BROWNS ODDS MAKING PLAYOFFS with *6-9 start (*revised 12-23) at 0.00%.....game over..

[hoorta]

@the-gipper said:

FIFY, but you're mostly right about Gipper too.... 

About what?  Putting "provisos" on things?  Again, I have no clue what that is supposed to mean or what you are all talking about. You and I have had disagreements...differences of opinions...on some things.  I mean is "your opinion differs from mine"  your  definition of a "proviso"?   If not...what is, and show me these examples.  I don't recall having any provisos when we were debating the whole  "titles to be claimed" argument. In fact...you were the one with provisos (not counting because its not a title in the Super Bowl era, not counting because it was in Akron or Canton, not Cleveland.     (and since we are on that topic....Santa Clara is as far away from San Francisco as Canton is from Cleveland!!)   Again, WTF is a "proviso".  

PS- I was also on the Trubisky Train, but it's looking more and more like the Bears gave up way to much to get him- and he should have been drafted lower. Saved the Browns from making a big mistake? Very possibly.  

Now about that Ghoolie feller and his love of Paxton Lynch and hate for Joe Thomas. I'd feel a lot better about our playoff SB chances if Joe was still playing. A 80% Joe would still be better than anything we currently have. 

Water over the bridge at this point.

1) Don't take stuff so personal

2) Some things it's OK to go to great lengths to "prove" you're right. Most of the time it's downright annoying, and no one besides you cares. 

[The Gipper]

@hoorta said:

1) Don't take stuff so personal

I don't know that I am taking it personal.  In this case I was just trying to figure out what tiny Tim meant by saying I put "provisos" on things. I was just asking for clarification....because I am admittedly clueless there.

2) Some things it's OK to go to great lengths to "prove" you're right. Most of the time it's downright annoying, and no one besides you cares. 

I don't go to many lengths to prove any facts.  Most of those are easily attainable, and irrefutable.  I just have to cut and paste, or link them.  Now, on matters of opinion...I likely do go to some lengths to support my contentions.  I mean, I have been to law school. That is what we are trained to do.   We are also trained to point out and exploit inconsistencies in an opponents arguments.  

Let's again take the friendly debate over the "regional title count".  Your contention (I believe...correct me if I am wrong) is that the Akron and Canton titles should not be included with those won by teams in Cleveland. But yet, the inconsistency in your argument would be that  you would, perhaps, include a 49er title won in Santa Clara as a San Francisco title. Or those won in New Jersey in with New York City. Etc. Regional teams....Tennesse/Minnesota/New England etc.    So, I don't know...maybe pointing out inconsistencies in a counterargument is annoying. So be it.    And one can always cop out of an argument by saying I don't care. (but, in my profession...that attitude would not have gone over well with the client...nor with the court). Nevertheless, I can try that in the future.  See how it goes.

[Tour2ma]

Since I can see quotes... even of the Ignored...

Gip,

While provisos creep into many of your "opinions" as well... "Fair to say?"... they are always a part of your assessments and predictions, e.g. "I like so and so. He could end up being the best QB in the draft." That's an example we see every year... and it's a feature of every player "evaluation" you make. It's your substitute for knowledge of how the game is played and putting in the time to actually have a basis for your "assessment".

[The Gipper]

@tour2ma said:

Since I can see quotes... even of the Ignored...

Gip,

While provisos creep into many of your "opinions" as well... "Fair to say?"... they are always a part of your assessments and predictions, e.g. "I like so and so. He could end up being the best QB in the draft." That's an example we see every year... and it's a feature of every player "evaluation" you make. It's your substitute for knowledge of how the game is played and putting in the time to actually have a basis for your "assessment".

Well, if you think that is the case....every opinion, every evaluation, nearly every comment ever made on here that is not a discernible statement of fact carries with it a proviso.....including every single opinion you have ever stated.  You have no better clue how a particular player may ultimately end up than I do even if you perhaps have more Xs and Os knowledge than I do.  I just don't track your opinions on such matters as you apparently track mine. 

And my knowledge of how the game is played is sufficient to have an opinion on some things.  And I am right on many of my opinions, and I am wrong on some....just like you.  

But, following a particular directive,  you see.....I don't care if you are right or wrong on your opinions.  You can be right...or you can be wrong. 

Ca ne fait rien

Fair to say? 

[mjp28]

BROWNS CHANCES TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AFTER GAME 5 AT 2-3 DROP, NATURALLY BUT STILL A LONG WAY TO GO.

As you might imagine the BROWNS chances to make the playoffs took a dip and Baltimore jumped back up on the 3-2 vs 2-3 records -but- it's early and the BROWNS do have the head to head win over the blackbirds.

However the game vs Seattle now becomes a must win before the week 7 bye week and the big 4:25 pm week 8 matchup with New England!

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	3-2	10.8%	9.3	3.1%	12.4%	21.5%	24.7%	3.3%	4.9%	61.7%	15.5%	8.2%	69.9%	16.8%
CLE	2-3	-7.5%	7.5	0.4%	2.9%	6.9%	13.1%	3.4%	5.8%	23.3%	3.3%	9.1%	32.4%	-23.7%
PIT	1-4	-1.2%	7.1	0.0%	1.6%	4.5%	8.1%	3.3%	6.0%	14.2%	1.6%	9.4%	23.6%	-2.4%
CIN	0-5	-26.6%	3.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%	0.3%	0.8%	0.0%	0.3%	1.2%	-0.1

[mjp28]

And let's look ahead a bit, not an easy schedule for the BROWNS right now.......

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

• Reaching the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Super Bowl

Team	Conf App	Conf Win	SB Win	16-0
1. NE	78.7%	57.7%	37.3%	5.7% <--- our week 8 opponent
2. SF	49.0%	31.1%	15.4%	1.0%
KC	43.1%	17.7%	9.2%	0.0%
NO	31.7%	14.6%	5.6%	0.0%
PHI	23.1%	11.6%	5.1%	0.0%
6. BAL	20.8%	7.6%	3.8%	0.0% <--- they beat them!
GB	19.9%	9.1%	3.5%	0.0%
8. SEA	15.6%	7.7%	3.2%	0.0% <--- our next opponent
DAL	16.5%	7.6%	3.2%	0.0%
HOU	15.8%	5.5%	2.5%	0.0%
DET	10.5%	4.4%	1.6%	0.0%
LAR	8.4%	4.0%	1.6%	0.0%
MIN	9.1%	3.9%	1.6%	0.0%
CHI	7.0%	2.8%	1.0%	0.0%
BUF	6.8%	2.3%	0.9%	0.0%
CAR	5.9%	2.3%	0.7%	0.0%
OAK	6.3%	1.6%	0.6%	0.0%
LAC	4.8%	1.5%	0.6%	0.0%
IND	6.6%	1.6%	0.6%	0.0%
JAX	5.5%	1.4%	0.5%	0.0%
21. CLE	4.5%	1.1%	0.4%	0.0% <--- just above pit
PIT	3.3%	0.9%	0.3%	0.0%
TEN	3.0%	0.8%	0.3%	0.0%
TB	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

[mjp28]

And to show how skewed things can be plus how much your division's strengths and weaknesses play into your record just look.  For example NE has a 99% chance of making the playoffs after WEEK 5!    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

AFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
NE	5-0	37.9%	13.4	77.9%	12.8%	3.4%	1.0%	3.9%	0.7%	95.0%	90.7%	4.7%	99.7%	0.7%
BUF	4-1	-5.4%	9.8	3.0%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	48.5%	16.9%	5.0%	4.4%	65.4%	70.4%	21.7%
NYJ	0-4	-19.1%	5.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	3.1%	3.1%	-5.6%
MIA	0-4	-57.0%	2.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

[mjp28]

Well the update through WEEK 6 looks like the Browns chances have dropped to about 7 wins and a 22.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Or our next opponent NE, looks like poor 4-1 Buffalo is getting little respect except for a wild card.

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	4-2	10.2%	9.4	3.1%	16.0%	20.0%	26.5%	2.8%	4.5%	65.6%	19.2%	7.3%	72.9%	3.1%
PIT	2-4	-0.3%	7.7	0.1%	3.6%	6.8%	9.1%	5.5%	8.7%	19.6%	3.7%	14.2%	33.7%	10.2%
CLE	2-4	-10.0%	6.9	0.1%	1.6%	4.1%	8.7%	2.7%	5.2%	14.5%	1.7%	7.8%	22.4%	-10.0%
CIN	0-6	-26.8%	3.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.6%	-0.6%

AFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
NE	6-0	40.6%	13.5	83.2%	9.5%	2.8%	0.7%	3.3%	0.4%	96.1%	92.6%	3.7%	99.8%	0.2%
BUF	4-1	-5.8%	9.6	2.5%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	47.5%	17.0%	3.8%	3.4%	64.4%	68.2%	-2.2%
NYJ	1-4	0.2% (adj.)	7.4	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	7.9%	10.3%	0.1%	0.1%	18.2%	18.3%	15.2%
MIA	0-5	-59.3%	1.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0%

[mjp28]

Oh and the look ahead partial playoff scenario. Yes the Browns have dropped to the bottom of the barrel.

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

• Reaching the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Super Bowl

Team	Conf App	Conf Win	SB Win	16-0
1.NE	81.8%	62.3%	41.3%	6.4%
SF	48.9%	30.2%	13.9%	1.1%
KC	35.3%	14.0%	7.6%	0.0%
NO	37.4%	17.5%	6.5%	0.0%
GB	26.5%	12.9%	5.0%	0.0%
SEA	18.3%	9.0%	3.6%	0.0%
HOU	23.9%	7.5%	3.4%	0.0%
8.BAL	22.1%	7.0%	3.3%	0.0%

23. CLE   2.4%   0.5%   0.2%   0.0%      

[mjp28]

Well BROWNS fans everywhere this thing that I started before the season began has proven to be quite accurate.  The BROWNS are now down to an 8.7% chance to make ANY playoff spot and 6.2% of that as a wild card and 2.6% chance to win a division championship and a minute 0.1% chance of getting a BYE week. .

So much about the BROWNS being the new AFCN powerhouse and dominating for years.

So much for statistics and analytics now it's about draft positions and WHO the BROWNS need to improve.......in 2020. Sounds like forever, right?

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	6-2	16.7%	11.0	13.5%	28.7%	23.1%	22.8%	2.6%	2.6%	88.0%	42.1%	5.2%	93.2%	8.7%
PIT	4-4	-3.1%	8.2	0.1%	2.4%	3.5%	3.5%	13.1%	14.7%	9.5%	2.5%	27.9%	37.3%	8.6%
CLE	2-6	-9.2%	6.5	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	1.9%	2.1%	4.1%	2.5%	0.1%	6.2%	8.7%	-14.3%
CIN	0-8	-34.8%	2.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

[flyingfooldoug]

Two weeks ago we were drafting number 11.  We’ve moved up to 7 already. The math is way better to snag the number one draft pick than it is to get a playoff spot. 

[OldBrownsFan]

I was still hopeful even at 2-5 we could make the playoffs but after losing to Denver reality has set in. The odds now are too great against us this year. If we were going to make a run at the playoffs it had to start with beating a 2-5 Denver.

[mjp28]

@flyingfooldoug said:

Two weeks ago we were drafting number 11.  We’ve moved up to 7 already. The math is way better to snag the number one draft pick than it is to get a playoff spot. 

Oh God we're in a race with Cincinnati to see who gets a better draft pick.   

The opportunity for a bottom 5 or 8 draft pick has now slipped away with the good teams, better luck next year, come again.

Haven't we played this game before...................for years.

And it has nothing to do with being a good or great die hard BROWNS fan.  We're all BROWNS fans or we wouldn't be here at all and I expect our numbers will dwindle again over the winter unless the BROWNS pull together for some fantastic finish for that elusive 15th draft pick, lol.   

Maybe losing is like medicine and you have to take it to get better I don't know except that I've had plenty of both over the past five years.

GO BROWNS, just win baby!  Winning can cure some ails that nothing else can........ period.

[flyingfooldoug]

@mjp28 said:

Oh God we're in a race with Cincinnati to see who gets a better draft pick.   

The opportunity for a bottom 5 or 8 draft pick has now slipped away with the good teams, better luck next year, come again.

Haven't we played this game before...................for years.

And it has nothing to do with being a good or great die hard BROWNS fan.  We're all BROWNS fans or we wouldn't be here at all and I expect our numbers will dwindle again over the winter unless the BROWNS pull together for some fantastic finish for that elusive 15th draft pick, lol.   

Maybe losing is like medicine and you have to take it to get better I don't know except that I've had plenty of both over the past five years.

GO BROWNS, just win baby!  Winning can cure some ails that nothing else can........ period.

Spot on dude. And forgive me but I just don’t see successful NFL head coach in Fred’s future. 

[mjp28]

@flyingfooldoug said:

Spot on dude. And forgive me but I just don’t see successful NFL head coach in Fred’s future. 

High school is always nice.

[mjp28]

In case you forgot and we're wondering the high point of the season and CLE had an edge over BAL at winning the division.  No wonder we were all so giddy.

What a difference a big win makes!

AFC North....after the win at Baltimore

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	 #5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	2-2	10.8%	8.9	2.2%	6.5%	15.5%	15.0%	6.5%	7.4%	39.2%	8.7%	13.9%	 53.1%	-24.5%
*CLE	2-2	2.9%	8.8	2.1%	6.6%	15.0%	19.7%	5.3%	7.3%	*43.4%	8.7%	12.7%	*56.1%	21.9% yeah baby we could taste it, now it just tastes like $&\¥
PIT	1-3	-3.4%	7.3	0.2%	2.0%	6.1%	8.4%	3.6%	5.8%	16.6%	2.1%	9.3%	25.9%	 15.3%
CIN	0-4	-28.9%	4.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.4%	0.8%	0.0%	0.5%	1.2%	-3.3%

[The Gipper]

@mjp28 said:

In case you forgot and we're wondering the high point of the season and CLE had an edge over BAL at winning the division.  No wonder we were all so giddy.

What a difference a big win makes!

AFC North....after the win at Baltimore

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	 #5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	2-2	10.8%	8.9	2.2%	6.5%	15.5%	15.0%	6.5%	7.4%	39.2%	8.7%	13.9%	 53.1%	-24.5%
*CLE	2-2	2.9%	8.8	2.1%	6.6%	15.0%	19.7%	5.3%	7.3%	*43.4%	8.7%	12.7%	*56.1%	21.9% yeah baby we could taste it, now it just tastes like $&\¥
PIT	1-3	-3.4%	7.3	0.2%	2.0%	6.1%	8.4%	3.6%	5.8%	16.6%	2.1%	9.3%	25.9%	 15.3%
CIN	0-4	-28.9%	4.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.4%	0.8%	0.0%	0.5%	1.2%	-3.3%

[mjp28]

Here's the updated odds after the win over Buffalo and going to 3-6 and a 10.1% shot at the playoffs, we will see what 4-6 looks like after this weekend is completed.

AFC North

Team	W-L	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	7-2	23.8%	11.6	23.6%	40.7%	16.4%	9.8%	4.1%	2.2%	90.5%	64.3%	6.3%	96.8%	3.7%
PIT	5-4	-0.5%	8.8	0.1%	4.0%	2.7%	1.4%	25.9%	18.1%	8.2%	4.2%	44.0%	52.2%	14.2%
CLE	3-6	-11.5%	6.8	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%	3.5%	5.4%	1.3%	0.2%	8.9%	10.1% <--- 1/10 right now	1.6%
CIN	0-9	-42.4%	1.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	on the clock?0.0%	-0.0%

[mjp28]

And here it is at 4-6 and the task ahead is simple (not really) keep winning and hope for a wild card for any shot at the playoffs.

AFC North

Team	W-L	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	8-2	33.5%	12.3	27.0%	53.5%	14.3%	3.4%	0.6%	0.5%	98.3%	80.6%	1.2%	99.4%	2.7%
PIT	5-5	-4.7%	7.9	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	13.1%	13.4%	1.0%	0.4%	26.5%	27.5%	-24.7%
CLE *	4-6	-4.7%	7.4	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	7.1%	10.3%	0.7%	0.2%	* 17.4%	* 18.1%	* up 8.0%
CIN	0-10	-37.1%	1.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

[jrb12711]

Definitely the time (of course, on top of winning) to root for those wonky losses for teams ahead. Bengals v Steelers, Jets v Raiders, etc. Even one of those teams taking a "bad loss" makes the odds better.

Just wish we had that damn Denver game back-only one that really sticks in my craw. 5-5 with that win, and the schedule we have would be sitting pretty strong.