him on the list for good, I no longer do. It just seemed hypocritical to participate any longer.

But that's me... I do encourage others to participate in those threads... if you can still "see" them.

[The Gipper]

@tour2ma said:

Dammit, mpj.... WE ARE the 1st place team... parley vous tiebreaker?

Nah... overtime Gip guesses every possible outcome to assure he's always right... and individually they are all couched in provisos. There are abundant examples from here to Trubisky and back.

Well...liars lie, and you lie. But yea, I made various predictions about the potential future of a few players...but I don't know anything about provisos.  Sometimes I am right and sometimes I am wrong.  Yes, I said Trubisky had the talent to become a Top Ten draft pick....and where was he drafted?  I also said that Rudolph could prove to up there with the likes of the other QBs that were taken in round one that year.  And yes, I now have a proviso on that one:  my proviso is that I hope I am dead wrong now that he was taken by the Steelers.  I am sure that I have been wrong...and right about other players as well.   I mean, beyond that....please tell us what other abundant examples exist that support your bogus claim about these so called provisos....since apparently you are keeping score.

And you will never see Gip compete in any objective contests... from Dutch's Questions to Yahoo Pick'em to Z's TWitAFCN to you name it... cause that'd puncture his lil ego balloon in public.

Except, of course, you are a lying gutless punk again.  I have participated in Dutch's questions every year, including this year.  And I did participate in Pickem one time...and I won going away....so I retired undefeated.  But actually, doing pickem just bores me, so I don't do it.  Why should I do something that bores me?  I have on rare occasion made picks on Z's thread...but as I said, it bores me.  And who besides you and Z makes picks on there regularly?  So...is every other patron/regular on this board who does not make picks also included in your criticism?  I have said I would like to perhaps participate in Survivor, but have not done so because I would likely miss weeks...and a missed week is as strike against in that game, if I am correct.    No, I suspect one of the reasons that you apparently miss a lot of what goes on is because you have shown your gutlessness by putting me on ignore.   But I don't put you on ignore.  Occasionally, you make interesting points or provide interesting information.  Much of the rest of the time your posts are a great cure for insomnia.

Edit:  by the way, I copied  my post on Dutch's thread...since you seem so concerned about it.  Maybe you would have seen it had you not had your head where the sun don't shine:

1. Browns record?   10-6

2. Bengals record?  6-10

3. Ravens record? 8-8

4. Steelers record? 9-7 

5. How many points do the Browns score? How many points do they allow?   444 vs.  222

6. How many yards, touchdowns and interceptions does Baker Mayfield throw for? 4444, 44,  14

7. Who leads the Browns in receptions? How many receptions does he have?  OBJ   88

8. Who leads the Browns in reception yards? How many yards does he have?  OBJ 1188

9. Who leads the Browns in reception touchdowns? How many touchdowns does he have?  OBJ  18

10. How many rushing yards and rushing touchdowns does Nick Chubb have? 1444,  18

11. How many rushing yards and rushing touchdowns does Kareem Hunt have? 444,  4

12. How many sacks does Myles Garrett have? 22

13. Browns record vs AFC North? 4-2

14. What two teams play in the Super Bowl? Who wins? 

Predictions already made...see this, which is mostly a whole different set of predictions:

/topic/54230

[The Gipper]

@hoorta said:

FIFY, but you're mostly right about Gipper too.... 

About what?  Putting "provisos" on things?  Again, I have no clue what that is supposed to mean or what you are all talking about. You and I have had disagreements...differences of opinions...on some things.  I mean is "your opinion differs from mine"  your  definition of a "proviso"?   If not...what is, and show me these examples.  I don't recall having any provisos when we were debating the whole  "titles to be claimed" argument. In fact...you were the one with provisos (not counting because its not a title in the Super Bowl era, not counting because it was in Akron or Canton, not Cleveland.     (and since we are on that topic....Santa Clara is as far away from San Francisco as Canton is from Cleveland!!)   Again, WTF is a "proviso".  

PS- I was also on the Trubisky Train, but it's looking more and more like the Bears gave up way to much to get him- and he should have been drafted lower. Saved the Browns from making a big mistake? Very possibly.  

Now about that Ghoolie feller and his love of Paxton Lynch and hate for Joe Thomas. I'd feel a lot better about our playoff SB chances if Joe was still playing. A 80% Joe would still be better than anything we currently have. 

Water over the bridge at this point.

[The Gipper]

@tour2ma said:

True... a lot I said applied to Ghoulie as well... but he went beyond... he was true provocateur... posted outrageous stuff just to get a reaction... and attention.

I've always given Gipper credit for his social efforts with his trivia threads, weekly surveys, etc... even when he often turned the latter turned into pissin' contests over opinions... and I still give him credit. I even participated in those threads long after I placed him on "Ignore"... a list he was on and off of a few times. However, since I put him on the list for good, I no longer do. It just seemed hypocritical to participate any longer.

But that's me... I do encourage others to participate in those threads... if you can still "see" them.

Well....at least you have admitted that you are gutless.  And noting that you are willing to criticize from a position of ignorance when you haven't even seen a post.

And question:  when did this forum, renown for its no holds barred approach, become a Kumbaya campfire circle?  

I didn't get the memo, I don't think.  

So, are the ground rules that we can no longer get into debates over opinions?   Even "pissing contests"?  (and no, I have never posted stuff merely to be a provocateur....I don't think.... with the exception of like "Stupid Steeler Fan"  threads.  OK, I admit to stirring up shit with those).

[hoorta]

@the-gipper said:

FIFY, but you're mostly right about Gipper too.... 

About what?  Putting "provisos" on things?  Again, I have no clue what that is supposed to mean or what you are all talking about. You and I have had disagreements...differences of opinions...on some things.  I mean is "your opinion differs from mine"  your  definition of a "proviso"?   If not...what is, and show me these examples.  I don't recall having any provisos when we were debating the whole  "titles to be claimed" argument. In fact...you were the one with provisos (not counting because its not a title in the Super Bowl era, not counting because it was in Akron or Canton, not Cleveland.     (and since we are on that topic....Santa Clara is as far away from San Francisco as Canton is from Cleveland!!)   Again, WTF is a "proviso".  

PS- I was also on the Trubisky Train, but it's looking more and more like the Bears gave up way to much to get him- and he should have been drafted lower. Saved the Browns from making a big mistake? Very possibly.  

Now about that Ghoolie feller and his love of Paxton Lynch and hate for Joe Thomas. I'd feel a lot better about our playoff SB chances if Joe was still playing. A 80% Joe would still be better than anything we currently have. 

Water over the bridge at this point.

1) Don't take stuff so personal

2) Some things it's OK to go to great lengths to "prove" you're right. Most of the time it's downright annoying, and no one besides you cares. 

[The Gipper]

@hoorta said:

1) Don't take stuff so personal

I don't know that I am taking it personal.  In this case I was just trying to figure out what tiny Tim meant by saying I put "provisos" on things. I was just asking for clarification....because I am admittedly clueless there.

2) Some things it's OK to go to great lengths to "prove" you're right. Most of the time it's downright annoying, and no one besides you cares. 

I don't go to many lengths to prove any facts.  Most of those are easily attainable, and irrefutable.  I just have to cut and paste, or link them.  Now, on matters of opinion...I likely do go to some lengths to support my contentions.  I mean, I have been to law school. That is what we are trained to do.   We are also trained to point out and exploit inconsistencies in an opponents arguments.  

Let's again take the friendly debate over the "regional title count".  Your contention (I believe...correct me if I am wrong) is that the Akron and Canton titles should not be included with those won by teams in Cleveland. But yet, the inconsistency in your argument would be that  you would, perhaps, include a 49er title won in Santa Clara as a San Francisco title. Or those won in New Jersey in with New York City. Etc. Regional teams....Tennesse/Minnesota/New England etc.    So, I don't know...maybe pointing out inconsistencies in a counterargument is annoying. So be it.    And one can always cop out of an argument by saying I don't care. (but, in my profession...that attitude would not have gone over well with the client...nor with the court). Nevertheless, I can try that in the future.  See how it goes.

[Tour2ma]

Since I can see quotes... even of the Ignored...

Gip,

While provisos creep into many of your "opinions" as well... "Fair to say?"... they are always a part of your assessments and predictions, e.g. "I like so and so. He could end up being the best QB in the draft." That's an example we see every year... and it's a feature of every player "evaluation" you make. It's your substitute for knowledge of how the game is played and putting in the time to actually have a basis for your "assessment".

[The Gipper]

@tour2ma said:

Since I can see quotes... even of the Ignored...

Gip,

While provisos creep into many of your "opinions" as well... "Fair to say?"... they are always a part of your assessments and predictions, e.g. "I like so and so. He could end up being the best QB in the draft." That's an example we see every year... and it's a feature of every player "evaluation" you make. It's your substitute for knowledge of how the game is played and putting in the time to actually have a basis for your "assessment".

Well, if you think that is the case....every opinion, every evaluation, nearly every comment ever made on here that is not a discernible statement of fact carries with it a proviso.....including every single opinion you have ever stated.  You have no better clue how a particular player may ultimately end up than I do even if you perhaps have more Xs and Os knowledge than I do.  I just don't track your opinions on such matters as you apparently track mine. 

And my knowledge of how the game is played is sufficient to have an opinion on some things.  And I am right on many of my opinions, and I am wrong on some....just like you.  

But, following a particular directive,  you see.....I don't care if you are right or wrong on your opinions.  You can be right...or you can be wrong. 

Ca ne fait rien

Fair to say? 

[mjp28]

BROWNS CHANCES TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AFTER GAME 5 AT 2-3 DROP, NATURALLY BUT STILL A LONG WAY TO GO.

As you might imagine the BROWNS chances to make the playoffs took a dip and Baltimore jumped back up on the 3-2 vs 2-3 records -but- it's early and the BROWNS do have the head to head win over the blackbirds.

However the game vs Seattle now becomes a must win before the week 7 bye week and the big 4:25 pm week 8 matchup with New England!

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	3-2	10.8%	9.3	3.1%	12.4%	21.5%	24.7%	3.3%	4.9%	61.7%	15.5%	8.2%	69.9%	16.8%
CLE	2-3	-7.5%	7.5	0.4%	2.9%	6.9%	13.1%	3.4%	5.8%	23.3%	3.3%	9.1%	32.4%	-23.7%
PIT	1-4	-1.2%	7.1	0.0%	1.6%	4.5%	8.1%	3.3%	6.0%	14.2%	1.6%	9.4%	23.6%	-2.4%
CIN	0-5	-26.6%	3.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%	0.3%	0.8%	0.0%	0.3%	1.2%	-0.1

[mjp28]

And let's look ahead a bit, not an easy schedule for the BROWNS right now.......

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

• Reaching the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Super Bowl

Team	Conf App	Conf Win	SB Win	16-0
1. NE	78.7%	57.7%	37.3%	5.7% <--- our week 8 opponent
2. SF	49.0%	31.1%	15.4%	1.0%
KC	43.1%	17.7%	9.2%	0.0%
NO	31.7%	14.6%	5.6%	0.0%
PHI	23.1%	11.6%	5.1%	0.0%
6. BAL	20.8%	7.6%	3.8%	0.0% <--- they beat them!
GB	19.9%	9.1%	3.5%	0.0%
8. SEA	15.6%	7.7%	3.2%	0.0% <--- our next opponent
DAL	16.5%	7.6%	3.2%	0.0%
HOU	15.8%	5.5%	2.5%	0.0%
DET	10.5%	4.4%	1.6%	0.0%
LAR	8.4%	4.0%	1.6%	0.0%
MIN	9.1%	3.9%	1.6%	0.0%
CHI	7.0%	2.8%	1.0%	0.0%
BUF	6.8%	2.3%	0.9%	0.0%
CAR	5.9%	2.3%	0.7%	0.0%
OAK	6.3%	1.6%	0.6%	0.0%
LAC	4.8%	1.5%	0.6%	0.0%
IND	6.6%	1.6%	0.6%	0.0%
JAX	5.5%	1.4%	0.5%	0.0%
21. CLE	4.5%	1.1%	0.4%	0.0% <--- just above pit
PIT	3.3%	0.9%	0.3%	0.0%
TEN	3.0%	0.8%	0.3%	0.0%
TB	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

[mjp28]

And to show how skewed things can be plus how much your division's strengths and weaknesses play into your record just look.  For example NE has a 99% chance of making the playoffs after WEEK 5!    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

AFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
NE	5-0	37.9%	13.4	77.9%	12.8%	3.4%	1.0%	3.9%	0.7%	95.0%	90.7%	4.7%	99.7%	0.7%
BUF	4-1	-5.4%	9.8	3.0%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	48.5%	16.9%	5.0%	4.4%	65.4%	70.4%	21.7%
NYJ	0-4	-19.1%	5.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	3.1%	3.1%	-5.6%
MIA	0-4	-57.0%	2.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

[mjp28]

Well the update through WEEK 6 looks like the Browns chances have dropped to about 7 wins and a 22.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Or our next opponent NE, looks like poor 4-1 Buffalo is getting little respect except for a wild card.

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	4-2	10.2%	9.4	3.1%	16.0%	20.0%	26.5%	2.8%	4.5%	65.6%	19.2%	7.3%	72.9%	3.1%
PIT	2-4	-0.3%	7.7	0.1%	3.6%	6.8%	9.1%	5.5%	8.7%	19.6%	3.7%	14.2%	33.7%	10.2%
CLE	2-4	-10.0%	6.9	0.1%	1.6%	4.1%	8.7%	2.7%	5.2%	14.5%	1.7%	7.8%	22.4%	-10.0%
CIN	0-6	-26.8%	3.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.6%	-0.6%

AFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
NE	6-0	40.6%	13.5	83.2%	9.5%	2.8%	0.7%	3.3%	0.4%	96.1%	92.6%	3.7%	99.8%	0.2%
BUF	4-1	-5.8%	9.6	2.5%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	47.5%	17.0%	3.8%	3.4%	64.4%	68.2%	-2.2%
NYJ	1-4	0.2% (adj.)	7.4	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	7.9%	10.3%	0.1%	0.1%	18.2%	18.3%	15.2%
MIA	0-5	-59.3%	1.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0%

[mjp28]

Oh and the look ahead partial playoff scenario. Yes the Browns have dropped to the bottom of the barrel.

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

• Reaching the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Super Bowl

Team	Conf App	Conf Win	SB Win	16-0
1.NE	81.8%	62.3%	41.3%	6.4%
SF	48.9%	30.2%	13.9%	1.1%
KC	35.3%	14.0%	7.6%	0.0%
NO	37.4%	17.5%	6.5%	0.0%
GB	26.5%	12.9%	5.0%	0.0%
SEA	18.3%	9.0%	3.6%	0.0%
HOU	23.9%	7.5%	3.4%	0.0%
8.BAL	22.1%	7.0%	3.3%	0.0%

23. CLE   2.4%   0.5%   0.2%   0.0%      

[mjp28]

Well BROWNS fans everywhere this thing that I started before the season began has proven to be quite accurate.  The BROWNS are now down to an 8.7% chance to make ANY playoff spot and 6.2% of that as a wild card and 2.6% chance to win a division championship and a minute 0.1% chance of getting a BYE week. .

So much about the BROWNS being the new AFCN powerhouse and dominating for years.

So much for statistics and analytics now it's about draft positions and WHO the BROWNS need to improve.......in 2020. Sounds like forever, right?

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	6-2	16.7%	11.0	13.5%	28.7%	23.1%	22.8%	2.6%	2.6%	88.0%	42.1%	5.2%	93.2%	8.7%
PIT	4-4	-3.1%	8.2	0.1%	2.4%	3.5%	3.5%	13.1%	14.7%	9.5%	2.5%	27.9%	37.3%	8.6%
CLE	2-6	-9.2%	6.5	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	1.9%	2.1%	4.1%	2.5%	0.1%	6.2%	8.7%	-14.3%
CIN	0-8	-34.8%	2.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

[flyingfooldoug]

Two weeks ago we were drafting number 11.  We’ve moved up to 7 already. The math is way better to snag the number one draft pick than it is to get a playoff spot.