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The Curious Case of Eli Manning

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  • @boo-fagley said:

    Brady got better in the NFL and so did Brees.

    Favre was a ... 54.5 passer in college https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brett-favre-1.html Allen is better.

    Let the chimps feces throwing begin.

    You are right. Favre's, Brady, and Brees' cases do indeed help Allen's.

    But let's comment some things on those cases: It took 3 years to Brees to become the player we know he is, Brady played thanks to Bledsoe getting injured and Favre's resume in Atlanta is, per Wikipedia, 'He only attempted four passes in his career at Atlanta, was intercepted twice, and completed none of them. Favre took one other snap, which resulted in a sack for an eleven-yard loss.'  

    Moreover, all those three players weren't picked in first round (Brees #32, Favre #33, Brady #199). Neither of them were the first QB picked. 

    Favre  was chosen the 3rd QB in a defensive draft and also had an incredible arm and holds the record for the longest playing streak. He was tough as nails. 

    You can make a case that a players accuracy can improve in the pros, but either it is in the fewest of cases, or it takes HOFers to achieve that feat. That's why I don't want to draft Allen with either #1 or #4 (and those are the picks where I would accept getting a QB this draft), because there are many more things that can go wrong in that case that if you draft someone more ready. If we were talking about drafting him on second round, I wouldn't mind. 

    @nero said:

    You are right. Favre's, Brady, and Brees' cases do indeed help Allen's.

    But let's comment some things on those cases: It took 3 years to Brees to become the player we know he is, Brady played thanks to Bledsoe getting injured and Favre's resume in Atlanta is, per Wikipedia, 'He only attempted four passes in his career at Atlanta, was intercepted twice, and completed none of them. Favre took one other snap, which resulted in a sack for an eleven-yard loss.'  

    Moreover, all those three players weren't picked in first round (Brees #32, Favre #33, Brady #199). Neither of them were the first QB picked. 

    Favre  was chosen the 3rd QB in a defensive draft and also had an incredible arm and holds the record for the longest playing streak. He was tough as nails. 

    You can make a case that a players accuracy can improve in the pros, but either it is in the fewest of cases, or it takes HOFers to achieve that feat. That's why I don't want to draft Allen with either #1 or #4 (and those are the picks where I would accept getting a QB this draft), because there are many more things that can go wrong in that case that if you draft someone more ready. If we were talking about drafting him on second round, I wouldn't mind. 

    You are making my point. 

    Would you pick Brady, Farve or Brees 1st overall tomorrow?  

    Allen will gone by the time the Browns pick in round 2. 

  • @the-gipper said:

    This is completely different than the Curious Case of The Dog in the Night.

    The Dog did nothing in the night....and that was significant.

    Here...there is nothing  done here either, but is no significance.

    Especially with you here.

    @boo-fagley said:

    Especially with you here.

    You probably don't know the difference between litter and literature.

  • @nero said:

    You are right. Favre's, Brady, and Brees' cases do indeed help Allen's.

    But let's comment some things on those cases: It took 3 years to Brees to become the player we know he is, Brady played thanks to Bledsoe getting injured and Favre's resume in Atlanta is, per Wikipedia, 'He only attempted four passes in his career at Atlanta, was intercepted twice, and completed none of them. Favre took one other snap, which resulted in a sack for an eleven-yard loss.'  

    Moreover, all those three players weren't picked in first round (Brees #32, Favre #33, Brady #199). Neither of them were the first QB picked. 

    Favre  was chosen the 3rd QB in a defensive draft and also had an incredible arm and holds the record for the longest playing streak. He was tough as nails. 

    You can make a case that a players accuracy can improve in the pros, but either it is in the fewest of cases, or it takes HOFers to achieve that feat. That's why I don't want to draft Allen with either #1 or #4 (and those are the picks where I would accept getting a QB this draft), because there are many more things that can go wrong in that case that if you draft someone more ready. If we were talking about drafting him on second round, I wouldn't mind. 

    You are making my point. 

    Would you pick Brady, Farve or Brees 1st overall tomorrow?  

    Allen will gone by the time the Browns pick in round 2. 

    @boo-fagley said:

    You are making my point. 

    Would you pick Brady, Farve or Brees 1st overall tomorrow?  

    Allen will gone by the time the Browns pick in round 2. 

    Would you pick Peyton Manning or Kurt Warner 1st overall? 

    Of course you would, because we NOW know what player they have become. But there are several QBs going to the draft each year and I'd say only around half of the league has a franchise QB. 

    When you look at somebody's stats, you try to compare to known cases, like you have done with Brees, Brady and Favre. We do it here, NFL teams do it. 

    Problem is, I bet there are way more QBs that didn't success in the pros with those accuracy stats (56%) than the ones who succeeded; which as of today we only have found Favre. 

  • @nero said:

    You are right. Favre's, Brady, and Brees' cases do indeed help Allen's.

    But let's comment some things on those cases: It took 3 years to Brees to become the player we know he is, Brady played thanks to Bledsoe getting injured and Favre's resume in Atlanta is, per Wikipedia, 'He only attempted four passes in his career at Atlanta, was intercepted twice, and completed none of them. Favre took one other snap, which resulted in a sack for an eleven-yard loss.'  

    Moreover, all those three players weren't picked in first round (Brees #32, Favre #33, Brady #199). Neither of them were the first QB picked. 

    Favre  was chosen the 3rd QB in a defensive draft and also had an incredible arm and holds the record for the longest playing streak. He was tough as nails. 

    You can make a case that a players accuracy can improve in the pros, but either it is in the fewest of cases, or it takes HOFers to achieve that feat. That's why I don't want to draft Allen with either #1 or #4 (and those are the picks where I would accept getting a QB this draft), because there are many more things that can go wrong in that case that if you draft someone more ready. If we were talking about drafting him on second round, I wouldn't mind. 

    You are making my point. 

    Would you pick Brady, Farve or Brees 1st overall tomorrow?  

    Allen will gone by the time the Browns pick in round 2. 

    @boo-fagley said:

    Allen will gone by the time the Browns pick in round 2. 

    Then let some other team reach for a project like Allen.

    If the Browns were sitting around #20 and someone like yourself and cal were pushing to get him, that's one thing. I still think Allen is a highly-flawed QB prospect, but at #20 I could see the temptation I suppose.

    At #1 or #4 overall? No. Thank. You.

  • @boo-fagley said:

    Allen will gone by the time the Browns pick in round 2. 

    Then let some other team reach for a project like Allen.

    If the Browns were sitting around #20 and someone like yourself and cal were pushing to get him, that's one thing. I still think Allen is a highly-flawed QB prospect, but at #20 I could see the temptation I suppose.

    At #1 or #4 overall? No. Thank. You.

    @dutch-oven said:

    Then let some other team reach for a project like Allen.

    If the Browns were sitting around #20 and someone like yourself and cal were pushing to get him, that's one thing. I still think Allen is a highly-flawed QB prospect, but at #20 I could see the temptation I suppose.

    At #1 or #4 overall? No. Thank. You.

    Derek Carr, who we could have drafted, (de ja vu all over again), had the following accuracy percentages his

    last three years of college: Went in the second round even.

    62.6
    67.3
    68.9

  • @dutch-oven said:

    Then let some other team reach for a project like Allen.

    If the Browns were sitting around #20 and someone like yourself and cal were pushing to get him, that's one thing. I still think Allen is a highly-flawed QB prospect, but at #20 I could see the temptation I suppose.

    At #1 or #4 overall? No. Thank. You.

    Derek Carr, who we could have drafted, (de ja vu all over again), had the following accuracy percentages his

    last three years of college: Went in the second round even.

    62.6
    67.3
    68.9

    @calfoxwc said:

    Derek Carr, who we could have drafted, (de ja vu all over again), had the following accuracy percentages his

    last three years of college: Went in the second round even.

    62.6
    67.3
    68.9

    I'm a little confused cal - what do you mean by this?

  • Pat Mahomes at Texas Tech for what it's worth 😁

    Year Team GP Cmp Att Pct Yards TDs Int
    2014 Texas Tech 7 105 185 56.8 1,547 16 4
    2015 Texas Tech 13 364 573 63.5 4,653 36 15
    2016 Texas Tech 12 388 591 65.7 5,052 41 10
    College Totals 32 857 1,349 63.5 11,252 93 29
  • I wonder - Peyton Manning is the qb that is what Eli isn't. (from Wikipedia)

    His numbers 61.8 (freshman) 64.2, 63.9, 60.2

    I still be a slight fluctuation, probably due to changes each graduating class, but I have to admit -

    didn't fall below 60%. he's that accurate. It's confusing - Mike White at Kentucky -

    53.1 (Freshman), 50.4, but then as a junior - a whopping 67.3, 65.4 as a senior.

    Interesting - especially when they changed offenses, I think - starting his senior year.

         So, I"m confused. lol. Peyton - the accuracy light was always on. Eli, on-off-on-off, and Mike White? off, then on the last two years?

    Then there's Tom Brady - Freshman year- 1996 60%, 1997 a huge 80%, then 61.9 and 61 his jr and sr years.

    So, Brady and Peyton - they were just locked in accurate when they started? Some qb's can develop accuracy like Mike White did?

    Maybe some are locked in to inconsistent accuracy forever? The more I look at it, the more I'm not sure.

    Maybe Mike White is the best pro-ready qb in this draft.

    @calfoxwc said:

    I wonder - Peyton Manning is the qb that is what Eli isn't. (from Wikipedia)

    His numbers 61.8 (freshman) 64.2, 63.9, 60.2

    I still be a slight fluctuation, probably due to changes each graduating class, but I have to admit -

    didn't fall below 60%. he's that accurate. It's confusing - Mike White at Kentucky -

    53.1 (Freshman), 50.4, but then as a junior - a whopping 67.3, 65.4 as a senior.

    Interesting - especially when they changed offenses, I think - starting his senior year.

         So, I"m confused. lol. Peyton - the accuracy light was always on. Eli, on-off-on-off, and Mike White? off, then on the last two years?

    Then there's Tom Brady - Freshman year- 1996 60%, 1997 a huge 80%, then 61.9 and 61 his jr and sr years.

    So, Brady and Peyton - they were just locked in accurate when they started? Some qb's can develop accuracy like Mike White did?

    Maybe some are locked in to inconsistent accuracy forever? The more I look at it, the more I'm not sure.

    Maybe Mike White is the best pro-ready qb in this draft.

    First... please don't just cite percentages. They are not all equal.

    In his first two seasons at UM Brady was not the starter, so as a Frosh he had five attempts and as a Soph a whopping 15. Clearly those seasons' stats deserve no weight in any analysis. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tom-brady-1.html His Jr and Sr years are valid, but under rigorous statistical analysis the completion percentages are likely no different. What does look different are his TD:INT ratio. They suggest greater care with the ball that possibly is reflected in the slight drop in accuracy, but that'd never be provable.

    White? Special case all around given that he changed schools in the middle of his 4 years... and sat a year to boot. His rushing stats don't suggest a significantly different offensive use at the two schools. Looks like he was splitting time at USF and was "the man" at WKU. Looks like WKU's passing attacked suited the skill set of a more mature kid better... but a kid that was overloaded his Sr year when his pass attempt total skyrocketed.

    "Accuracy" is an output dependent on many variables. Some are innate... some learned... some circumstantial. Certainly there's not one magical combination of factors to the top. Certainly there are varying sensitivities of the output to variations in the variables.

  • @calfoxwc said:

    I wonder - Peyton Manning is the qb that is what Eli isn't. (from Wikipedia)

    His numbers 61.8 (freshman) 64.2, 63.9, 60.2

    I still be a slight fluctuation, probably due to changes each graduating class, but I have to admit -

    didn't fall below 60%. he's that accurate. It's confusing - Mike White at Kentucky -

    53.1 (Freshman), 50.4, but then as a junior - a whopping 67.3, 65.4 as a senior.

    Interesting - especially when they changed offenses, I think - starting his senior year.

         So, I"m confused. lol. Peyton - the accuracy light was always on. Eli, on-off-on-off, and Mike White? off, then on the last two years?

    Then there's Tom Brady - Freshman year- 1996 60%, 1997 a huge 80%, then 61.9 and 61 his jr and sr years.

    So, Brady and Peyton - they were just locked in accurate when they started? Some qb's can develop accuracy like Mike White did?

    Maybe some are locked in to inconsistent accuracy forever? The more I look at it, the more I'm not sure.

    Maybe Mike White is the best pro-ready qb in this draft.

    First... please don't just cite percentages. They are not all equal.

    In his first two seasons at UM Brady was not the starter, so as a Frosh he had five attempts and as a Soph a whopping 15. Clearly those seasons' stats deserve no weight in any analysis. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tom-brady-1.html His Jr and Sr years are valid, but under rigorous statistical analysis the completion percentages are likely no different. What does look different are his TD:INT ratio. They suggest greater care with the ball that possibly is reflected in the slight drop in accuracy, but that'd never be provable.

    White? Special case all around given that he changed schools in the middle of his 4 years... and sat a year to boot. His rushing stats don't suggest a significantly different offensive use at the two schools. Looks like he was splitting time at USF and was "the man" at WKU. Looks like WKU's passing attacked suited the skill set of a more mature kid better... but a kid that was overloaded his Sr year when his pass attempt total skyrocketed.

    "Accuracy" is an output dependent on many variables. Some are innate... some learned... some circumstantial. Certainly there's not one magical combination of factors to the top. Certainly there are varying sensitivities of the output to variations in the variables.

    @tour2ma said:

     so as a Frosh he had five attempts and as a Soph a whopping 15.

    yeah, I saw that after I posted, "der", but I didn't want to say anything, had to go, just meaningless. my bad.

  • The phrase is  “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time”. Not case.

    I also can’t find a single thing that indicates Fitzgerald was referencing that line. So Nero is right.

  • The phrase is  “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time”. Not case.

    I also can’t find a single thing that indicates Fitzgerald was referencing that line. So Nero is right.

    @tim-couch-pulls-out said:

    The phrase is  “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time”. Not case.

    I also can’t find a single thing that indicates Fitzgerald was referencing that line. So Nero is right.

    Case/ incident whatever the Genesis is the same. It comes from Sherlock Holmes.

  • @tim-couch-pulls-out said:

    The phrase is  “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time”. Not case.

    I also can’t find a single thing that indicates Fitzgerald was referencing that line. So Nero is right.

    Case/ incident whatever the Genesis is the same. It comes from Sherlock Holmes.

    @the-gipper said:

    Case/ incident whatever the Genesis is the same. It comes from Sherlock Holmes.

    The curious incident line comes from Holmes. 

    This isn’t that line. 

    So Nero was right. Good job Nero.

  • @the-gipper said:

    Case/ incident whatever the Genesis is the same. It comes from Sherlock Holmes.

    The curious incident line comes from Holmes. 

    This isn’t that line. 

    So Nero was right. Good job Nero.

    @tim-couch-pulls-out said:

    The curious incident line comes from Holmes. 

    This isn’t that line. 

    So Nero was right. Good job Nero.

    Are you two going to be put on ignored by tour because you were unnecessarily argumentative 

  • @tim-couch-pulls-out said:

    The curious incident line comes from Holmes. 

    This isn’t that line. 

    So Nero was right. Good job Nero.

    Are you two going to be put on ignored by tour because you were unnecessarily argumentative 

    @the-gipper said:

    Are you two going to be put on ignored by tour because you were unnecessarily argumentative 

    Probably not. I’m not arguing, I’m stating a fact.

  • Allen has some nice tools.. I just doubt he has the masculinity to lead men... We don't need the white version of Kizer...

  • Allen has some nice tools.. I just doubt he has the masculinity to lead men... We don't need the white version of Kizer...

    @nickers said:

    Allen has some nice tools.. I just doubt he has the masculinity to lead men... We don't need the white JaMarcus Russell...

    FTFY  😁

  • @the-gipper said:

    Are you two going to be put on ignored by tour because you were unnecessarily argumentative 

    Probably not. I’m not arguing, I’m stating a fact.

    @tim-couch-pulls-out said:

    Probably not.

    Definitely not...