First vs. Best

Clevfan4life

No goff no fucking wentz, if ur not gonna take bpa than trade down and load up

Clevfan4life

And so theres no misunderstanding, bpa means tunsil, bosa or ramsey. End of discussion. Anyone of those guys fills basically dire immediate needs.

Tour2ma

How long have you been trying to end this discussion now?

nickers

@the-gipper said:

Much ado has been made about the fact that the Browns likely have the chance now to take the first QB that will be available in the forthcoming draft and that the Browns should make hay with that opportunity.

But....in the words of Lee Corso "Not so Fast My Friends"....maybe taking the first QB in a draft does not often mean that you get the best QB in the draft.

Here is a list of each of the first drafted QB in each draft in the Common draft era: 1966 to current, along with what QB was actually the best QB taken in that draft. If it is one and the same, then there will be a # sign, in a few years it is debatable and I will note those:

1966 Randy Johnson #

1967 Steve Spurrier....vs. Bob Griese

1968 Greg Landry....Ken Stabler

1969 Greg Cook.....James Harris

1970 Terry Bradshaw #

1971 Jim Plunkett....Ken Anderson# (but also Archie Manning/Joe Theisman in mix)

1972 Jerry Tagge....Brian Sipe

1973 Bert Jones.....Dan Fouts

1974 Danny White#

1975 Steve Bartkowski....Steve Grogan

1976 Richard Todd#

1977 Steve Pisarkewiscz....Tommy Kramer

1978 Doug Williams

1979 Jack Thompson....Joe Montana

1980 Marc Wilson....Eric Hipple (actually about equal between two mediocre QBs)

1981 Rich Campbell....Neil Lomax

1982 Art Schlichter....Jim McMahon

1983 John Elway....vs. Dan Marino (Jim Kelly also close)?

1984 Bommer Esiason#

1985 Randall Cunningham# (but Kosar in Supp draft??)

1986 Jim Everett

1987 Vinny Testaverde.....vs. Rich Gannon (close matchup)

1988 Tom Tupa ...Chris Chandler

1989 Troy Aikman#

1990 Jeff George....Neil O'Donnell

1991 Dan McGwire.....Brett Favre

1992 David Klingler....Brad Johnson

1993 Drew Bledsoe#

1994 Heath Shuler....Gus Frerotte or Trent Dilfer

1995 Steve McNair#

1996 Tony Banks#

1997 Jim Drukenmiller....Jake Plummer

1998 Peyton Manning#

1999 Tim Couch....Donovan McNabb

2000 Chad Pennington.....Tom Brady

2001 Michael Vick.....Drew Brees

2002 David Carr....David Garrard

2003 Carson Palmer#

2004 Eli Manning....vs. Phillip Rivers or Ben R. debateable

2005 Alex Smith....Aaron Rodgers

2006 Vince Young....Jay Cutler

2007 Jamarcus Russell....Trent Edwards

2008 Matt Ryan# (or Joe Flacco?)

2009 Matt Stafford#

2010 Sam Bradford#

2011 Cam Newton

2012 Andrew Luck....Russell Wilson

2013 EJ Manuel...or Geno Smith (equally bad)

2014 Blake Bortles.....Teddy Twatwater...so far

2015 Jameis Winston# so far

Out of 50 years, only 19 times did the first QB taken in the draft turn out to be the best QB to come out of that draft. In 5 other years I think it is debateable (1971, 1980, 1987 2004, 2013) leaving at least 26 times where clearly the better QB was not the first QB taken.

So that means that, historically, we have a 38% to get the best QB in this draft, if we take one at #2 .

Food for thought.

Bold= HOF or certain HOF.

I thought Neil Lomax with the cardinals was pretty good.. he was the best they had since John Hart.. Injuries ended Lomax's career early.

gumby73

@the-gipper said:

2008 Matt Ryan# (or Joe Flacco?)

So that means that, historically, we have a 38% to get the best QB in this draft, if we take one at #2 .

So 8 years later the closest to Ryan & Flaco are sitting at #2. Which one you want?

Vagitron

@the-gipper said:

Phillip Rivers is actually, statistically the most productive of those 3 2004 QBs. But he is the one without titles. The other two have two each.....so they have that edge.

Of course....what would Rivers have done with the Steelers defenses over the years? Possibly just as good or better.

Is this fantasy football or football?

Vagitron

Zombo said:

Carr is better than both.

Z

Agreed. Fantasy football which I love has ruined how we evaluate players in the nfl. Carr is the best of that class.

The Gipper

@nickers said:
I thought Neil Lomax with the cardinals was pretty good.. he was the best they had since John Hart.. Injuries ended Lomax's career early.

He was a pretty good QB. i think he was a run n' shoot guy in college. The team around him was not very good.

The Gipper

@gumby73 said:
So 8 years later the closest to Ryan & Flaco are sitting at #2. Which one you want?

Interesting question....... they are very similar to me. Fair to say? Flacco has that ring which likely gives him the edge. But Ryan never had the kind of defense Flacco has had backing him up in his career.

The Gipper

@vagitron said:
Is this fantasy football or football?

Again, good question.....when it comes to a stat I use often: the PFR Career Production Average, Rivers actually has the slight advantage over both BR and Eli.....(combining total yds/TDs/percentages etc. etc.)

But those other two guys have the rings.

Here is the statistical breakdown for those Top 11 2004 draftees:

Completions/atts: Rivers 3462/5339 BR 3476/5423 Eli 3695/6227

Yards: Rivers 41,447 BR 42, 995 Eli 44,191

TDs: Rivers 281 BR 272 Eli 294

TD%: Rivers 5.3 BR 5.0 Eli 4.7

Ints: Rivers 135 BR 147 Eli 199

Int%: Rivers 2.5 BR 2.7 Eli 3.2

Y/Att: Rivers 7.8 BR 7.9 Eli 7.1

YPG: Rivers 252.7 BR 251.4 Eli 238.9

Rating: Rivers 95.5 BR 94.0 Eli 83.5

Comp % Rivers 64.8 BR 64.1 Eli 59.3

CA: River 151 BR 145 Eli 134

All very similar...Eli's Ints and completion % give him a lower rating I think. The big difference between these guys:

2 of them have 2 rings.....one has none.

How much of that is serendipity?