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Iowa Caucus

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  • I think the Democrats are secretly hoping for Joe Biden but the only way that happens is if Hillary gets indited which the Obama Justice Department will never allow.

    WSS

    @westside-steve said:

    I think the Democrats are secretly hoping for Joe Biden but the only way that happens is if Hillary gets indited which the Obama Justice Department will never allow.

    WSS

    Basically, it's a shit show all round, with the most informed, principled of either side likely not ending up with the nomination and the substandard shit rising to the top.

  • Caucuses are not winner take all AFAIK.

    Cruz got like 1 more delegate than Trump and Rubio if I'm not mistaken.

    Bernie may have gotten the same or more as Clinton.

    Delegates is really all that matters, but it's more interesting to see Rubio/Trump split the self identifying moderate vote. I think it's going to be a two man race after new Hampshire.

  • Trump will go on to win the nomination. Iowa is meaningless. Sanders will upset Hitlery. Trump will crush Sanders. Bank it.

  • I think the Democrats are secretly hoping for Joe Biden but the only way that happens is if Hillary gets indited which the Obama Justice Department will never allow.

    WSS

    @westside-steve said:

    I think the Democrats are secretly hoping for Joe Biden but the only way that happens is if Hillary gets indited which the Obama Justice Department will never allow.

    WSS

    The latest bunch of emails Clinton was found to have on her own personal unsecured server was the most confidential there is and lives were put at risk by her negligence. If the FBI refers Clinton to the DOJ for prosecution and the Obama Justice Dept doesn't act on it there will be a huge uproar that cannot be ignored and the atty general will be subpoenaed before congress to answer why.

  • All the pollsters were saying before the vote that the higher the turnout the more it favored Trump yet with the huge record turnout Cruz still wins. Now hearing the same old same old that a conservative like Cruz cannot win in November and we have to have a more *moderate* candidate. Where have I heard that before? John McCain and Mitt Romney? We always hear this that only the moderate establishment republican has a chance to win in November but I thought Reagan proved that myth wrong?

  • @westside-steve said:

    I think the Democrats are secretly hoping for Joe Biden but the only way that happens is if Hillary gets indited which the Obama Justice Department will never allow.

    WSS

    Basically, it's a shit show all round, with the most informed, principled of either side likely not ending up with the nomination and the substandard shit rising to the top.

    @gftchris said:

    Basically, it's a shit show all round, with the most informed, principled of either side likely not ending up with the nomination and the substandard shit rising to the top.

    I'm assuming you would be a Bernie Sanders supporter but who is the most informed and competent Republican in your opinion? Bush?

    WSS

  • By the way most likely my three favorites will be abandoning the quest soon enough, Fiorina, Christy and Kasich.

    WSS

  • @gftchris said:

    Basically, it's a shit show all round, with the most informed, principled of either side likely not ending up with the nomination and the substandard shit rising to the top.

    I'm assuming you would be a Bernie Sanders supporter but who is the most informed and competent Republican in your opinion? Bush?

    WSS

    @westside-steve said:

    I'm assuming you would be a Bernie Sanders supporter but who is the most informed and competent Republican in your opinion? Bush?

    WSS

    Probably Rand Paul. Jeb seems a bit of a puppet, another who seeks a 'divine right' presidency.

    It would be hilarious, btw, if after all the birther nonsense from parts of the right about Obama, if the republican nominee ends up being 'Rafael' Cruz, someone verifiably born in a different country.

  • All the pollsters were saying before the vote that the higher the turnout the more it favored Trump yet with the huge record turnout Cruz still wins. Now hearing the same old same old that a conservative like Cruz cannot win in November and we have to have a more *moderate* candidate. Where have I heard that before? John McCain and Mitt Romney? We always hear this that only the moderate establishment republican has a chance to win in November but I thought Reagan proved that myth wrong?

    @oldbrownsfan said:

    All the pollsters were saying before the vote that the higher the turnout the more it favored Trump yet with the huge record turnout Cruz still wins. Now hearing the same old same old that a conservative like Cruz cannot win in November and we have to have a more *moderate* candidate. Where have I heard that before? John McCain and Mitt Romney? We always hear this that only the moderate establishment republican has a chance to win in November but I thought Reagan proved that myth wrong?

    Cruz is not like McCain or Romney, who both lost in Iowa to bible thumping conservatives.

    Regardless Cruz would be a total disaster for this country.

  • @oldbrownsfan said:

    All the pollsters were saying before the vote that the higher the turnout the more it favored Trump yet with the huge record turnout Cruz still wins. Now hearing the same old same old that a conservative like Cruz cannot win in November and we have to have a more *moderate* candidate. Where have I heard that before? John McCain and Mitt Romney? We always hear this that only the moderate establishment republican has a chance to win in November but I thought Reagan proved that myth wrong?

    Cruz is not like McCain or Romney, who both lost in Iowa to bible thumping conservatives.

    Regardless Cruz would be a total disaster for this country.

    @bbedward said:

    Cruz is not like McCain or Romney, who both lost in Iowa to bible thumping conservatives.

    Regardless Cruz would be a total disaster for this country.

    Of course only Ben Carson got any notice at all. Neither Mike Huckabee nor Rick Santorum were on the radar.

    WSS

  • Cruz is a bizarre guy. If you get a chance, check out the behind the scenes of his campaign commercials. He makes his own family uncomfortable.

  • @oldbrownsfan said:

    All the pollsters were saying before the vote that the higher the turnout the more it favored Trump yet with the huge record turnout Cruz still wins. Now hearing the same old same old that a conservative like Cruz cannot win in November and we have to have a more *moderate* candidate. Where have I heard that before? John McCain and Mitt Romney? We always hear this that only the moderate establishment republican has a chance to win in November but I thought Reagan proved that myth wrong?

    Cruz is not like McCain or Romney, who both lost in Iowa to bible thumping conservatives.

    Regardless Cruz would be a total disaster for this country.

    @bbedward said:

    Cruz is not like McCain or Romney, who both lost in Iowa to bible thumping conservatives.

    Regardless Cruz would be a total disaster for this country.

    I think that's his point - that Cruz is the bible thumping conservative in this case that shouldn't win the nomination, because a more moderate candidate is needed in november; and that more moderate candidate was McCain and Romney, who both solidly lost, so why try the same thing again? Why not go with Cruz?

    At least, I think that's the logic. I'm not sure I agree with it, but that's the logic.

  • True enough, Ted Cruz is a religious guy but he seems more focused on politics than religion compared to Huckabee and Santorum.

    One thing I believe is coming home to roost for Donald Trump is that even though conservatives and outsiders like his brash appeal they have to consider his liberal history.

    WSS

  • True enough, Ted Cruz is a religious guy but he seems more focused on politics than religion compared to Huckabee and Santorum.

    One thing I believe is coming home to roost for Donald Trump is that even though conservatives and outsiders like his brash appeal they have to consider his liberal history.

    WSS

    @westside-steve said:

    One thing I believe is coming home to roost for Donald Trump is that even though conservatives and outsiders like his brash appeal they have to consider his liberal history.

    WSS

    A part of me has always thought of him as just a plant. Trump was a run-of-the-mill liberal guy and then out of nowhere he is an arch conservative.

  • @westside-steve said:

    One thing I believe is coming home to roost for Donald Trump is that even though conservatives and outsiders like his brash appeal they have to consider his liberal history.

    WSS

    A part of me has always thought of him as just a plant. Trump was a run-of-the-mill liberal guy and then out of nowhere he is an arch conservative.

    @logicisforsquares said:

    A part of me has always thought of him as just a plant. Trump was a run-of-the-mill liberal guy and then out of nowhere he is an arch conservative.

    Surely not, it's not likely he's particularly close with any of the democratic front runners, or personally endorsed any of them in the past, right? Oh wait...

    Yeah, part of me is waiting for him to just pull out and leave the republicans in total disarray, having spent 6 months focussing on shutting him down and not the actual problems.

  • I think Cruz got 8 delegates, Trump/Rubio got 7 each, Carson got 1 or 2, Paul got 1. Really it's more like a 3 way tie than anything, though other states are winner-take-all.

    Huckabee and O'Malley dropped out, I expect a Huckabee/Trump endorsement after the veterans event and the things Huck said about Cruz.

    Rubio/McCain/Romney/Bush are all pretty much the same person to me - hate em all, except for the pre-2008 McCain was alright.

    Cruz invested his entire campaign in Iowa and it was the only state he was competitive, will probably stay that way.

    Trump isn't a plant, but he isn't conservative. He's a nationalist and that's why so many people like him - he has liberal, moderate, and conservative ideas all mixed in together. His potential downfall is the lack of a ground game - he doesn't have enough people phone banking and sending mail, knocking on doors like Cruz/Rubio do. Depending on how NH plays out it may turn into a major mistake - I don't think Iowa really counts for much other than a 3-way tie.

    Trump has much bigger leads in NH and SC than he did in Iowa though. Sanders will win NH, but winning more conservative states will likely be a challenge for him - he also hasn't spent much money/time outside of Iowa and NH.

  • Also, Ted Cruz's campaign told people that Carson was out of the race to steal the bible thumper vote:

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/carson-other-campaigns-sabotaged-us-dirty-tricks-n509396

  • @bbedward said:

    Cruz is not like McCain or Romney, who both lost in Iowa to bible thumping conservatives.

    Regardless Cruz would be a total disaster for this country.

    I think that's his point - that Cruz is the bible thumping conservative in this case that shouldn't win the nomination, because a more moderate candidate is needed in november; and that more moderate candidate was McCain and Romney, who both solidly lost, so why try the same thing again? Why not go with Cruz?

    At least, I think that's the logic. I'm not sure I agree with it, but that's the logic.

    @gftchris said:

    I think that's his point - that Cruz is the bible thumping conservative in this case that shouldn't win the nomination, because a more moderate candidate is needed in november; and that more moderate candidate was McCain and Romney, who both solidly lost, so why try the same thing again? Why not go with Cruz?

    At least, I think that's the logic. I'm not sure I agree with it, but that's the logic.

    Not logic so much as the argument that is used every 4 years in republican circles that only moderates can win in the general election yet when the republicans throw up moderates like Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney they lose too....so why is the argument that only moderate republicans can win such a valid argument when the actual elections show different? Why did the most conservative republican Reagan win 2 landslide elections?

    I think the same argument is probably used against Trump too....that he is not electable.

    Can Cruz or Trump beat Clinton? Sure they both can. The democrats could not be running a weaker candidate than her.

  • Moderate republicans losing doesn't mean conservative republicans will win. We lose with Johnny Manziel at QB, but that doesn't mean we should start Steve there just because he's not Manziel.

  • Moderate republicans losing doesn't mean conservative republicans will win. We lose with Johnny Manziel at QB, but that doesn't mean we should start Steve there just because he's not Manziel.

    @gftchris said:

    Moderate republicans losing doesn't mean conservative republicans will win. We lose with Johnny Manziel at QB, but that doesn't mean we should start Steve there just because he's not Manziel.

    Well we did win two of the three games that we won with him so... Let's not pretend it's not a lot about the optics.

    WSS