PFF ranks Baker Mayfield tenth best QB heading into 2021

gumby73

@tour2ma said:

Congrats!

HC: Robert Saleh at +2200 caught my eye... NYJ looks set to improve on their 2-14 record... only issue is it is gonna be tough road for NYJ to eek into playoffs. A couple of Saleh's AFCE brethren, Flores +1600, McDermott +1600, look attractive as well, but how can you resist Bill "I'm a Man on a mission with a reloaded roster" Belichick at +1800?

Kliff Kingsbury +2800-------$100.00

DPOY: DL dominate lately (Watt and Donald) so DuPree at +6600 under Vrabel in TN and/or Clowney at same odds.

Chase Young +1200----------$100.00

CBPOY: Teboe +2000, if you have to pick one... word is he's really looking the part of a TE on OTAs and you know Urban loves him.

Christian McCaffrey +850---------$100.00

DROY: LBs rule this one... Cox +4000 next to Parsons in Big D looks enticing.

2nd option... Micah Parsons +500

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah +1400-------------$100.00

OROY: Only position to spoil the recent QB run is RB... Sermon +2000 in SF looks well positioned among the longer shots, but Harris +1000 in PTG deserves strong consideration

2nd option... RB UNC Javonte Williams +1600------- will start in Denver, with a Munchuk coached OL ?
Ja'Marr Chase +800-------------$100.00

MVP (a/k/a The QB Award) : Mayfield +3300 jumps out.

Baker Mayfield +3300------------------$100.00 (only true out of pocket)

That was fun!

Hitting the betting button sometime Monday....

I know me?

I can't trust Tua..and won't trust Dak/Stafford or Burrow coming off those injuries..

Mahomes & or Rogers are about as betting vanilla as choosing Arians & or Andy Reid...and that's just not me...

I can be talked off two..

Ja'marr Chase...just don't see a QB winning this OROY.. Looks to be RB or WR.. guessing i'll trust Burrow more, throwing from behind...

JOK... rotational LB snap counts are concerning...comparing to Parsons, Davis & Paye whom may already have starting depth chart roles.. Call me a homer,...that see's myself rooting Browns..

Tour2ma

@gumby73 said:

(only true out of pocket)

Vegas loves that attytude...

The Gipper

@dutch-oven said:

Dan Marino threw 252 interceptions in 242 games.

Warren Moon threw 233 interceptions in 208 games.

At one time, including there era in which Marino, Moon and Kelly played, a 1:1 TD to Int. ratio was pretty common, even considered good.

calfoxwc

Amazing - Marino and Mayfield - the only two to throw 11,ooo yards their first three years?

https://www.brownsnation.com/mayfield-shares-historic-stats-with-dan-marino-through-3-seasons/

Mayfield Shares Historic Stats With Dan Marino Through 3 Seasons

"In their first 3 seasons, only two players in NFL history have at least 11k pass yds, 75 pass TD, and an 89 passer rating:

Baker Mayfield
Dan Marino

"

tiamat63

@calfoxwc said:

Amazing - Marino and Mayfield - the only two to throw 11,ooo yards their first three years?

https://www.brownsnation.com/mayfield-shares-historic-stats-with-dan-marino-through-3-seasons/

Mayfield Shares Historic Stats With Dan Marino Through 3 Seasons

"In their first 3 seasons, only two players in NFL history have at least 11k pass yds, 75 pass TD, and an 89 passer rating:

Baker Mayfield
Dan Marino

"

Stats like that, meme's and quotes are.... I hesitate to say 'Inaccurate". So I'll say slanted instead. Either way they attempt to generate hype in a way that is rather misleading. Because instead of going off the first full 3 seasons played, they're going off the first 3 seasons in the NFL period. This discounts multiple good QB's in the the last 12-13 years alone.

Rodgers, Mahomes, Luck, and damn near Cam Newton, Matty Ice and Tony Romo. Those are just off the top of my head. I'm sure Russell Wilson was probably pretty close as well.

I'm not saying I'm not excited for the upcoming season and I'm glad to have Baker on this team. But we attempt to place these players up there with historic company and thus their accomplishments to generate that hype.

Pace yourselves, friends. The season is a grind.

The Gipper

@tiamat63 said:

Stats like that, meme's and quotes are.... I hesitate to say 'Inaccurate". So I'll say slanted instead. Either way they attempt to generate hype in a way that is rather misleading. Because instead of going off the first full 3 seasons played, they're going off the first 3 seasons in the NFL period. This discounts multiple good QB's in the the last 12-13 years alone.

Rodgers, Mahomes, Luck, and damn near Cam Newton, Matty Ice and Tony Romo. Those are just off the top of my head. I'm sure Russell Wilson was probably pretty close as well.

I'm not saying I'm not excited for the upcoming season and I'm glad to have Baker on this team. But we attempt to place these players up there with historic company and thus their accomplishments to generate that hype.

Pace yourselves, friends. The season is a grind.

Well....Baker DID hold the rookie record for most TDs in his rookie season, until Justin Herbert broke it this past season. That was not a slanted or inaccurate statistic.

Perhaps a better thing to look at for a young QB is: Which QBs led their teams to a Championship in their first 3 years in the league. Here they are:

Championships won in Year One:

Otto Graham. This applies to both his time in the AAFC and the NFL. He won titles in his first year in both leagues

Bob Waterfield. Won NFL title in his rookie year in 1945 with the Cleveland Rams

Sammy Baugh. Won title his rookie year of 1937 with the Redskins

NO rookie won a Championship in his rookie year in the Super Bowl era

Championships won in Year Two:

Sid Luckman Bears

Kurt Warner Rams (though he played some years in the Arena League, his 1999 SB victory was only his 2d year in the NFL

Tom Brady Pats.

Ben Roethlisberger Steelers

Russell Wilson Seahawks

Championships in Year Three:

Johnny Unitas

Joe Montana

Patrick Mahomes

Every name above either is in or is headed into the PFHOF it would seem (BR/Wilson/Mahomes)

Dutch Oven

Passing stats in the NFL are akin to strikeout totals by pitchers in the MLB.

In comparison to other eras, almost every QB is going to look like Joe Montana just like almost every pitcher looks like Bob Feller now.

I mean, it's a nice fact, but Baker might be in the top 10 QBs in the NFL right now.

tiamat63

@the-gipper said:

Well....Baker DID hold the rookie record for most TDs in his rookie season, until Justin Herbert broke it this past season. That was not a slanted or inaccurate statistic.

That wasn't in the link or meme.

So.......

Tour2ma

I'd prefer a comparison to a QB that won at least one SB...

Tour2ma

@tiamat63 said:

That wasn't in the link or meme.

So.......

That should leave a mark!

But we all know it won't...

calfoxwc

@tiamat63 said:

Stats like that, meme's and quotes are.... I hesitate to say 'Inaccurate". So I'll say slanted instead. Either way they attempt to generate hype in a way that is rather misleading. Because instead of going off the first full 3 seasons played, they're going off the first 3 seasons in the NFL period. This discounts multiple good QB's in the the last 12-13 years alone.

so......Baker started week 3 of his rookie year, started all 16 games in 2019, started all 16 games in 2020...so.... it WAS his first three seasons played, he just didn't start the first two.... and still ranks up there with Marino ........isn't that even a bit MORE impressive?

The Gipper

@tiamat63 said:

That wasn't in the link or meme.

So.......

So.....that is why I gave you more meaningful stats. The rookie TD record and the one on the championships......because that is, after all, what really counts.

Fair to say.

tiamat63

@calfoxwc said:

so......Baker started week 3 of his rookie year, started all 16 games in 2019, started all 16 games in 2020...so.... it WAS his first three seasons played, he just didn't start the first two.... and still ranks up there with Marino ........isn't that even a bit MORE impressive?

Either you've misunderstood my post or I'm misunderstanding yours. My point being is the slant of this particular stat line is exclusionary because it ONLY counts the first 3 seasons in the NFL, played or riding the pine ( example -Rodgers)

If it was first 3 seasons played at the position, it would be a much longer list. Baker has this distinction because he, much like many of rookies, were thrown in the fire very early.

If we want a more apt comparison, going off those first 48 games would produce a more honest stat line.

tiamat63

@the-gipper said:

So.....that is why I gave you more meaningful stats. The rookie TD record and the one on the championships......because that is, after all, what really counts.

Fair to say.

Either of those things were and are irrelevant to this conversation and the stats applied. This would be like me bringing up interception percentage and you going " yeah, but check out Bakers rushing yards". Doesn't factor into this particular discussion.

The Gipper

@tiamat63 said:

Either of those things were and are irrelevant to this conversation and the stats applied. This would be like me bringing up interception percentage and you going " yeah, but check out Bakers rushing yards". Doesn't factor into this particular discussion.

The overall broad topic of discussion seems to me to be: How well does a particular QB perform early in his career.

I think that having the record for most TD as a rookie, or winning a championship in your first 3 years fairly well factors into that overall topic.

i agree with you that the statistic cited, "Dan Marino and Baker Mayfield are the only 2 QBs to do yada yada in their first 3 years" is one of those hyper inclusive stats that are sometime cited that can be meaningless. Kind of like saying "Only 3 players in history ever did stugotz: Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Schmucky Schwartz.....the implication of which is that Schmucky Schwartz can somehow be equated to the other two (when he clearly cannot).

Here is a stat that I hope that Baker and Marino do not end up together on: Great QBs who never won a Championship.

The Gipper

Nevertheless, the question was asked...or it was pointed out that a better metric would be: who did the best through their first 48 games. Here is that stat, See the link:

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/which-quarterback-has-the-most-passing-yards-in-their-first-48-games

Top Ten in Yards

Mahomes, Warner, Stafford, Luck, Bulger, Marino, Watson, Winston, Cousins, Goff.....Baker is 15th.

Top Ten in TDs:

Mahomes, Warner, Marino, Watson, Luck, Stafford, Palmer, Wentz, Carr, Baker...10th

In some other categories for Baker:

Comp. % 10th; Completions 20th, Attempts: 17th; Yards per comp: 15th; Yards per game 15th, TD% 7th, Rating 10th.

Of course, keep in mind the way the game has changed. All these guys who are tops in TDs and yards in their first 48 games played in the 21st century primarily...except Marino. Note that the likes of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw and others didn't make these lists.

The Gipper

Another interesting article on QBs in their first 48 games, for stat geeks.

http://www.footballperspective.com/russell-wilson-and-other-quarterbacks-through-48-starts/

Tour2ma

@calfoxwc said:

isn't that even a bit MORE impressive?

Marino started only 9 games his rookie year... and appeared in only 2 others.

So.... no...

FYI.... the other 6 'Fins starts were divided between Woodley (5) and Don Strock (2).

Tour2ma

@tiamat63 said:

Doesn't factor into this particular discussion.

You say that as if it matters...

Tour2ma

@bob806 said:

I still say Kelly was over rated. Sugar huddle made him.

K-gun, baby...

Many have forgotten that Jim was a star for the Houston Gamblers in the USFL... shit league, but with some very good teams including Houston's.

The Gamblers employed the "Run n shoot" Offense. As much as any it was the forerunner to the "passing league" we enjoy(?) today.