BROWNS ODDS MAKING PLAYOFFS with *6-9 start (*revised 12-23) at 0.00%.....game over..

[mjp28]

Oh and the look ahead partial playoff scenario. Yes the Browns have dropped to the bottom of the barrel.

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

• Reaching the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Conference Championship Game
• Winning the Super Bowl

Team	Conf App	Conf Win	SB Win	16-0
1.NE	81.8%	62.3%	41.3%	6.4%
SF	48.9%	30.2%	13.9%	1.1%
KC	35.3%	14.0%	7.6%	0.0%
NO	37.4%	17.5%	6.5%	0.0%
GB	26.5%	12.9%	5.0%	0.0%
SEA	18.3%	9.0%	3.6%	0.0%
HOU	23.9%	7.5%	3.4%	0.0%
8.BAL	22.1%	7.0%	3.3%	0.0%

23. CLE   2.4%   0.5%   0.2%   0.0%      

[mjp28]

Well BROWNS fans everywhere this thing that I started before the season began has proven to be quite accurate.  The BROWNS are now down to an 8.7% chance to make ANY playoff spot and 6.2% of that as a wild card and 2.6% chance to win a division championship and a minute 0.1% chance of getting a BYE week. .

So much about the BROWNS being the new AFCN powerhouse and dominating for years.

So much for statistics and analytics now it's about draft positions and WHO the BROWNS need to improve.......in 2020. Sounds like forever, right?

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	6-2	16.7%	11.0	13.5%	28.7%	23.1%	22.8%	2.6%	2.6%	88.0%	42.1%	5.2%	93.2%	8.7%
PIT	4-4	-3.1%	8.2	0.1%	2.4%	3.5%	3.5%	13.1%	14.7%	9.5%	2.5%	27.9%	37.3%	8.6%
CLE	2-6	-9.2%	6.5	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	1.9%	2.1%	4.1%	2.5%	0.1%	6.2%	8.7%	-14.3%
CIN	0-8	-34.8%	2.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

[flyingfooldoug]

Two weeks ago we were drafting number 11.  We’ve moved up to 7 already. The math is way better to snag the number one draft pick than it is to get a playoff spot. 

[OldBrownsFan]

I was still hopeful even at 2-5 we could make the playoffs but after losing to Denver reality has set in. The odds now are too great against us this year. If we were going to make a run at the playoffs it had to start with beating a 2-5 Denver.

[mjp28]

@flyingfooldoug said:

Two weeks ago we were drafting number 11.  We’ve moved up to 7 already. The math is way better to snag the number one draft pick than it is to get a playoff spot. 

Oh God we're in a race with Cincinnati to see who gets a better draft pick.   

The opportunity for a bottom 5 or 8 draft pick has now slipped away with the good teams, better luck next year, come again.

Haven't we played this game before...................for years.

And it has nothing to do with being a good or great die hard BROWNS fan.  We're all BROWNS fans or we wouldn't be here at all and I expect our numbers will dwindle again over the winter unless the BROWNS pull together for some fantastic finish for that elusive 15th draft pick, lol.   

Maybe losing is like medicine and you have to take it to get better I don't know except that I've had plenty of both over the past five years.

GO BROWNS, just win baby!  Winning can cure some ails that nothing else can........ period.

[flyingfooldoug]

@mjp28 said:

Oh God we're in a race with Cincinnati to see who gets a better draft pick.   

The opportunity for a bottom 5 or 8 draft pick has now slipped away with the good teams, better luck next year, come again.

Haven't we played this game before...................for years.

And it has nothing to do with being a good or great die hard BROWNS fan.  We're all BROWNS fans or we wouldn't be here at all and I expect our numbers will dwindle again over the winter unless the BROWNS pull together for some fantastic finish for that elusive 15th draft pick, lol.   

Maybe losing is like medicine and you have to take it to get better I don't know except that I've had plenty of both over the past five years.

GO BROWNS, just win baby!  Winning can cure some ails that nothing else can........ period.

Spot on dude. And forgive me but I just don’t see successful NFL head coach in Fred’s future. 

[mjp28]

@flyingfooldoug said:

Spot on dude. And forgive me but I just don’t see successful NFL head coach in Fred’s future. 

High school is always nice.

[mjp28]

In case you forgot and we're wondering the high point of the season and CLE had an edge over BAL at winning the division.  No wonder we were all so giddy.

What a difference a big win makes!

AFC North....after the win at Baltimore

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	 #5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	2-2	10.8%	8.9	2.2%	6.5%	15.5%	15.0%	6.5%	7.4%	39.2%	8.7%	13.9%	 53.1%	-24.5%
*CLE	2-2	2.9%	8.8	2.1%	6.6%	15.0%	19.7%	5.3%	7.3%	*43.4%	8.7%	12.7%	*56.1%	21.9% yeah baby we could taste it, now it just tastes like $&\¥
PIT	1-3	-3.4%	7.3	0.2%	2.0%	6.1%	8.4%	3.6%	5.8%	16.6%	2.1%	9.3%	25.9%	 15.3%
CIN	0-4	-28.9%	4.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.4%	0.8%	0.0%	0.5%	1.2%	-3.3%

[The Gipper]

@mjp28 said:

In case you forgot and we're wondering the high point of the season and CLE had an edge over BAL at winning the division.  No wonder we were all so giddy.

What a difference a big win makes!

AFC North....after the win at Baltimore

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	 #5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	2-2	10.8%	8.9	2.2%	6.5%	15.5%	15.0%	6.5%	7.4%	39.2%	8.7%	13.9%	 53.1%	-24.5%
*CLE	2-2	2.9%	8.8	2.1%	6.6%	15.0%	19.7%	5.3%	7.3%	*43.4%	8.7%	12.7%	*56.1%	21.9% yeah baby we could taste it, now it just tastes like $&\¥
PIT	1-3	-3.4%	7.3	0.2%	2.0%	6.1%	8.4%	3.6%	5.8%	16.6%	2.1%	9.3%	25.9%	 15.3%
CIN	0-4	-28.9%	4.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.4%	0.8%	0.0%	0.5%	1.2%	-3.3%

[mjp28]

Here's the updated odds after the win over Buffalo and going to 3-6 and a 10.1% shot at the playoffs, we will see what 4-6 looks like after this weekend is completed.

AFC North

Team	W-L	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	7-2	23.8%	11.6	23.6%	40.7%	16.4%	9.8%	4.1%	2.2%	90.5%	64.3%	6.3%	96.8%	3.7%
PIT	5-4	-0.5%	8.8	0.1%	4.0%	2.7%	1.4%	25.9%	18.1%	8.2%	4.2%	44.0%	52.2%	14.2%
CLE	3-6	-11.5%	6.8	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%	3.5%	5.4%	1.3%	0.2%	8.9%	10.1% <--- 1/10 right now	1.6%
CIN	0-9	-42.4%	1.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	on the clock?0.0%	-0.0%

[mjp28]

And here it is at 4-6 and the task ahead is simple (not really) keep winning and hope for a wild card for any shot at the playoffs.

AFC North

Team	W-L	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	8-2	33.5%	12.3	27.0%	53.5%	14.3%	3.4%	0.6%	0.5%	98.3%	80.6%	1.2%	99.4%	2.7%
PIT	5-5	-4.7%	7.9	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	13.1%	13.4%	1.0%	0.4%	26.5%	27.5%	-24.7%
CLE *	4-6	-4.7%	7.4	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	7.1%	10.3%	0.7%	0.2%	* 17.4%	* 18.1%	* up 8.0%
CIN	0-10	-37.1%	1.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

[jrb12711]

Definitely the time (of course, on top of winning) to root for those wonky losses for teams ahead. Bengals v Steelers, Jets v Raiders, etc. Even one of those teams taking a "bad loss" makes the odds better.

Just wish we had that damn Denver game back-only one that really sticks in my craw. 5-5 with that win, and the schedule we have would be sitting pretty strong.

[mjp28]

@jrb12711 said:

Just wish we had that damn Denver game back-only one that really sticks in my craw. 5-5 with that win, and the schedule we have would be sitting pretty strong.

Yeah when you miss a layup or 2' putt you don't get those back..... especially when they are up the numbers at the end of the game.

[LBC mike]

The Denver game was the most disappointing this year.

[hx214]

@lbc-mike said:

The Denver game was the most disappointing this year.

Yep... basically took any excitement I had left out of the season. Outside of coming on this site, I’ve turned everything off Browns related except games... I will say, not listening to Bull and Fox on my drive home has actually put me in a better mood most days.... those guys really annoy me...

[mjp28]

@lbc-mike said:

The Denver game was the most disappointing this year.

Remember last season when they finished 7-8-1 and we're at least close to thinking about the playoffs "IF" certain things and overtime games went the other way?

This year it will be games like DEN and others that just slipped away...... unless they can run the table without a certain all pro guy.

GO BROWNS, we have to be the toughest fans in sports !

[mjp28]

We'll see what happens with this after MNF.  Remember the BROWNS were 2-2 at one time with a win over Baltimore, the next game is very pivotal for the division and season.

[mjp28]

Well at 5-6 things have turned around from around 10% to about 21.5% with that nice 3 game win streak.  -but-. the next must win game is up with the BROWNS a slight favorite in the Cleveland-Pittsburgh II main event !

The second wild card spot is also getting interesting.

Team	W-L	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
NE	10-1	41.4%	14.0	72.3%	25.5%	1.7%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	99.7%	97.8%	0.3%	√ 100.0%	0.0%
BUF	8-3	0.4%	9.8	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	60.8%	19.8%	0.3%	0.3%	√ 80.7%	81.0%	√ 22.8%
NYJ	4-7	-0.9%	6.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.8%	0.3%
MIA	2-9	-37.3%	3.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Team	W-L	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	9-2	44.0%	12.8	26.8%	62.7%	8.8%	1.1%	0.2%	0.2%	√ 99.5%	√ 89.5%	0.4%	√ 99.9%	0.4%
PIT	6-5	-3.9%	8.0	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	12.7%	14.4%	0.4%	0.2%	27.0%	27.4%	-0.1%
CLE *	5-6	1.0%	7.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	7.8%	13.6%	0.1%	0.0%	* 21.4%	* 21.5%	* 3.4%
CIN	0-11	-33.2%	1.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	x 0.0%

[mjp28]

Well with a 5-7 start the BROWNS have pretty much ended any serious talk about making the 2019 playoffs with a 4.8% chance of getting a wild card spot.

Better luck next year.

AFC North

Team	W-L	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
BAL	10-2	44.9%	13.1	64.7%	30.4%	3.5%	0.8%	0.1%	0.4%	99.5%	95.1%	0.5%	100.0%	0.1%
PIT	7-5	2.0%	8.7	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	13.1%	26.6%	0.5%	0.2%	39.7%	40.3%	12.8%
CLE *	5-7	2.1%	* 7.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	* 0.3%	* 4.6%	0.0%	0.0%	* 4.8%	4.8%	** -16.7%
CIN	1-11	-23.2%	2.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

[Tour2ma]

So you're saying.... there's a chance!!!