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How did the Defense get so bad?

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  • Mack was a 5th round pick rookie. Who knows what kind of jump he was about to make going into year 2.

    @clevelandwantsplayoffs said:

    Mack was a 5th round pick rookie. Who knows what kind of jump he was about to make going into year 2.

    It's definitely possible. I wouldn't expect it to happen, but you never know. Most 5th rounders don't end up starting in their second year, or at all really, so perhaps he's that rare diamond in the rough? The best things about Mack are his speed and his nose for the ball. When I went back through the Bengals game, one thing I noticed was our lack of speed in the middle of the field. Mack will certainly help with that. 

  • @clevelandwantsplayoffs said:

    Mack was a 5th round pick rookie. Who knows what kind of jump he was about to make going into year 2.

    It's definitely possible. I wouldn't expect it to happen, but you never know. Most 5th rounders don't end up starting in their second year, or at all really, so perhaps he's that rare diamond in the rough? The best things about Mack are his speed and his nose for the ball. When I went back through the Bengals game, one thing I noticed was our lack of speed in the middle of the field. Mack will certainly help with that. 

    @jiggins7919 said:

    It's definitely possible. I wouldn't expect it to happen, but you never know. Most 5th rounders don't end up starting in their second year, or at all really, so perhaps he's that rare diamond in the rough? The best things about Mack are his speed and his nose for the ball. When I went back through the Bengals game, one thing I noticed was our lack of speed in the middle of the field. Mack will certainly help with that. 

    He cannot be any worse than what we currently have

  • @jiggins7919 said:

    It's definitely possible. I wouldn't expect it to happen, but you never know. Most 5th rounders don't end up starting in their second year, or at all really, so perhaps he's that rare diamond in the rough? The best things about Mack are his speed and his nose for the ball. When I went back through the Bengals game, one thing I noticed was our lack of speed in the middle of the field. Mack will certainly help with that. 

    He cannot be any worse than what we currently have

    @marvin-the-martian said:

    He cannot be any worse than what we currently have

    So true, lol. 

  • Analysis of Hawks-Pats

    Newton picked on.. Jamal Adams.  He would not be "the solution" - and it's probably good we didn't blow our cap to sign him.

    Speaking of changes to our defense, I'm fully on the "Start Porter Gustin" train.

    @unsympathetic said:

    Analysis of Hawks-Pats

    Newton picked on.. Jamal Adams.  He would not be "the solution" - and it's probably good we didn't blow our cap to sign him.

    Speaking of changes to our defense, I'm fully on the "Start Porter Gustin" train.

    Didn’t blow our cap to sign him? The Browns have the most cap space in the league, and are projected to be no worse than 14th in space clear through 2024....

    I think this is the most frustrating thing about this team for me. “Can’t sign Joe Schobert because he wants to much” so let him walk and replace him with NOBODY because we need that cap space.  It’s been the same story for years.


    Never sign Free Agents because you gotta build through the draft! So sit on all that money and leave massive holes in the roster and keep taking your “behind the wood shed” beatings year after year.  Meanwhile you draft worse than Yahoo! Fantasy auto draft picker...
     

    How about signing some middle of the road Vets to fill those Linebacker gaps with short term contracts so we don’t have to watch TakiTaki out there looking like someone’s little brother playing in a pickup game with the big kids. 

  • @unsympathetic said:

    Analysis of Hawks-Pats

    Newton picked on.. Jamal Adams.  He would not be "the solution" - and it's probably good we didn't blow our cap to sign him.

    Speaking of changes to our defense, I'm fully on the "Start Porter Gustin" train.

    Didn’t blow our cap to sign him? The Browns have the most cap space in the league, and are projected to be no worse than 14th in space clear through 2024....

    I think this is the most frustrating thing about this team for me. “Can’t sign Joe Schobert because he wants to much” so let him walk and replace him with NOBODY because we need that cap space.  It’s been the same story for years.


    Never sign Free Agents because you gotta build through the draft! So sit on all that money and leave massive holes in the roster and keep taking your “behind the wood shed” beatings year after year.  Meanwhile you draft worse than Yahoo! Fantasy auto draft picker...
     

    How about signing some middle of the road Vets to fill those Linebacker gaps with short term contracts so we don’t have to watch TakiTaki out there looking like someone’s little brother playing in a pickup game with the big kids. 

    @hx214 said:

    let him walk and replace him with NOBODY because we need that cap space.

    False. He was not replaced because we had greater needs in the draft and the FA market was not great. Add to the latter that we are still not that desirable a franchise.

    As for your Cap projections.. source? Over-the-Cap shows a significantly growing cap margin thru 2024 (rising to $220mm), but that's because they do not project signings... they merely roll current contracts off the books as they expire.

    If Baker plays the rest of the season as he did Thursday do you think he'll come cheap? Every team that inks a franchise QB faves cap pain. The one exception I can think of is NE... and that was only because TB12 took cap-friendly restructures of three different contracts (IIRC) so that other talent could be added or retained around him. You can't go crazy while your QB is on a rookie contract.

    What about Chubb? Wills? Ward? Bito?

    Every player has a value. Schobert simply exceeded his.

  • @hx214 said:

    let him walk and replace him with NOBODY because we need that cap space.

    False. He was not replaced because we had greater needs in the draft and the FA market was not great. Add to the latter that we are still not that desirable a franchise.

    As for your Cap projections.. source? Over-the-Cap shows a significantly growing cap margin thru 2024 (rising to $220mm), but that's because they do not project signings... they merely roll current contracts off the books as they expire.

    If Baker plays the rest of the season as he did Thursday do you think he'll come cheap? Every team that inks a franchise QB faves cap pain. The one exception I can think of is NE... and that was only because TB12 took cap-friendly restructures of three different contracts (IIRC) so that other talent could be added or retained around him. You can't go crazy while your QB is on a rookie contract.

    What about Chubb? Wills? Ward? Bito?

    Every player has a value. Schobert simply exceeded his.

    @tour2ma said:

    False. He was not replaced because we had greater needs in the draft and the FA market was not great. Add to the latter that we are still not that desirable a franchise.

    (Maybe because we don't pay properly?  Or because we are not seen as a team that will attempt to go and do the ultimate to put a winning team out there?  That we may be seen as too reliant on "Moneyball".....attempting to getting maximum production for the least possible cost)?  More likely actually because we have had such a series of loser owners/GMs/coaches run this shitshow for so long.?)

    Every player has a value. Schobert simply exceeded his.

    I would not disagree with that.  But, in letting him walk,  I would have liked to have seen them set a goal to replace him with as good or better. Not sure they tried there.   Bringing in Goodson?  Drafting the Beach Boys/Mamas and Papas kids? 

  • @hx214 said:

    let him walk and replace him with NOBODY because we need that cap space.

    False. He was not replaced because we had greater needs in the draft and the FA market was not great. Add to the latter that we are still not that desirable a franchise.

    As for your Cap projections.. source? Over-the-Cap shows a significantly growing cap margin thru 2024 (rising to $220mm), but that's because they do not project signings... they merely roll current contracts off the books as they expire.

    If Baker plays the rest of the season as he did Thursday do you think he'll come cheap? Every team that inks a franchise QB faves cap pain. The one exception I can think of is NE... and that was only because TB12 took cap-friendly restructures of three different contracts (IIRC) so that other talent could be added or retained around him. You can't go crazy while your QB is on a rookie contract.

    What about Chubb? Wills? Ward? Bito?

    Every player has a value. Schobert simply exceeded his.

    @tour2ma said:

    False. He was not replaced because we had greater needs in the draft and the FA market was not great. Add to the latter that we are still not that desirable a franchise.

    As for your Cap projections.. source? Over-the-Cap shows a significantly growing cap margin thru 2024 (rising to $220mm), but that's because they do not project signings... they merely roll current contracts off the books as they expire.

    If Baker plays the rest of the season as he did Thursday do you think he'll come cheap? Every team that inks a franchise QB faves cap pain. The one exception I can think of is NE... and that was only because TB12 took cap-friendly restructures of three different contracts (IIRC) so that other talent could be added or retained around him. You can't go crazy while your QB is on a rookie contract.

    What about Chubb? Wills? Ward? Bito?

    Every player has a value. Schobert simply exceeded his.

    Chubb presents a problem because he has a 4year deal.  He doesn’t have the extra year option that Ward and Baker have.

    Chubb - maybe he takes D Henry type money 12.5M a year?  That deal should give us a little hope. If he wants to be the highest paid back I could see us Franchise tagging him.

    Then you have Ward and Baker.If Baker pans out he becomes the highest priority.

    Ward could be the odd guy out.

    Bito is gonna walk after his deal he’s got two years after this year and he’ll be 31. 
     

    If we draft well guys like Garrett, Baker, Chubb will be surrounded by cheaper good complementary talent at positions we need. 

  • @tour2ma said:

    False. He was not replaced because we had greater needs in the draft and the FA market was not great. Add to the latter that we are still not that desirable a franchise.

    As for your Cap projections.. source? Over-the-Cap shows a significantly growing cap margin thru 2024 (rising to $220mm), but that's because they do not project signings... they merely roll current contracts off the books as they expire.

    If Baker plays the rest of the season as he did Thursday do you think he'll come cheap? Every team that inks a franchise QB faves cap pain. The one exception I can think of is NE... and that was only because TB12 took cap-friendly restructures of three different contracts (IIRC) so that other talent could be added or retained around him. You can't go crazy while your QB is on a rookie contract.

    What about Chubb? Wills? Ward? Bito?

    Every player has a value. Schobert simply exceeded his.

    Chubb presents a problem because he has a 4year deal.  He doesn’t have the extra year option that Ward and Baker have.

    Chubb - maybe he takes D Henry type money 12.5M a year?  That deal should give us a little hope. If he wants to be the highest paid back I could see us Franchise tagging him.

    Then you have Ward and Baker.If Baker pans out he becomes the highest priority.

    Ward could be the odd guy out.

    Bito is gonna walk after his deal he’s got two years after this year and he’ll be 31. 
     

    If we draft well guys like Garrett, Baker, Chubb will be surrounded by cheaper good complementary talent at positions we need. 

    @sdbacker80 said:

    If we draft well guys like Garrett, Baker, Chubb will be surrounded by cheaper good complementary talent at positions we need. 

    The key!

    Only way to get talent on the cheap, but at only three-year bites (after Round 1), it's really hard to sustain that route.

    While you get to keep your firsts for up to 5 years, they can only be termed "economical", not cheap... especially not in that 5th year. And the trend is definitely moving towards extending the really good ones before their rookie deals lapse to keep them and keep them happy.

    Tags? Can be useful, but are not a happy-inducing route to building a team.

  • @sdbacker80 said:

    If we draft well guys like Garrett, Baker, Chubb will be surrounded by cheaper good complementary talent at positions we need. 

    The key!

    Only way to get talent on the cheap, but at only three-year bites (after Round 1), it's really hard to sustain that route.

    While you get to keep your firsts for up to 5 years, they can only be termed "economical", not cheap... especially not in that 5th year. And the trend is definitely moving towards extending the really good ones before their rookie deals lapse to keep them and keep them happy.

    Tags? Can be useful, but are not a happy-inducing route to building a team.

    @tour2ma said:

    The key!

    Only way to get talent on the cheap, but at only three-year bites (after Round 1), it's really hard to sustain that route.

    While you get to keep your firsts for up to 5 years, they can only be termed "economical", not cheap... especially not in that 5th year. And the trend is definitely moving towards extending the really good ones before their rookie deals lapse to keep them and keep them happy.

    Tags? Can be useful, but are not a happy-inducing route to building a team.

    A tag for an elite back with an injury history that will already command high dollars -might be the best choice assuming he turns down Derrick Henry Money.

    id give Chubb a 4yr 50M deal tomorrow

  • Positive news on defense: 

    E1E8089A-56FF-4F31-A26B-4DCDEF469609.png

  • I have been on the road for these first two games...has Elliot  performed that well? 

  • @marvin-the-martian said:

    He starts for the Jaguars  He had 8 tackles last week with 1 TFL

    And the Jags are a lot tougher than anyone thought this year:   Won last week when they were not expected to.   Lost in the last minute to the Tits....who could very well be Super Bowl contenders.   They are not to be overlooked.  Thought they may Tank for Trevor...but, alas, no it seems.  Minshew has played lights out. 

    @the-gipper said:

    And the Jags are a lot tougher than anyone thought this year:   Won last week when they were not expected to.   Lost in the last minute to the Tits....who could very well be Super Bowl contenders.   They are not to be overlooked.  Thought they may Tank for Trevor...but, alas, no it seems.  Minshew has played lights out. 

    And, as of now, it looks like the Pats are not tanking either. (Beat Fins, barely lost to Seattle). Jags dumped so many players, it didn't appear as they were even trying, but apparently they needed to cut/trade that many people to clean the team of malcontents. 

  • Elliot is apparently the 10th highest rated DI in all the league.

  • Elliot is apparently the 10th highest rated DI in all the league.

    @unsympathetic said:

    Elliot is apparently the 10th highest rated DI in all the league.

    But to be cynical about:  So? What good does that do us in a defense that is averaging giving up 34 points a game?

  • By the way, here is the list of worst defenses of all time, based on Points per game given up:

    First Conf. Conf. Super YEAR Record PFPG PAPG Pct. Round Semis Finals Bowl

    1 1966 New York Giants 1-12-1 18.8 35.8 0.107

    2 1981 Baltimore Colts 2-14-0 16.2 33.3 0.125

    3 2008 Detroit Lions 0-16-0 16.8 32.3 0.000

    4 1972 New England Patriots 3-11-0 13.7 31.9 0.214

    4 1973 Houston Oilers 1-13-0 14.2 31.9 0.071

    6 1966 Atlanta Falcons 3-11-0 14.6 31.2 0.214

    7 2009 Detroit Lions 2-14-0 16.4 30.9 0.125

    7 2019 Miami Dolphins 5-11-0 19.1 30.9 0.313

    7 1975 New York Jets 3-11-0 18.4 30.9 0.214

    7 2011 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12-0 17.9 30.9 0.250

    11 2005 St. Louis Rams 6-10-0 22.7 30.8 0.375

    12 1976 Seattle Seahawks 2-12-0 16.4 30.6 0.143

    13 2001 Indianapolis Colts 6-10-0 25.8 30.4 0.375

    13 1980 New Orleans Saints 1-15-0 18.2 30.4 0.062

    15 1984 Minnesota Vikings 3-13-0 17.3 30.3 0.188

    16 1967 Atlanta Falcons 1-12-1 12.5 30.1 0.107

    17 2013 Minnesota Vikings 5-10-1 24.4 30.0 0.344

    17 2016 San Francisco 49ers 2-14-0 19.3 30.0 0.125

  • Analysis of Hawks-Pats

    Newton picked on.. Jamal Adams.  He would not be "the solution" - and it's probably good we didn't blow our cap to sign him.

    Speaking of changes to our defense, I'm fully on the "Start Porter Gustin" train.

    @unsympathetic said:

    Speaking of changes to our defense, I'm fully on the "Start Porter Gustin" train.

    Me too.  I was VERY impressed with Gustin!

  • Having cap space is a byproduct of our many years in the wilderness.. Two years of 50M under a 140M cap means "cap space" of 100M for one season -- any one year gap gets rolled into the next. Cap the following season after spending that 100 is right "back" to the cap before the overage was achieved.

    From OverTheCap: Total Cap Liabilities: $195,722,507

    From Google: Total 2020 NFL cap: $198.2

    That "cap space" number isn't real. Actual salaries are right at the cap and have been for a while.

    Instead of lighting it on fire via a bunch of over-the-hill average FA's looking for a payday.. let's use that space to resign top draft picks who become good.

  • @unsympathetic said:

    Speaking of changes to our defense, I'm fully on the "Start Porter Gustin" train.

    Me too.  I was VERY impressed with Gustin!

    @flugel said:

    Me too.  I was VERY impressed with Gustin!

    Make it 3 on the wagon...

    Kid played fast.

  • Not just because he agrees with me (although that helps... a lot... 😉  ) here's Terry's reply to a 3-question parlay in today's mailbag...

    Hey, Terry: We have a weak defense and $30 million in cap space. Is this part of analytics? – Mike Brubaker, Cuyahoga Falls.

    Hey, Terry: With more than $30 million in cap space, who are some candidates they can scoop up to help the defense? Or are they banking all that cash for signings in the next two years (Chubb, Baker, etc.)? – Tom Harkness, Bay Village

    Hey, Terry: Any analysis of how Joe Schobert has played? Wonder if letting him walk is a Mitchell Schwartz redo? – Tim Corbett, Dana Point, Calif.

    Hey Mike, Tom & Tim: I put all three questions together because they involve money. When I interviewed Andrew Berry, the GM was clear that the main offseason priority was offense. That is where they used the money (free agents Austin Hooper, Jack Conklin and Case Keenum) and the top draft pick (Jedrick Wills).

    They also wanted to start wrapping up key players, and they did extending the contracts of Myles Garrett and Kareem Hunt. They want to begin to win now, but also try to have money left for the future.

    As Tom mentioned, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield and you can add Denzel Ward are eligible for extensions next season. Larry Ogunjobi is a free agent at the end of this year. That’s four starters. They are saving money for that.

    The Browns are $33 million under the salary, most in the NFL. That’s according to overthecap.com.

    I would have signed Schobert. The Jacksonville contract ($53 million) looks huge over five years. It’s $22 million guaranteed over the first two seasons, according to overthecap.com. I would have matched that deal.

    As for Schobert, he’s been above average in the first two games, according to Profootballfocus (PFF). There have been 63 linebackers who have played at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps in the first two games.

    Schobert ranks #15 out of 63.
     
    Here’s a surprise: Macolm Smith of the Browns is at #11 and Sione Takitaki is at #17. I don’t see them playing so well. Smith ranks high in pass coverage.
     
    BJ Goodson has played nearly every snap, and he’s had a tough time. He’s at #47 out of 63, and that does match the eye test.

    When it comes to defense, the Browns (and analytics) says money should be spent on the line and on cornerbacks. Linebackers are not valued. Philadelphia takes the same approach. Berry was influenced by the Eagles, where he was an assistant GM last season.

    Mack Wilson is in practice this week, so perhaps that helps at linebacker. But he had an so-so rookie year and is coming off a knee injury. Not sure what to expect from him.

    https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/09/what-about-the-browns-defense-and-its-salary-cap-earl-thomas-joe-schobert-hey-terry.html

  • Not just because he agrees with me (although that helps... a lot... 😉  ) here's Terry's reply to a 3-question parlay in today's mailbag...

    Hey, Terry: We have a weak defense and $30 million in cap space. Is this part of analytics? – Mike Brubaker, Cuyahoga Falls.

    Hey, Terry: With more than $30 million in cap space, who are some candidates they can scoop up to help the defense? Or are they banking all that cash for signings in the next two years (Chubb, Baker, etc.)? – Tom Harkness, Bay Village

    Hey, Terry: Any analysis of how Joe Schobert has played? Wonder if letting him walk is a Mitchell Schwartz redo? – Tim Corbett, Dana Point, Calif.

    Hey Mike, Tom & Tim: I put all three questions together because they involve money. When I interviewed Andrew Berry, the GM was clear that the main offseason priority was offense. That is where they used the money (free agents Austin Hooper, Jack Conklin and Case Keenum) and the top draft pick (Jedrick Wills).

    They also wanted to start wrapping up key players, and they did extending the contracts of Myles Garrett and Kareem Hunt. They want to begin to win now, but also try to have money left for the future.

    As Tom mentioned, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield and you can add Denzel Ward are eligible for extensions next season. Larry Ogunjobi is a free agent at the end of this year. That’s four starters. They are saving money for that.

    The Browns are $33 million under the salary, most in the NFL. That’s according to overthecap.com.

    I would have signed Schobert. The Jacksonville contract ($53 million) looks huge over five years. It’s $22 million guaranteed over the first two seasons, according to overthecap.com. I would have matched that deal.

    As for Schobert, he’s been above average in the first two games, according to Profootballfocus (PFF). There have been 63 linebackers who have played at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps in the first two games.

    Schobert ranks #15 out of 63.
     
    Here’s a surprise: Macolm Smith of the Browns is at #11 and Sione Takitaki is at #17. I don’t see them playing so well. Smith ranks high in pass coverage.
     
    BJ Goodson has played nearly every snap, and he’s had a tough time. He’s at #47 out of 63, and that does match the eye test.

    When it comes to defense, the Browns (and analytics) says money should be spent on the line and on cornerbacks. Linebackers are not valued. Philadelphia takes the same approach. Berry was influenced by the Eagles, where he was an assistant GM last season.

    Mack Wilson is in practice this week, so perhaps that helps at linebacker. But he had an so-so rookie year and is coming off a knee injury. Not sure what to expect from him.

    https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/09/what-about-the-browns-defense-and-its-salary-cap-earl-thomas-joe-schobert-hey-terry.html

    @tour2ma said:

    Not just because he agrees with me (although that helps... a lot... 😉  ) here's Terry's reply to a 3-question parlay in today's mailbag...

    OK, so  Berry does not value LBs high because they did not do so in Philly.   

    What does that tell us, considering how poorly this defense has played?   

    Or, better yet....do some  comparison:    To the hated Steelers.   I say that our DL, and our defensive backfield (when healthy)  are at least the equal or better than  the Spermsuckers  DL and DB crew.  The difference?  They DO place great emphasis on their LBs....and have invested heavily in them. Several first rounders...including TJ Watt...and Devin Bush and Bud Dupree.     And where does their defense rank compared to ours?    They rank 5th best in pts. against,  Browns rank 29th. 

    OK, so Berry emphasized offense, and having money for the future to sign key players is certainly critical. You cannot really argue with that.  So now we have to try to outscore teams, but that can't happen as much as we would like (see Ravens game).   Still...do you know what having bad defense gets you?  Losses.  Lost games, lost jobs for GMs and coaches. 

    So...the message that seems to be coming through is that Berry seems likely to be willing to sacrifice this season for the sake of those key factors: offense and money for the future.  Defense...and with it...playoff contention can come later, apparently. 

    Does that seem fair?   I know a lot of moves have been made on the defensive side....but were those the best we could do? Is rejection of higher profile defensive players that could seemingly help this team:  Thomas, Matthews, others, seem like the right philosophy? 

    And should we expect a Steeler like approach to the Defense, particularly LBs come next draft?