Really Different Take on Our First Round...
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I enjoy the hell out of Fischer's daily analysis. Had to share this one...
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Play The Draft
Market Analysis Thursday, March 26, 2015:*Note: The acronym FRX refers to Play The Drafts proprietary ranking system which takes draft order predictions and private scouting input to develop a moving average on prospect sentiment every day. This FRX Index drives the prospects draft stock value within the Play The Draft
contest.In honor of the kickoff of the first Play The Draft
with the Cleveland Browns contest, lets take a look at the scenarios I think will play out with the Browns two 1st-round picks (#12 and #19) this year, as well as examine the PTD-potential from it, because the two players I have in mind for them could yield around $2M total in PTD-portfolio gains on draft day from where their current FRX is at nowif Im right.First, lets set the scene on the Browns mindset for these two 1st-round picksfrom my perspective.
Does everyone remember that the Browns were sitting in first place mid-season in 2014? They got out to a 6-3 start, leading the division on and off along the way, and eventually hit a 7-4 record. Just three wins in their final five games would have put them into playoff and division title position. However, the Browns lost their final five games in-a-row, and gone with it was any hope at the playoffsor even a winning record. It was the most wins (7) the team has had in a season in the past seven years, but because of the way it endedany positive vibe coming into 2015 has taken a hit. All that said, lets not lose sight that this is a team with a decent foundation, and a great head coach.
For my money, Mike Pettine is one of the 5-10 best coaches in the NFL. He is one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, and one of the more refreshingly honest coaches Ive come across in years. Their defense is going to be fine regardless as long as Pettine is there. They dont need to reach for a defensive player in the first round of the draft.
There were times last year where the Browns, at full strength, were flashing as one of the best defenses in the NFL. They fell victim to untimely injuries and poor QB play late more than anything. What the Browns-D did to Andrew Luck in Week-14 was jaw-dropping (for most of that contest). The Browns run defense was rated one of the worst in 2014, but that overlooks their brilliance in stopping opposing passing games. Ultimately, the Browns defense was 9th best in the NFL in points allowed last season. The defense is the Browns strength right now.
You cannot feel that their O-Line is a major crisis to be dealt with in the draft, as the Browns used a revolving door of RBs to success all throughout the season. This was a team that ultimately dumped Ben Tate mid-season, and started rookie RBs from Towson (Terrance West) and Alabama State (Isaiah Crowell)and both youngsters did acceptable-to-good jobs given the circumstances.
Of all the draft needs the Browns have, I (and most everyone) suspects it comes down to what they lost with Johnny Manziel flopping and Josh Gordon getting suspended. They are lacking real playmakers at QB and WR. The Browns offense scored the sixth lowest points per game in the NFL last season. Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline are nice-ish additions, but are not game changers at WR. Sitting at the #12 spot means the Browns may have a choice of several stellar WR prospects from this draft, but one I have in mind just became in play for them as of yesterday.
With this set up in mind, lets now look at specific players for each of the Browns two 1st-round picks
What the Browns will do at pick #12:
There is talk of Phil Taylor playing nose tackle in 2015, and Mike Pettine is a make due kind of defensive coachoften unearthing defensive talent under rocks that others missed. So you wouldnt think nose tackle is a must need with a high pick like #12, but I think they would at least pause to think about taking Washington DT prospect Danny Shelton (10.0 FRX, $2.4M PTD-value, 11.1% PTD-owned) if he fell to them. Shelton is a very athletic, active behemoth to anchor the middle of a 3-4 D-Line. However, I dont think Shelton will still be available by pick #12.
To me, this pick is going to be a WR. I might not have thought that 24 hours ago, but there was a game-changing event yesterday. Central Florida WR Breshad Perriman (42.0 FRX, $955K PTD-value, 20.5% PTD-owned) ran 40-times at his Pro Day in the 4.2s with some claiming 4.1s on one of his attempts. Mel Kiper has been projecting Perriman as a top-20 pick for weeks, before this Pro Day lightning bolt. Perriman is going to be a top-20 guy for most mock drafters ahead; you would think.
The Browns could have some interesting choices at WR come the #12 pick. Amari Cooper might fall in their lap, which would be sensational for them, but is unlikely to happen. DeVante Parker should be available as an option, and now Perriman becomes a legit discussion point within the top-15. I dont think the Browns will select Dorial Green-Beckhamafter the off-field debacles with last years #1 picks: Johnny Manziel and Justin Gilbert, much less all that has taken place with Josh Gordon. It may come down to Parker or Perriman at #12.
If mock drafters universally begin pushing Perriman into the top-15, then there is approx. $800-900K to be made in your Play The Draft
portfolio over the next few weeks with him. If Perriman is the actual #12 pick on draft day, its a cool $1M+ in PTD-gains from where Perriman is PTD-valued today.Regardless of whether you buy Perriman to the Browns or not, he is now the must own stock in Play The Draft
after his headline grabbing Pro Day 40-times.What the Browns will do at pick #19:
I may be one of a handful that believes this, but I think the Browns will draft UCLA QB Brett Hundley (49.8 FRX, $833K PTD-value, 12.5% PTD-owned) at #19.
My logic is as follows: There are only three QBs worth discussing in the 1st-round of the draftWinston-Mariota-Hundley. By the time the Browns pick #12, only Hundley will remain available.
Marcus Mariota comes with a lot of questions/is not the right offensive fit for the Browns. So I suspect they would not trade up for him if he falls a little. Hundley should be there come pick #19, and while most see him as a 2nd-rounder, I would say the QB position is too critical to get cute on valuation. The QB with the best chance to be a franchise guy at pick #19 is Brett Hundleyand you have to pay up for it if you think there is a strong-to-decent chance he could be a fixture.
All Hundley has done over his three seasons starting is rack up 75 passing TDs with just 25 INTs. To put his college passing performance in some context: Hundley threw 14 picks in his last two college seasons (26 games). Jameis Winston coughed up 18 INTs just last season.
Winston accounted for 2.66 TDs per game (pass and rush) in his college career. Hundley has produced 2.65 TDs per game in his college career (2.68 per game if you count his one receiving TD).
Winston completed a stellar 66.0% of his passes in his college career. Hundley produced 67.6% accuracy.
Hundley is A+ in character off the field. He has high-end mobility. He has an NFL+ arm. He played in an offense last year that had him throwing downfield like in a pro style offense. He is not a gimmick passing game QB. He worked the ball downfield on his throwswhile maintaining a great TD-INT ratio.
I like Hundley as an NFL prospect better than Winston, but I realize no one else does. My Hundley-love is not the main reason that I push him here. I think NFL QB economics will be the catalyst. QB is the most critical position in the NFL times ten. After Hundley is gone, its a big drop-off to the Bryce Pettys of the world. If you want a shot at a franchise QBHundley is your chance at #19.
Josh McCown is not the planjust ask the Bucs about that, who are picking #1 overall in large part due to McCown. Johnny Manziel cannot be trusted to head up a franchise. In a world of McCowns, Cassels, Fitzpatricks as NFL options and a 2015 NFL Draft lacking in QB prospect depththe Browns may have to pinch their nose and pay up for Hundley. Disregard all this if they trade for Mike Glennonthus securing all the QBs from the 2-14 Bucs of 2014.
If Brett Hundley goes #19 to Cleveland on draft day, it would mean an $800K+ PTD-portfolio gain from where Hundley trades at today.
Good Luck with your Play The Draft
trades today!-- R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for PlayTheDraft.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logics football software The Machine.
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I never noticed Perriman until Flugels mentioned him highly. So, I started reading up on him,
and now he's skyrocketed up the charts. Nice job, Mr. Flugels !
Haven't been a keen fan of Hundley. Something about all the writings about the questions of him
reading defenses in the pros....but, what if he IS the guy?
makes sense.
I just don't know about a Taylor-Kitchen rotation. One gets banged up playing the rough position at NT,
and....
suppose Goldman falls to them in the second round? nah. Very interesting article !
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Parker/Perriman then Hundley huh? Could just as easily have 2 1st round busts as we've had the last 2 times we had 2 1st rounders... OR, we can roll the dice again and pick up 2 great talents. He is very accurate as far as our needs on offense supreceding our needs on D, but I find it hard to believe we would pass on all that D talent in the 1st round... it's hard to argue with his reasons...
Also, the numbers on Hundley are impressive, but I wonder if he is only using numbers based on confirmation bias... I'm sure somebody else could find stats that make Winston the more favorable pick...
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Another butterfly chase with Hudley @ 19? Maybe in Rd 2 but not in the 1st. No thanks.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1824723/brett-hundley
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I'd be more upset about Hundley at 19 than I would Mariota at 12.
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as new23 put it: how is a defensive-minded coach and a defensive minded GM going to pass on top level defensive talent in the first round? it's not like the draft is stacked like this every year. you gots to gets dem while der dere.
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I've heard some rumblings that the Eagles were gonna tap him at 20...(which kinda sounds reasonable to me).....so, IF the Browns really want him and think he can play, then 19 would be the spot to do it..... and a trade back might cost us the pick if the Eagles interest is real.....
I dont really have a strong opinion on him one way or the other and REALLY want more D.....(though, of course, also want a good QB more than anything else)....
So....take Hundley at 19?....Ok, if you say so....
But taking a WR at #12?.....dont like this one bit.....not at all.....bleck!!!
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BPA at 12 then Perryman at 19 yes please. Hundley cannot recognise pressure and has no play clock in his head, would be a huge reach to take him that high.
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WR Perriman was not taken until the 2rd round of our current mock draft. Hundley has not yet been selected.
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i think this year we will address the front 7 with both our first round pics... and why not? most of the other 17 teams (ahead of us) will be focused on offense and cb. From what I have been seeing in mocks is that there will be incredible value pass rushers available to be had when we go on the clock both times.
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i don't know about that. besides the 2 QBs i think most teams have learned that the real value in the draft is getting a 10 year starter on either line. wrs, rbs come and go but a wilfork or a michael dean perry? a joe thomas and a kevin mack? you better jump when those guys are there.
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I like Hundley and would love to see him rocking the brown and orange, but Im still not sure the Browns are willing to spend first round picks on a QB in consecutive years. It is smoke screen season but I believed Pettine when he said they were focusing on building an elite defense.
WR at 12? No thanks.
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Please God no to Perriman-nothing but a combine warrior who is rising because he ran really fast. The tape shows a guy who has a hard time catching the ball and doesn't run good routes. This guy is the next Greg Little, Heyward-Bay waiting to happen.
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So, Tour2ma, would that draft bring joy to your heart?
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
i don't know about that. besides the 2 QBs i think most teams have learned that the real value in the draft is getting a 10 year starter on either line. wrs, rbs come and go but a wilfork or a michael dean perry? a joe thomas and a kevin mack? you better jump when those guys are there.
i don't know about that. besides the 2 QBs i think most teams have learned that the real value in the draft is getting a 10 year starter on either line. wrs, rbs come and go but a wilfork or a michael dean perry? a joe thomas and a kevin mack? you better jump when those guys are there.
Joe Thomas has done a lot for us, hasn't he?
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
i don't know about that. besides the 2 QBs i think most teams have learned that the real value in the draft is getting a 10 year starter on either line. wrs, rbs come and go but a wilfork or a michael dean perry? a joe thomas and a kevin mack? you better jump when those guys are there.
Joe Thomas has done a lot for us, hasn't he?
Joe Thomas has done a lot for us, hasn't he?
a lot more than any other player being drafted since then. isn't a LT the cornerstone of an offense?
how's your manziel doing? did watkins put the bills over the top? keep it coming. you want to show stats? then let's do stats!
oh, i know, you're in love with mariota this year. just like you were with bortles last year. ask him if he'd want a thomas and a mack on his line.
yeah i thought so.........
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For those closely following this year's draft, who's higher up on most draft boards, Kevin White or Amari Cooper? I honestly feel one of those two will fall to us in the draft, in which case, I'd draft a WR.
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Joe Thomas has done a lot for us, hasn't he?
a lot more than any other player being drafted since then. isn't a LT the cornerstone of an offense?
how's your manziel doing? did watkins put the bills over the top? keep it coming. you want to show stats? then let's do stats!
oh, i know, you're in love with mariota this year. just like you were with bortles last year. ask him if he'd want a thomas and a mack on his line.
yeah i thought so.........
a lot more than any other player being drafted since then. isn't a LT the cornerstone of an offense?
how's your manziel doing? did watkins put the bills over the top? keep it coming. you want to show stats? then let's do stats!
oh, i know, you're in love with mariota this year. just like you were with bortles last year. ask him if he'd want a thomas and a mack on his line.
yeah i thought so.........
I don't know who "my Manziel" is. Prior to the moment he was drafted, I was against us taking him. However, once he became a Brown, I began to cheer for him...because I'm not a butthurt whiny bitch like a lot of people around here. I root for Cleveland Browns, I don't hold personal vendettas because I wanted someone else. If you notice, I don't say shit about Bortles anymore...because he's in Jacksonville, not Cleveland.
All your argument is proving is what I've been saying since my first post 5 years ago...no single person can turn a 4-12 team into a 12-4 team.
The "real value" in the draft is eliminating weak links - getting exponentially better at a position group you were previously weak at. We could anchor our line with 5 first round future HOFers and it wouldn't matter if the rest of our team was shit, just as we can throw a world-beating college QB behind a garbage line and they wouldn't acheive shit.
Joe Thomas physically can't do any better than what he's been...and that's gotten us nowhere. Until we raise the talent level at QB, DT, ILB, and TE, we'll be a shit team. Those are more important positions to us at this current moment than "wasting" a first round pick on an offensive lineman.
Joe Thomas is my idol, so I was giving you Ghoolie-level shit.
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