Browns Draft Strategy beginning in 2016
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So we have 4 compensatory picks right? Lost Cameron, Skrine, Sheard, Hoyer, Rubin, and Austin but added Housler (yikes) and Williams.
Over The Cap projects us with 3 5th round compensatory picks and one in the 7th. We all THOUGHT that this (2015) draft would be the one we would draft less guys than we had picks for going on, but we ended up drafting MORE. So you would think this year they'll finally go with just a select few guys.
Wish list:
1. QB-So, any of the following scenarios could happen:
A. Johnny plays, we draft a QB
B. Johnny doesn't play, we draft a QB
C. Johnny plays, we don't draft a QB
D. Johnny doesn't play, we don't draft a QB
The possibilities are endless because he could play and do well enough to warrant not taking a QB or he could suck and we have to take one. Or McCown does well enough that Johnny doesn't play BUT the staff still likes his progress and feels we don't need a QB.
Of course all this analysis is further muddied by the fact that some in the office may feel that this is a once-every-few-years type of QB class. Moving on...
CONTINGENT ON: Staff's view of Manziel's development (whether he plays or not), McCown's play (if he plays well then maybe we think we can wait a year), how the board breaks (are there any decent QBs left when we pick), and lastly, whether a defensive position becomes an absolute NEED due to this or that.
2. Elite OLB-I'm either taking an OLB in the 1st round (ie we don't draft a QB OR we have two 1st rounders again) or not until later in the draft. OLB is contingent on QB, but also on how well our guys do this year. Orchard, Solomon, etc. may show well enough to make this pick unnecessary.
CONTINGENT ON: The play of Mingo, Orchard, and Solomon, whether we need a QB or not.
3. DE-I'm good with one in the 2nd round. This need can also be negated by the play of our guys this year (I suppose they all can).
CONTINGENT ON: The performance of Cooper and the Bryant's.
4. WR-I'm good with one in either of the first 2 rounds. I'm only taking one in the 1st if I have good QB play this year. IF that happens, then this probably probably shoots up to #1, as we can field a great defense without adding a top flight DE or OLB, but a great receiver could be a big difference maker with the offensive tools we already have (again only IF the QB looks good).
CONTINGENT ON: Us not needing a QB, whether a defensive position becomes an absolute NEED, the play of Pryor, and how the staff feels about Gordon.
5. Pick em, RB/TE/S-If our backs are average again, take a RB in the first three rounds. Hopefully none are taken in the 1st round as in 2013 and 2014.
If our TEs don't prove themselves, take a TE in the first three. Same with Campbell/other young safeties. Gotta have someone ready to replace Whitner in due time.
CONTINGENT ON: Performance at those positions.
Non-needs (this isn't to say don't draft one at all, but no need to use a high pick on one):
1. OL-Right?
2. ILB-Dansby is getting older but I love what we have in Kirksey and Robertson
3. DT-Danny Shelton, nuff said
4. CB
5. FB-Maybe it becomes a need (though doubtful), but you're not using anywhere near a top pick on one
Non-needs (this isn't to say don't draft one at all, but no need to use a high pick on one):
1. OL-Right?
Did Mack stay or go? If he stayed, then less reason to go "high".
Did we resign both Greco and Schwartz? If so, then two less reasons to go "high".
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Dang I didn't realize those two were up as well. But yes that would be correct. Don't let the OL fall off. What did you think of the rest?
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Dang I didn't realize those two were up as well. But yes that would be correct. Don't let the OL fall off. What did you think of the rest?
Dang I didn't realize those two were up as well. But yes that would be correct. Don't let the OL fall off. What did you think of the rest?
Bit convoluted, but I think we end up in the same place, i.e., never take a FB in Round 1...
Hard for me to go deeper now as I don't have a good feel for the talent level in the upcoming, 2016 draft to develop a BPA counterbalance to your needs analysis. I'm very much in the camp of looking at the intersection of those two sets for players.
I think we take a QB next year. Question is when? And that is very much Josh-performance/Johnny-perception dependent. One of my guiding draft principle is "you always look for your next QB." How hard, and often, you look depends on your current QB situation.
At a minimum I invest a mid-ish round pick every other year in a QB I think has a chance to be good. In past years my guys were Nick Foles and AJ McCarron. Also Tannehill, but then he caught fire and rocketed to the top of teams' boards... I wasn't that convinced... shame on me...
Beyond that, on a pure, needs basis:
- OLB - As you likely know by now, your OLB emphasis is near and dear to my heart. My dream of a 3-down, impact OLB lives on...
- DE - Not sure I see the need to invest high here... not in the Pet/O'Neil scheme. Undersized DTs can fill need here and come cheap... but if a supertalent was available...
- WR - Gordon's return really muddies things up here. So far, so good with his most recent suspension. I really have to see this year's corps.
- RB - Really hinges on Duke's health and development as he is our youthiest youth...
- TE - Hinges on Bibbs/ Johnson impact.
- S_ - Gip's health and return to form atop your SS questions.
- OL - Joe's continued good health would forestall heavy investment another year, but loss of any of the three I mentioned in my previous reply would hasten it. Our inability to date to significantly develop middling talent is becoming a concern.
- NT - We're not going into 2015 with the quality depth I thought we would.
- ILB - Pullard in the 63 helps here.
- CB - With Framer's UDFA track record, I'm not sweating this position... plus there's Ekpre-Olomu's debut next year...
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Farmer blew it in the first round last year passing on Khalil Mack, Mike Evans and could have had Garapollo, Carr or Bridgewater
But it's passed. I do like Shelton, Erving, Cooper, and Gaines and believe next year will be the year of Cardale Jones and a wide receiver.
So far, Kevin White and Davanta Parker would have done us no good. So someone light a fire under Dwane Bowe because he looked bad against Tampa.
Memo to Pettine: Let Crowell carry the rock! Stop rotating with West and let Crowell get into a rhythm! And then use Duke Johnson like Sproles and Vereen. If Duke ever gets on the field.
So far, Kevin White and Davanta Parker would have done us no good. So someone light a fire under Dwane Bowe because he looked bad against Tampa.
Let's not forget that Bowe hasn't been practicing for a few weeks (and one pass was thrown well behind him) In time he will show improvement. I think he can truly be our #1 this year and when that happens, you'll really see this team improve.
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We don't have a receiver on our roster that would be a number 1 on any other team except for possibly the Panthers because Benjamin got hurt. And on many teams Detroit, Indy, Giants, Broncos, etc wouldn't be their #2.
Well since Hawkins, as a slot guy, isn't eligible to be a #1, you can't compare. He is easily a top 10 slit guy in the league. And our guys aren't good because we have a great 1, they're good because we've got three guys who would be 2s, despite your disbelief. I posted it before, Gabriel was a top 20 receiver last year. You would rather loathe in misery than look at it.
Well since Hawkins, as a slot guy, isn't eligible to be a #1, you can't compare. He is easily a top 10 slit guy in the league. And our guys aren't good because we have a great 1, they're good because we've got three guys who would be 2s, despite your disbelief. I posted it before, Gabriel was a top 20 receiver last year. You would rather loathe in misery than look at it.
Guy caught 36 balls and had 1 TD, puff puff pass. Chiefs didn't want Bowe, the Dolphins didn't want Hartline, and we aren't talking about the Rice/Taylor 49ers. I get the positivity cause the Browns are still tied for first but it just isn't reality.
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Well since Hawkins, as a slot guy, isn't eligible to be a #1, you can't compare. He is easily a top 10 slit guy in the league. And our guys aren't good because we have a great 1, they're good because we've got three guys who would be 2s, despite your disbelief. I posted it before, Gabriel was a top 20 receiver last year. You would rather loathe in misery than look at it.
Guy caught 36 balls and had 1 TD, puff puff pass. Chiefs didn't want Bowe, the Dolphins didn't want Hartline, and we aren't talking about the Rice/Taylor 49ers. I get the positivity cause the Browns are still tied for first but it just isn't reality.
Guy caught 36 balls and had 1 TD, puff puff pass. Chiefs didn't want Bowe, the Dolphins didn't want Hartline, and we aren't talking about the Rice/Taylor 49ers. I get the positivity cause the Browns are still tied for first but it just isn't reality.
Spot on.
Just take a look at those Pro Bowl WR's in Seattle and New England.
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Guy caught 36 balls and had 1 TD, puff puff pass. Chiefs didn't want Bowe, the Dolphins didn't want Hartline, and we aren't talking about the Rice/Taylor 49ers. I get the positivity cause the Browns are still tied for first but it just isn't reality.
Spot on.
Just take a look at those Pro Bowl WR's in Seattle and New England.
Spot on.
Just take a look at those Pro Bowl WR's in Seattle and New England.
Tom Brady, Russell Wilson & Josh Mccown
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The QB has to actually hit him for him to get stars. They are a pointless metric when Hoyer is your QB. Name 10 slot receivers better than Hawkins.
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The QB has to actually hit him for him to get stars. They are a pointless metric when Hoyer is your QB. Name 10 slot receivers better than Hawkins.
The QB has to actually hit him for him to get stars. They are a pointless metric when Hoyer is your QB. Name 10 slot receivers better than Hawkins.
While I think you are actually on the same page as Farmer, that the whole is greater than the sum of it's parts, I just think you need more than slot receivers and burners. You need that guy with great speed who can win 50/50 balls and require the other team to be honest in it's coverage. Now Brady, Rodgers, Luck and whomever else we want to classify as "elite" QBs can work with a little less or if you have a Shady Mccoy back there to do damage you can survive. Unfortunately the Browns have a career backup and a RB by committee that may add an aging veteran to the mix cause the rookie can't get on the field. While Josh Gordon doesn't make this team Superbowl contenders it takes some of the heat off the QB and keeps the D guessing where the ball can go.
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Spot on.
Just take a look at those Pro Bowl WR's in Seattle and New England.
Tom Brady, Russell Wilson & Josh Mccown
Tom Brady, Russell Wilson & Josh Mccown
And McCown would have been our QB regardless of what shiny hood ornament WR we drafted.
So tell me...what was your point?
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Tom Brady, Russell Wilson & Josh Mccown
And McCown would have been our QB regardless of what shiny hood ornament WR we drafted.
So tell me...what was your point?
And McCown would have been our QB regardless of what shiny hood ornament WR we drafted.
So tell me...what was your point?
Point is the examples you used as to successful teams without that prototypical #1 have a very good QBs. If you have a great QB you can survive with lesser talent at the skill positions.
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And if you have lesser talent at QB the receivers don't matter, so pretty much it boils down to receivers don't matter.
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And if you have lesser talent at QB the receivers don't matter, so pretty much it boils down to receivers don't matter.
And if you have lesser talent at QB the receivers don't matter, so pretty much it boils down to receivers don't matter.
Not true AJ Green and Julio Jones make their respective offenses a lot better. I'll be interested to see how Carr performs with a #1,
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And McCown would have been our QB regardless of what shiny hood ornament WR we drafted.
So tell me...what was your point?
Point is the examples you used as to successful teams without that prototypical #1 have a very good QBs. If you have a great QB you can survive with lesser talent at the skill positions.
Point is the examples you used as to successful teams without that prototypical #1 have a very good QBs. If you have a great QB you can survive with lesser talent at the skill positions.
The examples I used were the examples of the last two Super Bowl teams.
So what you're saying a #1 WR isn't needed for a Super Bowl run. I'm glad you could clear that up, now I get what your point was.
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And if you have lesser talent at QB the receivers don't matter, so pretty much it boils down to receivers don't matter.
Not true AJ Green and Julio Jones make their respective offenses a lot better. I'll be interested to see how Carr performs with a #1,
Not true AJ Green and Julio Jones make their respective offenses a lot better. I'll be interested to see how Carr performs with a #1,
Yet the Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-6 in the postseason since drafting their studly weapons.
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And if you have lesser talent at QB the receivers don't matter, so pretty much it boils down to receivers don't matter.
Not true AJ Green and Julio Jones make their respective offenses a lot better. I'll be interested to see how Carr performs with a #1,
Not true AJ Green and Julio Jones make their respective offenses a lot better.
If Julio makes his offense better, why do the Browns have a better record over the last 2 years than the Falcons?
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Not true AJ Green and Julio Jones make their respective offenses a lot better. I'll be interested to see how Carr performs with a #1,
Yet the Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-6 in the postseason since drafting their studly weapons.
Yet the Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-6 in the postseason since drafting their studly weapons.
Yet in the playoffs.
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Not true AJ Green and Julio Jones make their respective offenses a lot better.
If Julio makes his offense better, why do the Browns have a better record over the last 2 years than the Falcons?
If Julio makes his offense better, why do the Browns have a better record over the last 2 years than the Falcons?
Falcons have no defense.
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Our passing attack was better in 2013 with Josh Gordon than it was in 2014 without him.
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Our passing attack was better in 2013 with Josh Gordon than it was in 2014 without him.
Our passing attack was better in 2013 with Josh Gordon than it was in 2014 without him.
Oddly it seemed better in 2014 without him than in 2014 with him.
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