Regrading the draft.....3 years on
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I think the statement that "you can't judge a draft for at least 3 years" is pretty much spot on. So what I am going to do here is to reassess the 2011 draft...since that is essentially 3 years on....and see which teams did best and which did worst. I am going to use a statistic that I have used a number of times before: the Pro-Football-Reference Career Production Average stat. Again, that stat boils down a players career productivity to a single number that supposedly gauges a player overall career contribution. For this I am simply adding up the CAs of every player taken by a team in a draft.
This compilation does not account for trades, FAs, UDFAs, whether that player stayed with the drafting team... So here is each team's score from the 2011 draft:
Seattle 141....contributors include Richard Sherman, KJ Wright, James Carpenter
Denver 125...contributors include Von Miller, Orlando Franklin, Julius Thomas
Houston 123...contributors: JJ Watt, Brooks Reed
Dallas 116....contributors: DeMarco Murray, Tyrone Smith
Cincinnati 111...contributors Andy Dalton, AJ Green
Buffalo 97
Cleveland 96...contributors: Taylor, Sheard, Cameron, Little, Skrine, Pinkston
Tennessee 94
San Francisco 93
Arizona 91
Washington 87
Atlanta 81
New England 80
San Diego 79
Kansas City 77
Carolina 72
Miami 72
Philadelphia 67
Baltimore 64
Oakland 62
Green Bay 60
Chicago 59
Minnesota 59
Pittsburgh 59
New Orleans 57
St. Louis 56
Tampa Bay 49
NY Giants 39
Indianapolis 38 Anthony Costanzo best pick
Jacksonville 37 Cecil Shorts/Gabbert
NY Jets 35 Jeremy Kerley best pock
Detroit 31 Nick Fairley best pick
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FYI the "Top Ten picks of that year" based on production have been :
JJ Watt 64 CA
Cam Newton 59
Richard Sherman 55 (5th round)
Patrick Peterson 53
Von Miller 43
AJ Green 43
Tyrone Smith 43
DeMarco Murray 43 (3rd round)
Julio Jones 40
Marcel Dareus 38
Justin Houston 38 (3rd round)
Jaball Sheard has been most productive Brown with a 25 score.
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Here is the same compilation for the next year's draft 2012. There is a major surprise. But the one that is not a surprise is that for the second year the Seahawks again had the best draft in the league. Two years in a row supposedly.. (and they should have won 2 SBs in a row):
Seattle 144 ....Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Sweezy
Indianapolis 108.... Andrew Luck, TY Hilton, Fleener
Minnesota 91 .... Matt Kalil, Harrison Smith
Philadelphia 88.... Fletcher Cox, Nick Foles
Cleveland 87...The Schwartz, Winn/Hughes plus Weeden/TR/James M. Johnson
St. Louis 87
Miami 86
Washington 79
Cincinnati 79
Carolina 75
Tampa Bay 69
Houston 63
Buffalo 60
NY Jets 60
Baltimore 58
New England 56
Pittsburgh 54
Denver 53
Tennessee 48
San Diego 47
Kansas City 43
Jacksonville 42
Arizona 40 (would have been 44 but they gave Ryan Lindley a -4 points)
Detroit 37
Chicago 37
Atlanta 34
NY Giants 32
Green Bay 30
New Orleans 28
Dallas 26
Oakland 20
San Francisco 12 (rough times could be ahead for the Bay area)
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So, what I don't know is how accurate these rankings of drafted players productivity can be.
Certainly Seattle being on top of the heap both years is reflected in their performance.
But then the Browns were in the Top Ten both years....and that was not reflected on field....unless going from 4-12 to 7-9 is a trend....but then certain "main cogs" have faltered.....esp. Weeden/TR
I think the main key is that yes.....you can have several fairly productive players.....but if one of them is not a QB... you may still be SOL. See the post below. If you have a Newton, Wilson, Luck....that is all essential
(all with Division winning/playoff teams)
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The Top Ten Producers from the 2012 draft:
Russell Wilson 49
Andrew Luck 42
Luke Kuechley 40
RGIII 32 (started very strong)
Ryan Tannehill 32
Bobby Wagner 32
Dontari Poe 29
TY Hilton 29
Lavonte David 25
Alshon Jeffrey 25
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Our drafts have not been complete busts, but the first round and our attempts to find a QB have been brutal. How could we pass on Julio Jones? How could we pick so many QB's that failed to make the grade?
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Our drafts have not been complete busts, but the first round and our attempts to find a QB have been brutal. How could we pass on Julio Jones? How could we pick so many QB's that failed to make the grade?
Our drafts have not been complete busts, but the first round and our attempts to find a QB have been brutal. How could we pass on Julio Jones? How could we pick so many QB's that failed to make the grade?
The Julio Jones trade doesn't bother me - that kid has yet to play a full season healthy. However the picks resulting from the deal with Atlanta have bothered me.
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Our drafts have not been complete busts, but the first round and our attempts to find a QB have been brutal. How could we pass on Julio Jones? How could we pick so many QB's that failed to make the grade?
The Julio Jones trade doesn't bother me - that kid has yet to play a full season healthy. However the picks resulting from the deal with Atlanta have bothered me.
The Julio Jones trade doesn't bother me - that kid has yet to play a full season healthy. However the picks resulting from the deal with Atlanta have bothered me.
But that's (JJ's injuries) making a pick with hindsight. JJ is one of the premiere WR's (talent) in the league and should not have been passed over. What does our first round busts and misses say about our talent evaluation and scouting teams?
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The Julio Jones trade doesn't bother me - that kid has yet to play a full season healthy. However the picks resulting from the deal with Atlanta have bothered me.
But that's (JJ's injuries) making a pick with hindsight. JJ is one of the premiere WR's (talent) in the league and should not have been passed over. What does our first round busts and misses say about our talent evaluation and scouting teams?
. What does our first round busts and misses say about our talent evaluation and scouting teams?
What if you just got a new job and everyone kept bitching about and blaming you for shit that happened before you were even hired?.....always blaming YOU for the last guys screw ups?....over and over again....
Our talent evaluation and scouting team was just hired last year and has one draft under their belt. They dont "keep" doing anything, because they've only done it once....why can't people get this????....is it that hard?
And it usually takes 3 years(at least) to evaluate their picks.....(most of which look pretty good right now)......but the league, on average, only hits on about 30% of the 1st round and even lower in the later rounds.....Farmers hit on more, so far and the first still haven't shown out yet......if Gilbert is good, then we are WAY ahead of the curve for only 1 years worth of picks
So, come back in three years or go where ever the people are that you're complaining about, because they dont work here anymore
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. What does our first round busts and misses say about our talent evaluation and scouting teams?
What if you just got a new job and everyone kept bitching about and blaming you for shit that happened before you were even hired?.....always blaming YOU for the last guys screw ups?....over and over again....
Our talent evaluation and scouting team was just hired last year and has one draft under their belt. They dont "keep" doing anything, because they've only done it once....why can't people get this????....is it that hard?
And it usually takes 3 years(at least) to evaluate their picks.....(most of which look pretty good right now)......but the league, on average, only hits on about 30% of the 1st round and even lower in the later rounds.....Farmers hit on more, so far and the first still haven't shown out yet......if Gilbert is good, then we are WAY ahead of the curve for only 1 years worth of picks
So, come back in three years or go where ever the people are that you're complaining about, because they dont work here anymore
What if you just got a new job and everyone kept bitching about and blaming you for shit that happened before you were even hired?.....always blaming YOU for the last guys screw ups?....over and over again....
Our talent evaluation and scouting team was just hired last year and has one draft under their belt. They dont "keep" doing anything, because they've only done it once....why can't people get this????....is it that hard?
And it usually takes 3 years(at least) to evaluate their picks.....(most of which look pretty good right now)......but the league, on average, only hits on about 30% of the 1st round and even lower in the later rounds.....Farmers hit on more, so far and the first still haven't shown out yet......if Gilbert is good, then we are WAY ahead of the curve for only 1 years worth of picks
So, come back in three years or go where ever the people are that you're complaining about, because they dont work here anymore
Well, that is why I went back 3-4 years....to assess what happened then.
I don't know if 30% success rate in the first round is quite accurate. I think it might be a bit better than that. (unless you mean 30% of Browns draft picks....then it is probably worse!
Here are hits, misses from 2011 first round:
2011 1 1 Cam Newton QB CAR 2011 2014 0 2 4 59 62 62 30-31-1 1144 1923 14426 82 54 467 2571 33 1 33 0 Auburn
2 2011 1 2 Von Miller LB DEN 2011 2014 1 3 4 43 56 56 1 49.0 Texas A&M 3 2011 1
3 Marcell Dareus DT BUF 2011 2014 1 2 4 38 63 60 28.5 Alabama 4 2011 1
4 A.J. Green WR CIN 2011 2014 0 4 4 43 60 60 11 93 0 329 4874 35 Georgia 5 2011 1
5 Patrick Peterson DB ARI 2011 2014 2 4 4 53 64 64 1 1 17 0 0 7 34 0 10 64 0 15 2.0 LSU 6 2011 1
6 Julio Jones WR ATL 2011 2014 0 2 3 40 49 48 14 94 0 278 4330 26 Alabama 7 2011 1
7 Aldon Smith DE SFO 2011 2014 1 1 1 25 50 30 1 44.0 Missouri 8 2011 1
8 Jake Locker QB TEN 2011 2014 0 0 1 15 30 23 9-14-0 408 709 4967 27 22 95 644 5 Washington 9 2011 1
9 Tyron Smith OL DAL 2011 2014 1 2 4 43 63 63 USC 10 2011 1
10 Blaine Gabbert QB JAX 2011 2014 0 0 2 8 29 27 5-22-0 417 784 4395 23 24 76 191 0 Missouri
11 J.J. Watt DE HOU 2011 2014 3 3 4 64 64 64 3 4 3 1 57.0 Wisconsin 12 2011 1
12 Christian Ponder QB MIN 2011 2014 0 0 3 22 38 36 14-21-1 632 1057 6658 38 36 126 639 7 1 -15 0 Florida St. 13 2011 1
13 Nick Fairley DT DET 2011 2014 0 0 1 16 46 30 13.5 Auburn 14 2011 1
14 Robert Quinn DE STL 2011 2014 1 2 3 35 63 47 45.0 North Carolina 15 2011 1
15 Mike Pouncey OL MIA 2011 2014 0 2 4 30 58 58 Florida 16 2011 1
16 Ryan Kerrigan DE WAS 2011 2014 0 1 3 29 64 64 2 38.0 Purdue 17 2011 1
17 Nate Solder OL NWE 2011 2014 0 0 3 28 63 60 Colorado 18 2011 1
18 Corey Liuget DT SDG 2011 2014 0 0 4 27 63 61 18.0 Illinois 19 2011 1
19 Prince Amukamara DB NYG 2011 2014 0 0 2 13 44 35 6 Nebraska
20 Adrian Clayborn DL TAM 2011 2014 0 0 2 13 36 36 13.0 Iowa 21 2011 1
21 Phil Taylor DL CLE 2011 2014 0 0 2 19 44 42 7.0 Baylor 22 2011 1
22 Anthony Castonzo OL IND 2011 2014 0 0 4 29 60 60 1 1 1 Boston Col. 23 2011 1
23 Danny Watkins OL PHI 2011 2013 0 0 1 9 26 18 Baylor 24 2011 1
24 Cameron Jordan DE NOR 2011 2014 0 1 3 32 64 63 1 29.0 California 25 2011 1
25 James Carpenter OL SEA 2011 2014 0 0 2 20 45 39 Alabama 26 2011 1
26 Jonathan Baldwin WR KAN 2011 2013 0 0 0 4 33 11 44 607 2 Pittsburgh 27 2011 1
27 Jimmy Smith DB BAL 2011 2014 0 0 1 12 48 29 5 Colorado 28 2011 1
28 Mark Ingram RB NOR 2011 2014 0 1 1 18 50 21 582 2426 20 53 288 0 Alabama 29 2011 1
29 Gabe Carimi OL CHI 2011 2014 0 0 0 14 48 26 Wisconsin 30 2011 1
30 Muhammad Wilkerson DT NYJ 2011 2014 0 0 4 7 61 60 1 24.5 Temple Misc Games
31 Cameron Heyward
32. Derrock Sherrod
I only see what you can classify as sure fire busts about 5 players on this list: Gabbert, Ponder, Baldwin,Watkins, Sherrod.
Fourteen of the thirty two made at least one Pro Bowl. That is like 44%.
Plus, all but perhaps those 5 I mention have been reasonably solid starters. Including Phil Taylor.
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I do think however that you may be more right on with your assessment of the 2012 draft as a 30% success rate
Only 6 players from that draft made the Pro Bowl....compared to 14 the year before. Plus there are about double the bona fide busts:
TR
Blackmon
Morris Claiborne
Dre Kirkpatrick
Weeden
Nick Perry
AJ Jenkins
David Wilson
Shae McLellin.
And we may eventually have to throw RGIII in there if he doesn't get it together.
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