First vs. Best
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OK.....but, as noted....so many on here are saying..."If now instead of taking the dregs of the first round....like JMZ/Weeden/Quinn...we can now get the top prospect at QB because of our #2 position, ergo, we are going to get a great franchise QB!! Hallelujah, Glory Be, Va Va Voom"......well
yea, we are in a better position than we have been in the past with those guys......but our chances go up to having the franchise player we want from like 10-15% to 38%. Better, yes. A sure thing...by no means.
We'll see Gip if Hue & company view Wentz or Goff as franchise quarterbacks. Our odds are certainly better than reaching for guys like Weeden or Manziel. (I don't think Quinn had the flaws of the previous two, but I just had a strong gut feeling he was seriously going to bust) I like the fact if someone jumps to #1 overall to take a quarterback, we still get a top prospect if we have both of them rated equally.
We'll see Gip if Hue & company view Wentz or Goff as franchise quarterbacks. Our odds are certainly better than reaching for guys like Weeden or Manziel. (I don't think Quinn had the flaws of the previous two, but I just had a strong gut feeling he was seriously going to bust) I like the fact if someone jumps to #1 overall to take a quarterback, we still get a top prospect if we have both of them rated equally.
The Tits want a king's ransom they say to trade for the #1 pick. I heard on the radio that some teams are so hot on Goff that they might be willing to do that. Do you think that could happen?
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Let's apply this to another position: Wide Receiver. I will list the first WR taken in drafts (this time only going back to 1990), then the best WR taken in that draft....at their position....and compare. # means first WR taken was the best:
2015 Amari Cooper # so far
2014 Sammy Watkins....Odell Beckham, 3rd WR picked (or could be too soon to tell)
2013 Tavon Austin....D'Andre Hopkins, 2d pick
2012 Justin Blackmon...Alshon Jeffrey 7th pick
2011 AJ Green/Julio Jones#....These guys picked 1 and 2 have almost identical statistics
2010 Demaryious Thomas.....Antonio Brown 23rd pick WR picked
2009 Darius Heyward-Bey....Mike Wallace 11th
2008 Donnie Aubrey....DeSean Jackson 7th
2007 Calvin Johnson #
2006 SAntonio Holmes...Brandon Marshall 14th
2005 Braylon Edwards...Roddy White 6th
2004 Larry Fitzgerald#
2003 Charles Rogers...Andre Johnson 2d
2002 Donte Stallworth...Deion Branch 11th
2001 David Terrell....Reggie Wayne 6th
2000 Peter Warrick...Plaxico Burris 2d
1999 Tori Holt#
1998 Kevin Dyson....Randy Moss 2d
1997 Ike Hilliard ...Derek Mason 9th
1996 Keyshawn....Marvin Harrison/Terrelle Owens 6th and 12th
1995 Michael Westbrook...Joey Galloway 2d
1994 Charles Johnson....Isaac Bruce 6th
1993 Curtis Conway#
1992 Desmond Howard...Jimmy Smith
1991 Herman Moore#
1990 Alexander Wright....Terence Mathis 17th pick
Only 6-7 of the first WRs taken since 1990 turned out to be the best of their WR class. About 25%. This is worse than QBs.
So...perhaps there are a couple of lessons there for the Browns this season:
A. Taking a WR further down the list may not be all that bad
B. Never take a Michigan receiver as the first WR taken in a draft...Howard, Terrelle, Braylon all flunkies as first WR taken. At least Howard has some decent kick returning skills.
Also note: just because a WR (or QB or anyone else) taken first at their position may not turn out to be the best at their position in their draft class does not mean they are a bust.
Like Sammy Watkins, Demarious Thomas, Santonio Holmes, Keyshawn Johnson. All good...perhaps even outstanding players....just someone else surpassed them.
Though, also there have been plenty of outright busts at the 1st WR position: Charles Rogers, Justin Blackmon, Braylon imo, etc.
Let's apply this to another position: Wide Receiver. I will list the first WR taken in drafts (this time only going back to 1990), then the best WR taken in that draft....at their position....and compare. # means first WR taken was the best:
2015 Amari Cooper # so far
2014 Sammy Watkins....Odell Beckham, 3rd WR picked (or could be too soon to tell)
2013 Tavon Austin....D'Andre Hopkins, 2d pick
2012 Justin Blackmon...Alshon Jeffrey 7th pick
2011 AJ Green/Julio Jones#....These guys picked 1 and 2 have almost identical statistics
2010 Demaryious Thomas.....Antonio Brown 23rd pick WR picked
2009 Darius Heyward-Bey....Mike Wallace 11th
2008 Donnie Aubrey....DeSean Jackson 7th
2007 Calvin Johnson #
2006 SAntonio Holmes...Brandon Marshall 14th
2005 Braylon Edwards...Roddy White 6th
2004 Larry Fitzgerald#
2003 Charles Rogers...Andre Johnson 2d
2002 Donte Stallworth...Deion Branch 11th
2001 David Terrell....Reggie Wayne 6th
2000 Peter Warrick...Plaxico Burris 2d
1999 Tori Holt#
1998 Kevin Dyson....Randy Moss 2d
1997 Ike Hilliard ...Derek Mason 9th
1996 Keyshawn....Marvin Harrison/Terrelle Owens 6th and 12th
1995 Michael Westbrook...Joey Galloway 2d
1994 Charles Johnson....Isaac Bruce 6th
1993 Curtis Conway#
1992 Desmond Howard...Jimmy Smith
1991 Herman Moore#
1990 Alexander Wright....Terence Mathis 17th pick
Only 6-7 of the first WRs taken since 1990 turned out to be the best of their WR class. About 25%. This is worse than QBs.
So...perhaps there are a couple of lessons there for the Browns this season:
A. Taking a WR further down the list may not be all that bad
B. Never take a Michigan receiver as the first WR taken in a draft...Howard, Terrelle, Braylon all flunkies as first WR taken. At least Howard has some decent kick returning skills.
Also note: just because a WR (or QB or anyone else) taken first at their position may not turn out to be the best at their position in their draft class does not mean they are a bust.
Like Sammy Watkins, Demarious Thomas, Santonio Holmes, Keyshawn Johnson. All good...perhaps even outstanding players....just someone else surpassed them.
Though, also there have been plenty of outright busts at the 1st WR position: Charles Rogers, Justin Blackmon, Braylon imo, etc.
As noted in another thread.....what this particular list may have to take into account is the QBs throwing to these guys. A. Brown, M. Wallace, Burris, etc. had BR at QB. Harrison/Wayne etc. had Peyton. Some had Brady. So there is a factor in this.
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OK, final position to look at here: Running back. Going back to 1980. First RB taken....then "best/most productive one" and that persons draft slot at his position. # means first take was best:
1980 Billy Sims#
1981 George Rogers.....James Brooks 5th RB picked
1982 Darrin Nelson.....Marcus Allen 3rd
1983 Eric Dickerson#
1984 Greg Bell.....Ernest Byner 38th RB selected
1985 George Adams.....Herschel Walker #9 (would have been #1 if not for USFL contract)
1986 Bo Jackson...Keith Byars/John Williams/Ronnie Harmon/Neal Anderson all with similar career stats
1987 Alonzo Highsmith....Merrill Hoge 37th pick
1988 Gaston Green....Thurman Thomas 5th pick
1989 Barry Sanders#
1990 Blair Thomas.....Emmit Smith 2d pick
1991 Leornard Russell....Ricky Watters 6th pick
1992 Tommy Vardell...Edgar Bennett 9th pick
1993 Garrison Hearst....Jerome Bettis 2d pick
1994 Marshall Faulk#
1995 Kijana Carger....Curtis Martin 10th pick
1996 Lawrence Phillips.....Eddie George 3rd pick
1997 Warrick Dunn.....Tiki Barber 3rd pick
1998 Curtis Enis....Fred Taylor 2d pick
1999 Edgerrin James #
2000 Jamal Lewis#
2001 LaDanian Tomlinson#
2002 William Green....Brian Westbrook 8th pick
2003 Willis McGahee#
2004 Stephen Jackson#
2005 Ronnie Brown....Frank Gore 6th pick
2006 Reggie Bush.....Maurice Jones-Drew 6th pick
2007 Adrian Peterson#
2008 Darren McFadden....Matt Forte 6th pick
2009 Knowshon Moreno...LeSean McCoy 4th pick
2010 CJ Spiller....Ryan Matthews 2d pick
2011 Marc Ingram....DeMarco Murray 6th pick
2012 Trent Richardson...Doug Martin 2d pick
2013 Giovanni Bernard...Eddy Lacy 4th pick
2014 Bishop Sankey....Jeremy Hill 2d pick
2015 Todd Gurley#....so far.
Notes:
Here, about 10 times out of 35 has the first RB drafted been the best...less than 30%. Perhaps the adage: you can get RBs anywhere does apply......but not that much more than at QB.
1st QB best about 38%
1st WR best about 25%
1st RB best about 28%
Guys like Ernest Byner and Merrill Hoge would have been UFAs in today's system. Can a UFA RB become one of the best? Certainly. Wasn't Adrian Foster UFA? Maybe some hope for The Crow.
But...I think still, if you think there is a stud RB out there, you may want to go all in for him.
But I personally would avoid Alabama RBs....and Penn St. RBs at the top of the draft.
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WR exception maybe D'Andre Hopkins. Due to that bitch catches anything close.(Mallet, Hoyer & Weeden). Was not with Carr?
WR exception maybe D'Andre Hopkins. Due to that bitch catches anything close.(Mallet, Hoyer & Weeden). Was not with Carr?
Not sure I follow you.
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Not sure I follow you.
Could you image Hopkins numbers if he ever had a QB in pros to throw to him? (it would be crazy) Mallet & Hoyer. Yuk. Think QB David Carr might have been their Hopkins rookie year only & Hopkins sat behind Andre Johnson?
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We'll see Gip if Hue & company view Wentz or Goff as franchise quarterbacks. Our odds are certainly better than reaching for guys like Weeden or Manziel. (I don't think Quinn had the flaws of the previous two, but I just had a strong gut feeling he was seriously going to bust) I like the fact if someone jumps to #1 overall to take a quarterback, we still get a top prospect if we have both of them rated equally.
The Tits want a king's ransom they say to trade for the #1 pick. I heard on the radio that some teams are so hot on Goff that they might be willing to do that. Do you think that could happen?
The Tits want a king's ransom they say to trade for the #1 pick. I heard on the radio that some teams are so hot on Goff that they might be willing to do that. Do you think that could happen?
LOL, around a 30% chance Gip. Let's look at the draft value chart for teams that might want to move up. (just QB needy teams- or potentially needy)
#2 to #1 Browns- 1st, - 3rd & 4th (or next years 2nd)
#4 to #1 Dallas- 1st, 2nd, 3rd + next years 2nd.
#7 to #1 SF 1st, 2nd + next year 1st
#8 to #1 Eagles 1st, 2nd, 3rd + next years 1st
#15 to #1 Rams 1st + two more 1sts
#31 to #1 Broncos 1st, 2nd, next years 1st + Von Miller
MHO- Dallas and the Niners- if they really want a quarterback- will just sit tight, and draft the QB the Browns don't take. Those two are the only teams I'd worry about jumping to #1 overall. Jerrah says he isn't moving up, and the 49ers for the time being have a $11 million qb in Kap.
There's other teams that may want a QB- like Buffalo and Chicago- but in all likelihood, they'll just wait and take Lynch instead of giving up the King's ransom to move to #1. Ditto that for the Rams.
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The Tits want a king's ransom they say to trade for the #1 pick. I heard on the radio that some teams are so hot on Goff that they might be willing to do that. Do you think that could happen?
LOL, around a 30% chance Gip. Let's look at the draft value chart for teams that might want to move up. (just QB needy teams- or potentially needy)
#2 to #1 Browns- 1st, - 3rd & 4th (or next years 2nd)
#4 to #1 Dallas- 1st, 2nd, 3rd + next years 2nd.
#7 to #1 SF 1st, 2nd + next year 1st
#8 to #1 Eagles 1st, 2nd, 3rd + next years 1st
#15 to #1 Rams 1st + two more 1sts
#31 to #1 Broncos 1st, 2nd, next years 1st + Von Miller
MHO- Dallas and the Niners- if they really want a quarterback- will just sit tight, and draft the QB the Browns don't take. Those two are the only teams I'd worry about jumping to #1 overall. Jerrah says he isn't moving up, and the 49ers for the time being have a $11 million qb in Kap.
There's other teams that may want a QB- like Buffalo and Chicago- but in all likelihood, they'll just wait and take Lynch instead of giving up the King's ransom to move to #1. Ditto that for the Rams.
LOL, around a 30% chance Gip. Let's look at the draft value chart for teams that might want to move up. (just QB needy teams- or potentially needy)
#2 to #1 Browns- 1st, - 3rd & 4th (or next years 2nd)
#4 to #1 Dallas- 1st, 2nd, 3rd + next years 2nd.
#7 to #1 SF 1st, 2nd + next year 1st
#8 to #1 Eagles 1st, 2nd, 3rd + next years 1st
#15 to #1 Rams 1st + two more 1sts
#31 to #1 Broncos 1st, 2nd, next years 1st + Von Miller
MHO- Dallas and the Niners- if they really want a quarterback- will just sit tight, and draft the QB the Browns don't take. Those two are the only teams I'd worry about jumping to #1 overall. Jerrah says he isn't moving up, and the 49ers for the time being have a $11 million qb in Kap.
There's other teams that may want a QB- like Buffalo and Chicago- but in all likelihood, they'll just wait and take Lynch instead of giving up the King's ransom to move to #1. Ditto that for the Rams.
I think that is right...and I think that is smart. Again....my opinion is that none of these QBs have the talent worthy of the #2 overall pick. And in my opinion of the Browns draft one it will be because they are reaching for need.
The one thing I think though that is happening for the Browns this year is that the analytics guys will be taking the emotion out of the draft process....perhaps even overruling Hue Jackson to do so. Emotion got us all these bad picks. Like Zombo said, if we had just stayed put and taken the emotion out of things...that "need" to be proactive and creative and trying to outthink everyone but only outthinking themselves in the process....and taken the best player on the board we could have had the likes of Sammy Watkins, Khalil Mack, David Carr etc.
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No goff no fucking wentz, if ur not gonna take bpa than trade down and load up
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And so theres no misunderstanding, bpa means tunsil, bosa or ramsey. End of discussion. Anyone of those guys fills basically dire immediate needs.
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Much ado has been made about the fact that the Browns likely have the chance now to take the first QB that will be available in the forthcoming draft and that the Browns should make hay with that opportunity.
But....in the words of Lee Corso "Not so Fast My Friends"....maybe taking the first QB in a draft does not often mean that you get the best QB in the draft.
Here is a list of each of the first drafted QB in each draft in the Common draft era: 1966 to current, along with what QB was actually the best QB taken in that draft. If it is one and the same, then there will be a # sign, in a few years it is debatable and I will note those:
1966 Randy Johnson #
1967 Steve Spurrier....vs. Bob Griese
1968 Greg Landry....Ken Stabler
1969 Greg Cook.....James Harris
1970 Terry Bradshaw #
1971 Jim Plunkett....Ken Anderson# (but also Archie Manning/Joe Theisman in mix)
1972 Jerry Tagge....Brian Sipe
1973 Bert Jones.....Dan Fouts
1974 Danny White#
1975 Steve Bartkowski....Steve Grogan
1976 Richard Todd#
1977 Steve Pisarkewiscz....Tommy Kramer
1978 Doug Williams
1979 Jack Thompson....Joe Montana
1980 Marc Wilson....Eric Hipple (actually about equal between two mediocre QBs)
1981 Rich Campbell....Neil Lomax
1982 Art Schlichter....Jim McMahon
1983 John Elway....vs. Dan Marino (Jim Kelly also close)?
1984 Bommer Esiason#
1985 Randall Cunningham# (but Kosar in Supp draft??)
1986 Jim Everett
1987 Vinny Testaverde.....vs. Rich Gannon (close matchup)
1988 Tom Tupa ...Chris Chandler
1989 Troy Aikman#
1990 Jeff George....Neil O'Donnell
1991 Dan McGwire.....Brett Favre
1992 David Klingler....Brad Johnson
1993 Drew Bledsoe#
1994 Heath Shuler....Gus Frerotte or Trent Dilfer
1995 Steve McNair#
1996 Tony Banks#
1997 Jim Drukenmiller....Jake Plummer
1998 Peyton Manning#
1999 Tim Couch....Donovan McNabb
2000 Chad Pennington.....Tom Brady
2001 Michael Vick.....Drew Brees
2002 David Carr....David Garrard
2003 Carson Palmer#
2004 Eli Manning....vs. Phillip Rivers or Ben R. debateable
2005 Alex Smith....Aaron Rodgers
2006 Vince Young....Jay Cutler
2007 Jamarcus Russell....Trent Edwards
2008 Matt Ryan# (or Joe Flacco?)
2009 Matt Stafford#
2010 Sam Bradford#
2011 Cam Newton
2012 Andrew Luck....Russell Wilson
2013 EJ Manuel...or Geno Smith (equally bad)
2014 Blake Bortles.....Teddy Twatwater...so far
2015 Jameis Winston# so far
Out of 50 years, only 19 times did the first QB taken in the draft turn out to be the best QB to come out of that draft. In 5 other years I think it is debateable (1971, 1980, 1987 2004, 2013) leaving at least 26 times where clearly the better QB was not the first QB taken.
So that means that, historically, we have a 38% to get the best QB in this draft, if we take one at #2 .
Food for thought.
Bold= HOF or certain HOF.
Much ado has been made about the fact that the Browns likely have the chance now to take the first QB that will be available in the forthcoming draft and that the Browns should make hay with that opportunity.
But....in the words of Lee Corso "Not so Fast My Friends"....maybe taking the first QB in a draft does not often mean that you get the best QB in the draft.
Here is a list of each of the first drafted QB in each draft in the Common draft era: 1966 to current, along with what QB was actually the best QB taken in that draft. If it is one and the same, then there will be a # sign, in a few years it is debatable and I will note those:
1966 Randy Johnson #
1967 Steve Spurrier....vs. Bob Griese
1968 Greg Landry....Ken Stabler
1969 Greg Cook.....James Harris
1970 Terry Bradshaw #
1971 Jim Plunkett....Ken Anderson# (but also Archie Manning/Joe Theisman in mix)
1972 Jerry Tagge....Brian Sipe
1973 Bert Jones.....Dan Fouts
1974 Danny White#
1975 Steve Bartkowski....Steve Grogan
1976 Richard Todd#
1977 Steve Pisarkewiscz....Tommy Kramer
1978 Doug Williams
1979 Jack Thompson....Joe Montana
1980 Marc Wilson....Eric Hipple (actually about equal between two mediocre QBs)
1981 Rich Campbell....Neil Lomax
1982 Art Schlichter....Jim McMahon
1983 John Elway....vs. Dan Marino (Jim Kelly also close)?
1984 Bommer Esiason#
1985 Randall Cunningham# (but Kosar in Supp draft??)
1986 Jim Everett
1987 Vinny Testaverde.....vs. Rich Gannon (close matchup)
1988 Tom Tupa ...Chris Chandler
1989 Troy Aikman#
1990 Jeff George....Neil O'Donnell
1991 Dan McGwire.....Brett Favre
1992 David Klingler....Brad Johnson
1993 Drew Bledsoe#
1994 Heath Shuler....Gus Frerotte or Trent Dilfer
1995 Steve McNair#
1996 Tony Banks#
1997 Jim Drukenmiller....Jake Plummer
1998 Peyton Manning#
1999 Tim Couch....Donovan McNabb
2000 Chad Pennington.....Tom Brady
2001 Michael Vick.....Drew Brees
2002 David Carr....David Garrard
2003 Carson Palmer#
2004 Eli Manning....vs. Phillip Rivers or Ben R. debateable
2005 Alex Smith....Aaron Rodgers
2006 Vince Young....Jay Cutler
2007 Jamarcus Russell....Trent Edwards
2008 Matt Ryan# (or Joe Flacco?)
2009 Matt Stafford#
2010 Sam Bradford#
2011 Cam Newton
2012 Andrew Luck....Russell Wilson
2013 EJ Manuel...or Geno Smith (equally bad)
2014 Blake Bortles.....Teddy Twatwater...so far
2015 Jameis Winston# so far
Out of 50 years, only 19 times did the first QB taken in the draft turn out to be the best QB to come out of that draft. In 5 other years I think it is debateable (1971, 1980, 1987 2004, 2013) leaving at least 26 times where clearly the better QB was not the first QB taken.
So that means that, historically, we have a 38% to get the best QB in this draft, if we take one at #2 .
Food for thought.
Bold= HOF or certain HOF.
I thought Neil Lomax with the cardinals was pretty good.. he was the best they had since John Hart.. Injuries ended Lomax's career early.
Nickers...."There are no old running QB's in the NFL "~Sam Rutigliano~ -
Much ado has been made about the fact that the Browns likely have the chance now to take the first QB that will be available in the forthcoming draft and that the Browns should make hay with that opportunity.
But....in the words of Lee Corso "Not so Fast My Friends"....maybe taking the first QB in a draft does not often mean that you get the best QB in the draft.
Here is a list of each of the first drafted QB in each draft in the Common draft era: 1966 to current, along with what QB was actually the best QB taken in that draft. If it is one and the same, then there will be a # sign, in a few years it is debatable and I will note those:
1966 Randy Johnson #
1967 Steve Spurrier....vs. Bob Griese
1968 Greg Landry....Ken Stabler
1969 Greg Cook.....James Harris
1970 Terry Bradshaw #
1971 Jim Plunkett....Ken Anderson# (but also Archie Manning/Joe Theisman in mix)
1972 Jerry Tagge....Brian Sipe
1973 Bert Jones.....Dan Fouts
1974 Danny White#
1975 Steve Bartkowski....Steve Grogan
1976 Richard Todd#
1977 Steve Pisarkewiscz....Tommy Kramer
1978 Doug Williams
1979 Jack Thompson....Joe Montana
1980 Marc Wilson....Eric Hipple (actually about equal between two mediocre QBs)
1981 Rich Campbell....Neil Lomax
1982 Art Schlichter....Jim McMahon
1983 John Elway....vs. Dan Marino (Jim Kelly also close)?
1984 Bommer Esiason#
1985 Randall Cunningham# (but Kosar in Supp draft??)
1986 Jim Everett
1987 Vinny Testaverde.....vs. Rich Gannon (close matchup)
1988 Tom Tupa ...Chris Chandler
1989 Troy Aikman#
1990 Jeff George....Neil O'Donnell
1991 Dan McGwire.....Brett Favre
1992 David Klingler....Brad Johnson
1993 Drew Bledsoe#
1994 Heath Shuler....Gus Frerotte or Trent Dilfer
1995 Steve McNair#
1996 Tony Banks#
1997 Jim Drukenmiller....Jake Plummer
1998 Peyton Manning#
1999 Tim Couch....Donovan McNabb
2000 Chad Pennington.....Tom Brady
2001 Michael Vick.....Drew Brees
2002 David Carr....David Garrard
2003 Carson Palmer#
2004 Eli Manning....vs. Phillip Rivers or Ben R. debateable
2005 Alex Smith....Aaron Rodgers
2006 Vince Young....Jay Cutler
2007 Jamarcus Russell....Trent Edwards
2008 Matt Ryan# (or Joe Flacco?)
2009 Matt Stafford#
2010 Sam Bradford#
2011 Cam Newton
2012 Andrew Luck....Russell Wilson
2013 EJ Manuel...or Geno Smith (equally bad)
2014 Blake Bortles.....Teddy Twatwater...so far
2015 Jameis Winston# so far
Out of 50 years, only 19 times did the first QB taken in the draft turn out to be the best QB to come out of that draft. In 5 other years I think it is debateable (1971, 1980, 1987 2004, 2013) leaving at least 26 times where clearly the better QB was not the first QB taken.
So that means that, historically, we have a 38% to get the best QB in this draft, if we take one at #2 .
Food for thought.
Bold= HOF or certain HOF.
2008 Matt Ryan# (or Joe Flacco?)
So that means that, historically, we have a 38% to get the best QB in this draft, if we take one at #2 .
So 8 years later the closest to Ryan & Flaco are sitting at #2. Which one you want?
Browns & Buffett: Got to go fishin, Down to rock bottom again, with just a few Friends -
Not debatable to me. Big Ben, as much as I and many loathe him, is superior to both.
Phillip Rivers is actually, statistically the most productive of those 3 2004 QBs. But he is the one without titles. The other two have two each.....so they have that edge.
Of course....what would Rivers have done with the Steelers defenses over the years? Possibly just as good or better.
Phillip Rivers is actually, statistically the most productive of those 3 2004 QBs. But he is the one without titles. The other two have two each.....so they have that edge.
Of course....what would Rivers have done with the Steelers defenses over the years? Possibly just as good or better.
Is this fantasy football or football?
AKA SNATCH98 or Rorbotron. The boards glorious admins decided to get cute and change my name to "homotron" Classy group of people. (Lost a bet with Columbus king and got banned for a month) -
Zombo said:
Carr is better than both.
Z
Agreed. Fantasy football which I love has ruined how we evaluate players in the nfl. Carr is the best of that class.
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Much ado has been made about the fact that the Browns likely have the chance now to take the first QB that will be available in the forthcoming draft and that the Browns should make hay with that opportunity.
But....in the words of Lee Corso "Not so Fast My Friends"....maybe taking the first QB in a draft does not often mean that you get the best QB in the draft.
Here is a list of each of the first drafted QB in each draft in the Common draft era: 1966 to current, along with what QB was actually the best QB taken in that draft. If it is one and the same, then there will be a # sign, in a few years it is debatable and I will note those:
1966 Randy Johnson #
1967 Steve Spurrier....vs. Bob Griese
1968 Greg Landry....Ken Stabler
1969 Greg Cook.....James Harris
1970 Terry Bradshaw #
1971 Jim Plunkett....Ken Anderson# (but also Archie Manning/Joe Theisman in mix)
1972 Jerry Tagge....Brian Sipe
1973 Bert Jones.....Dan Fouts
1974 Danny White#
1975 Steve Bartkowski....Steve Grogan
1976 Richard Todd#
1977 Steve Pisarkewiscz....Tommy Kramer
1978 Doug Williams
1979 Jack Thompson....Joe Montana
1980 Marc Wilson....Eric Hipple (actually about equal between two mediocre QBs)
1981 Rich Campbell....Neil Lomax
1982 Art Schlichter....Jim McMahon
1983 John Elway....vs. Dan Marino (Jim Kelly also close)?
1984 Bommer Esiason#
1985 Randall Cunningham# (but Kosar in Supp draft??)
1986 Jim Everett
1987 Vinny Testaverde.....vs. Rich Gannon (close matchup)
1988 Tom Tupa ...Chris Chandler
1989 Troy Aikman#
1990 Jeff George....Neil O'Donnell
1991 Dan McGwire.....Brett Favre
1992 David Klingler....Brad Johnson
1993 Drew Bledsoe#
1994 Heath Shuler....Gus Frerotte or Trent Dilfer
1995 Steve McNair#
1996 Tony Banks#
1997 Jim Drukenmiller....Jake Plummer
1998 Peyton Manning#
1999 Tim Couch....Donovan McNabb
2000 Chad Pennington.....Tom Brady
2001 Michael Vick.....Drew Brees
2002 David Carr....David Garrard
2003 Carson Palmer#
2004 Eli Manning....vs. Phillip Rivers or Ben R. debateable
2005 Alex Smith....Aaron Rodgers
2006 Vince Young....Jay Cutler
2007 Jamarcus Russell....Trent Edwards
2008 Matt Ryan# (or Joe Flacco?)
2009 Matt Stafford#
2010 Sam Bradford#
2011 Cam Newton
2012 Andrew Luck....Russell Wilson
2013 EJ Manuel...or Geno Smith (equally bad)
2014 Blake Bortles.....Teddy Twatwater...so far
2015 Jameis Winston# so far
Out of 50 years, only 19 times did the first QB taken in the draft turn out to be the best QB to come out of that draft. In 5 other years I think it is debateable (1971, 1980, 1987 2004, 2013) leaving at least 26 times where clearly the better QB was not the first QB taken.
So that means that, historically, we have a 38% to get the best QB in this draft, if we take one at #2 .
Food for thought.
Bold= HOF or certain HOF.
I thought Neil Lomax with the cardinals was pretty good.. he was the best they had since John Hart.. Injuries ended Lomax's career early.
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2008 Matt Ryan# (or Joe Flacco?)
So that means that, historically, we have a 38% to get the best QB in this draft, if we take one at #2 .
So 8 years later the closest to Ryan & Flaco are sitting at #2. Which one you want?
So 8 years later the closest to Ryan & Flaco are sitting at #2. Which one you want?
Interesting question....... they are very similar to me. Fair to say? Flacco has that ring which likely gives him the edge. But Ryan never had the kind of defense Flacco has had backing him up in his career.
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Phillip Rivers is actually, statistically the most productive of those 3 2004 QBs. But he is the one without titles. The other two have two each.....so they have that edge.
Of course....what would Rivers have done with the Steelers defenses over the years? Possibly just as good or better.
Is this fantasy football or football?
Is this fantasy football or football?
Again, good question.....when it comes to a stat I use often: the PFR Career Production Average, Rivers actually has the slight advantage over both BR and Eli.....(combining total yds/TDs/percentages etc. etc.)
But those other two guys have the rings.
Here is the statistical breakdown for those Top 11 2004 draftees:
Completions/atts: Rivers 3462/5339 BR 3476/5423 Eli 3695/6227
Yards: Rivers 41,447 BR 42, 995 Eli 44,191
TDs: Rivers 281 BR 272 Eli 294
TD%: Rivers 5.3 BR 5.0 Eli 4.7
Ints: Rivers 135 BR 147 Eli 199
Int%: Rivers 2.5 BR 2.7 Eli 3.2
Y/Att: Rivers 7.8 BR 7.9 Eli 7.1
YPG: Rivers 252.7 BR 251.4 Eli 238.9
Rating: Rivers 95.5 BR 94.0 Eli 83.5
Comp % Rivers 64.8 BR 64.1 Eli 59.3
CA: River 151 BR 145 Eli 134
All very similar...Eli's Ints and completion % give him a lower rating I think. The big difference between these guys:
2 of them have 2 rings.....one has none.
How much of that is serendipity?
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