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Cleveland +10 on 1/16 and the other division playoff games.....one more step.

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  • mjp28M mjp28 wrote on
    #2

    Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

    What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

    GO BUCKEYES, BROWNS, INDIANS, CAVS, YSU, NAVY and yes I like ND!
    The GipperT T Tour2maT 3 Replies
  • mjp28M mjp28

    Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

    What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

    The GipperT The Gipper wrote on
    #3

    @mjp28 said:

    Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

    What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

    Yes, it should be the other way around.   Baltimore should be + 10 and Cleveland should be +2. 

  • mjp28M mjp28

    Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

    What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

    T TexasAg1969 wrote on
    #4

    @mjp28 said:

    Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

    What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

    Vegas is usually closer than most think. See how far the line moves and that will give you an idea what the pro bettors are doing. I think the lines are right about where they should be. They haven't moved much from the opening lines.

  • mjp28M mjp28

    Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

    What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

    Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on
    #5

    @mjp28 said:

    Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

    What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

    With KC's penchant for close games it looks like it to me.

    Home-field is usually worth about -3 for the home team... even with reduced crowd due to Covid that held. So Vegas is discounting BUF's advantage by 33%. 😉 ... and BUF ain't no creampuff.

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
  • ATOMA ATOM wrote on
    #6

    moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

    Tour2maT mjp28M 2 Replies
  • ATOMA ATOM

    moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

    Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on
    #7

    @atom said:

    moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

    Is that straight to win, i.e., no points?

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
  • Tour2maT Tour2ma

    @atom said:

    moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

    Is that straight to win, i.e., no points?

    ATOMA ATOM wrote on
    #8

    @tour2ma said:

    Is that straight to win, i.e., no points?

    yep and i am taking that bet same as i did vs ptg and i think that paid +225

    F 1 Reply
  • ATOMA ATOM

    moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

    mjp28M mjp28 wrote on
    #9

    @atom said:

    moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

    From Vegas insiders which shows various sports books, DraftKings is +410 just FYI.   https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money

    Screenshot_2021-01-12_195843.jpg

    GO BUCKEYES, BROWNS, INDIANS, CAVS, YSU, NAVY and yes I like ND!
  • mjp28M mjp28

    @atom said:

    moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

    From Vegas insiders which shows various sports books, DraftKings is +410 just FYI.   https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money

    Screenshot_2021-01-12_195843.jpg

    ATOMA ATOM wrote on
    #10

    @mjp28 said:

    From Vegas insiders which shows various sports books, DraftKings is +410 just FYI.   https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money

    Screenshot_2021-01-12_195843.jpg

    whoa thats better 

    👍
  • ATOMA ATOM

    @mjp28 said:

    From Vegas insiders which shows various sports books, DraftKings is +410 just FYI.   https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money

    Screenshot_2021-01-12_195843.jpg

    whoa thats better 

    T TexasAg1969 wrote on
    #11

    @atom said:

    whoa thats better 

    My advice with your first game win? 

    😂
  • Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on
    #12

    So what have we learned here today, kids?

    It pays to shop for odds....

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
  • ATOMA ATOM

    @tour2ma said:

    Is that straight to win, i.e., no points?

    yep and i am taking that bet same as i did vs ptg and i think that paid +225

    F Footbalfan1962 wrote on
    #13

    @atom said:

    yep and i am taking that bet same as i did vs ptg and i think that paid +225

    If you got money to gamble that is fine...but obviously your betting with you heart ,,if I was gambling strictly to make money I would take the Ravens  +110 before I would take the Browns

    T 1 Reply
  • S Silver slayer wrote on
    #14

    Okay research shows the following. 

    Baltimore is #1 in rushing yards per game @191.9 per

    Buff ranks 20th @ 107.7

    Rushing defensive 

    Baltimore ranks 8th @ 108.8

    Buff gives up a boat load ranking 17th @ 119.6 

    2 team M/L parlay 

    Rats win outright 

    Brown's win outright 

    9.46/1

  • F Footbalfan1962

    @atom said:

    yep and i am taking that bet same as i did vs ptg and i think that paid +225

    If you got money to gamble that is fine...but obviously your betting with you heart ,,if I was gambling strictly to make money I would take the Ravens  +110 before I would take the Browns

    T TexasAg1969 wrote on
    #15

    @footbalfan1962 said:

    If you got money to gamble that is fine...but obviously your betting with you heart ,,if I was gambling strictly to make money I would take the Ravens  +110 before I would take the Browns

    Which is why I posted "Take the Money and Run". It's one thing to get real lucky with a long shot. It's another to give it all back on another.?

  • gumby73G gumby73 wrote on
    #16

    Games like this, I keep looking at that 56 over the total score... I may slide a few bones on over that total.. Keep shocking the world Browns !

    Browns & Buffett: Got to go fishin, Down to rock bottom again, with just a few Friends
    T S 2 Replies
  • gumby73G gumby73

    Games like this, I keep looking at that 56 over the total score... I may slide a few bones on over that total.. Keep shocking the world Browns !

    T TexasAg1969 wrote on
    #17

    @gumby73 said:

    Games like this, I keep looking at that 56 over the total score... I may slide a few bones on over that total.. Keep shocking the world Browns !

    Now that would be an excellent bet. LV has that off by at least 10 or more IMO. We shall see.

  • T TexasAg1969

    @gumby73 said:

    Games like this, I keep looking at that 56 over the total score... I may slide a few bones on over that total.. Keep shocking the world Browns !

    Now that would be an excellent bet. LV has that off by at least 10 or more IMO. We shall see.

    Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on
    #18

    @texasag1969 said:

    Now that would be an excellent bet. LV has that off by at least 10 or more IMO. We shall see.

    Weather looks good enough that it will not prevent a scorefest.

    General comment... usually the quality/competitiveness of the 2nd weekend of playoffs tends to disappoint... especially after a great opening weekend. I don't think that will be the case this weekend. The matchups looks awesome.

    • Rams D vs GB's O...
    • BLT - BUF slugfest..
    • Bradt vs Brees...
    • and of course us vs the defending Champs.... Ground Stef vs. Air Andy.
    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
  • gumby73G gumby73

    Games like this, I keep looking at that 56 over the total score... I may slide a few bones on over that total.. Keep shocking the world Browns !

    S SdBacker80 wrote on
    #19

    @gumby73 said:

    Games like this, I keep looking at that 56 over the total score... I may slide a few bones on over that total.. Keep shocking the world Browns !

    Screams trap IMO.  It does seem very enticing though.  Our line last game screamed of a trap too.  

    We can and we should ball control it and run more than pass.  
     

    Maybe just Maybe Woods has a few tricks.  He was part of a defensive gameplan that held Mahomes/Reed to 10 points in 3 quarters on Super Sunday.  I know different personnel sorta kinda.  
     

    Maybe you see some KC rust too- these guys havent played meaningful game since their game with the Saints.

    Tour2maT 1 Reply
  • tiamat63T tiamat63 wrote on
    #20

    Checking out stat differentials...

    - Chiefs Oline is still trash in run blocking

    - Defense gives up a ton on the ground 

    It's possible they find the stones to limit the rushing game in the playoffs like last year.   On the other hand, maybe they just get bullied like most of the season?  Either way I'm going to make them prove it by committing the bodies in the box to slow down my Oline and monster RB Duo.

    On Defense? I'm comfortable playing lighter numbers up front and seeing if they're capable and/or willing to establish a running game against my 6&7.   Chiefs LOVE splash plays, we'll see how methodical they're willing to be drive after drive if the Browns deny the home-run shots.

  • tiamat63T tiamat63

    Checking out stat differentials...

    - Chiefs Oline is still trash in run blocking

    - Defense gives up a ton on the ground 

    It's possible they find the stones to limit the rushing game in the playoffs like last year.   On the other hand, maybe they just get bullied like most of the season?  Either way I'm going to make them prove it by committing the bodies in the box to slow down my Oline and monster RB Duo.

    On Defense? I'm comfortable playing lighter numbers up front and seeing if they're capable and/or willing to establish a running game against my 6&7.   Chiefs LOVE splash plays, we'll see how methodical they're willing to be drive after drive if the Browns deny the home-run shots.

    S SdBacker80 wrote on
    #21

    @tiamat63 said:

    Checking out stat differentials...

    - Chiefs Oline is still trash in run blocking

    - Defense gives up a ton on the ground 

    It's possible they find the stones to limit the rushing game in the playoffs like last year.   On the other hand, maybe they just get bullied like most of the season?  Either way I'm going to make them prove it by committing the bodies in the box to slow down my Oline and monster RB Duo.

    On Defense? I'm comfortable playing lighter numbers up front and seeing if they're capable and/or willing to establish a running game against my 6&7.   Chiefs LOVE splash plays, we'll see how methodical they're willing to be drive after drive if the Browns deny the home-run shots.

    I actually worry about thinking too hard about stopping the WRs and Mahomes that the ground game gets going and I worry even more about Hill and Hardiman on runs.


    Their splash plays are usually “broken” Plays.  Mahomes evading pressure running around and the WRs doing a great job flowing to him. Then you have the occasional across his body throw 30-40 yards downfield that defies Good QB play. 

     Not a bad matchup in my opinion.

    I watched the game where the Raiders took them down in Arrowhead with the same type of gameplan we will employ on offense.

    I am really curious how the Falcons held them in check too. 

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